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Dunn Deal?: Dunn for Hensley and Hampson

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Re: Dunn Deal?: Dunn for Hensley and Hampson

Postby flloyd » Wed Jun 20, 2007 6:24 pm

ahuff wrote:His career stats show that he hits 1 homer per 9 at bats in Petco while he jacks 1 homer per 11 at bats in Cincy. I don't know that this is going to affect him a ton.


Too small of a sample size. If everyone else struggles at PETCO and Dunn himself usually struggles away from home (despite his success at PETCO so far) I strongly believe that Dunn's production will fall quite a bit if he is moved to San Diego.
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Re: Dunn Deal?: Dunn for Hensley and Hampson

Postby Fritzenhammer » Thu Jun 21, 2007 10:41 am

I don't believe fantasy owners need to worry about Dunn's power no matter where he goes. Although his home/road splits are undeniable, there's enough data to suggest that in the power department Dunn needs no help from the ballpark. I wrote a piece on this for my blog:

http://blog.fantasybaseballagent.com/2007/06/21/fantasy-impact-of-an-adam-dunn-trade/

http://www.hittrackeronline.com has a lot of good data on homerun distribution, and Dunn is a statistical outcast. Check my post for links to Greg Rybarczyk's article on Hardball Times.

HTH,

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Re: Dunn Deal?: Dunn for Hensley and Hampson

Postby quitesanemax » Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:13 am

Good blog. We'll have to wait and see if you are right. He's hitting for a high average (for him) right now, though, so it might be worth selling high on him now anyway. He's bound to come back down to his normal average. The question is who you get for him...
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Re: Dunn Deal?: Dunn for Hensley and Hampson

Postby Fritzenhammer » Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:24 am

quitesanemax wrote:Good blog. We'll have to wait and see if you are right. He's hitting for a high average (for him) right now, though, so it might be worth selling high on him now anyway. He's bound to come back down to his normal average. The question is who you get for him...


That's exactly it. It's tough to sell high on a guy like Dunn with the negative rep of being a whiff king and an average killer. Most of the time, holding him is better than turning him over for peanuts, especially if you believe like I do that he's going to go off one of these years and jack 50+.

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Re: Dunn Deal?: Dunn for Hensley and Hampson

Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:40 am

Fritzenhammer wrote:
quitesanemax wrote:Good blog. We'll have to wait and see if you are right. He's hitting for a high average (for him) right now, though, so it might be worth selling high on him now anyway. He's bound to come back down to his normal average. The question is who you get for him...


That's exactly it. It's tough to sell high on a guy like Dunn with the negative rep of being a whiff king and an average killer. Most of the time, holding him is better than turning him over for peanuts, especially if you believe like I do that he's going to go off one of these years and jack 50+.

FH


Yeah, he was sold in our keeper league preseason for Carlos Quentin. If I vetoed deals (which I don't) that one would have been vetoed BIG time. I'm happy with him but needed some speed and average help badly and was loaded in pitching so I just dealt him in a package where I sent Santana, Valverde, Dunn, and Bill Hall for Nathan, Ichiro, Rollins, and Hawpe (throw-in to even the players). I lose a bit on value especially if Santana does his typical second-half thing but my team needed the r/sb/avg that Ichiro and to a lesser extent Rollins can bring to the table.
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