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Todd Helton steroids or no steroids?

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Re: Todd Helton steroids or no steroids?

Postby TonyCee » Tue Jun 19, 2007 8:02 pm

Yoda wrote:
ScrappyDoo wrote:I'd say theres a 65% chance he did. Both he and Larry Walker posted some pretty impressive numbers for a while in Colorado. Maybe a lot of that power had something to do with roids as well as the thin air.


How did you arrive at 65%? Is that based on something or just out of your ass?


LOL. Nice reply, I love it. And am curious to hear the answer. !+)
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Re: Todd Helton steroids or no steroids?

Postby macdona1 » Tue Jun 19, 2007 9:53 pm

Wasn't the reason he missed all that time because of a back injury? I don't know about you but I think that would severely inhibit your power if you hurt your back, the after affects of back injuries can linger for years afterward. I hurt my back when I was in high school and it still bothers me when I golf and it is cold.
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Re: Todd Helton steroids or no steroids?

Postby sansav » Tue Jun 19, 2007 9:59 pm

I remember about 2 years back (before the Palmerio incident) that a Colorado announcer or sports talk show host had gotten a lot of flack for making mention of a rumor that Helton had cycled. At the time Helton vehemently denied ever using roids, but looking back his denial seems very Palmerio'ish. I somewat agree, "who care", but then again you try to predict production and it makes it tough when you have to factor "did he or didn't he". If this whole steriod era has taught us one thing it's that when there's smoke there has defintely been fire. Point being, I think he juiced and 15 HR's is about right this year. Mark Grace like production should be expected
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Re: Todd Helton steroids or no steroids?

Postby sansav » Tue Jun 19, 2007 10:03 pm

Here's the link on that "rumor" I was referencing, interesting article when you read it in today's context
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib ... roids.html
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Re: Todd Helton steroids or no steroids?

Postby ScrappyDoo » Wed Jun 20, 2007 9:36 am

Yoda wrote:
ScrappyDoo wrote:I'd say theres a 65% chance he did. Both he and Larry Walker posted some pretty impressive numbers for a while in Colorado. Maybe a lot of that power had something to do with roids as well as the thin air.


How did you arrive at 65%? Is that based on something or just out of your ass?



I just made it up. Both he and Larry Walker were pretty ripped back in the day and both saw a drop off in power in the last few years after the steroids era, although Walker was a little older.

Personally, I think a lot of people did steroids and sooner or later there is gonna be a bomb thats gonna drop and a lot of big names will be outed as roiders. I have no evidence, just my opinion.

I dont care if they did, it was obviously a problem back then, but they have made steps to fix it.

65% comes from I think there is a good chance he did, but you never know so Im not gonna say Im 100% certain, because obviously I have no proof.
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Re: Todd Helton steroids or no steroids?

Postby stepsinsc » Wed Jun 20, 2007 10:15 am

The decline in power could point the other way, after all. I would speculate most hitters see their power go before anything else once age catches up with them. Plus, he did play in Coors; and I don't mean modern day Coors I mean the launching pad it used to be. And it's not like he was hitting HRs at an unbelievable clip. He only had 2 years over 40, and then consistently hit 30.

I guess my point is this: if suspicion of steroids is only due to the fact that he started hitting less at the time when he was entering his mid-30s, then I think that suspicion is unfounded.
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Re: Todd Helton steroids or no steroids?

Postby Yoda » Wed Jun 20, 2007 11:50 am

ScrappyDoo wrote:
Yoda wrote:
ScrappyDoo wrote:I'd say theres a 65% chance he did. Both he and Larry Walker posted some pretty impressive numbers for a while in Colorado. Maybe a lot of that power had something to do with roids as well as the thin air.


How did you arrive at 65%? Is that based on something or just out of your ass?



I just made it up. Both he and Larry Walker were pretty ripped back in the day and both saw a drop off in power in the last few years after the steroids era, although Walker was a little older.

Personally, I think a lot of people did steroids and sooner or later there is gonna be a bomb thats gonna drop and a lot of big names will be outed as roiders. I have no evidence, just my opinion.

I dont care if they did, it was obviously a problem back then, but they have made steps to fix it.

65% comes from I think there is a good chance he did, but you never know so Im not gonna say Im 100% certain, because obviously I have no proof.


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These are two Helton 2001 cards. Going by popular belief, his steroid years would have been 2000 and 2001. So if these cards were made in 2001, then surely the pictures were taken around the time he allegedly took roids. Does he look like he was all jacked up to you?

I guess it's just fun to accuse players of taking steroids because of sharp peak/valley instead of understanding that there are other reasons behind the decline. In Helton's case, he has had a chronic back problem since the beginning of his career.
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Re: Todd Helton steroids or no steroids?

Postby Snakes Gould » Wed Jun 20, 2007 1:56 pm

i dont know, and i dont care. if you can hit .370 with 50 hr and 140 rbi, you probably should be taking them.


i was going to post him being accused as well by the announcer, and it really wouldnt surprise me if he did. id put it at 51/49 that he did, but i also put it at 50/50 that every other player did, but i dont care anymore. :^
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Re: Todd Helton steroids or no steroids?

Postby d18Mike » Thu Jun 21, 2007 9:41 am

Years from now we'll be able to look back and make some reasonable but inconclusive "assumptions" about PED use based on anomolies in skills and stats while taking injuries and age into account. The larger the player database gets, the easier it is to isolate the outliers.

Anyone who drops from 49 HRs to 30, 33, 22, 20 to 15 will probably be "flagged" for closer inspection, fair or unfair. I wouldn''t accuse anyone of a felony without some proof.

Regardless, Helton is a creature of that park. No question. In one of my favorite park effects analyses of all-time, 2 years ago someone concluded that, Todd Helton in KC would have produced Mike Sweeney's numbers and vice versa. People forget just how good Sweeney was while playing for a bad team. I think it's a good comp.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sweenmi01.shtml
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Re: Todd Helton steroids or no steroids?

Postby pelvis_kick » Thu Jun 21, 2007 10:06 am

d18Mike wrote:
Anyone who drops from 49 HRs to 30, 33, 22, 20 to 15 will probably be "flagged" for closer inspection, fair or unfair. I wouldn''t accuse anyone of a felony without some proof.



Its understandable to be flagged, but we shouldn't draw any conclusions. You can compare Helton to a player like Ernie Banks in HRs around his age. Here is a breakdown for a few years of Helton and his age and HR and Banks and his age and HRs.

Helton
27 years = 42 HR
28 years = 49 HR
29 years = 30 HR
30 years = 33 HR
31 years = 32 HR
32 years = 20 HR
33 years = 15 HR

Banks
27 years = 47 HR
28 years = 45 HR
29 years = 41 HR
30 years = 29 HR
31 years = 37 HR
32 years = 18 HR
33 years = 23 HR

- You can note a significant drop off of both players power numbers around the age of 32. While this is just one stat and one comparison, it shows that we cannot automatically assume he was juicing.
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