Stolen Base category

[Erboes]

Ok - real quick:

Some serious points are not being talked about.
We need to step off the statistics for a minute and look at FLA as a team. They lost Pudge, Lee, and Encarnacion. Thats their 3, 4, and 5 hitters. They have replaced them with a young stud SS. If he lives up to the highest expectations, he wont replace either Lee or Pudge. No way Pierre scores as many runs this yr.

2nd, Jack McKeon is not a running manager. Take a look at Castillos numbers pre-McKeon v. post-McKeon. Thats a serious drop folks.

Do not expect Pierre to post numbers like last yr. All those comparisons being run are pretty interesting, but add up to not much of anything if your projections are way off. Comparing players stats from last yr means your great at lookng back on history and not much else.

I sort of agree with this. For example, I have Pierre dropping in value to $28, although I do believe he'll keep on running. McKeon didn't slow him down last year, why would he do it this season, considering they lost some of their power bats? Like I said before, though, I like Crawford better next season.

[Erboes]

Ok - real quick:

Some serious points are not being talked about.
We need to step off the statistics for a minute and look at FLA as a team. They lost Pudge, Lee, and Encarnacion. Thats their 3, 4, and 5 hitters. They have replaced them with a young stud SS. If he lives up to the highest expectations, he wont replace either Lee or Pudge. No way Pierre scores as many runs this yr.

2nd, Jack McKeon is not a running manager. Take a look at Castillos numbers pre-McKeon v. post-McKeon. Thats a serious drop folks.

Do not expect Pierre to post numbers like last yr. All those comparisons being run are pretty interesting, but add up to not much of anything if your projections are way off. Comparing players stats from last yr means your great at lookng back on history and not much else.

I sort of agree with this. For example, I have Pierre dropping in value to $28, although I do believe he'll keep on running. McKeon didn't slow him down last year, why would he do it this season, considering they lost some of their power bats? Like I said before, though, I like Crawford better next season.

[Erboes]

Ok - real quick:

Some serious points are not being talked about.
We need to step off the statistics for a minute and look at FLA as a team. They lost Pudge, Lee, and Encarnacion. Thats their 3, 4, and 5 hitters. They have replaced them with a young stud SS. If he lives up to the highest expectations, he wont replace either Lee or Pudge. No way Pierre scores as many runs this yr.

2nd, Jack McKeon is not a running manager. Take a look at Castillos numbers pre-McKeon v. post-McKeon. Thats a serious drop folks.

Do not expect Pierre to post numbers like last yr. All those comparisons being run are pretty interesting, but add up to not much of anything if your projections are way off. Comparing players stats from last yr means your great at lookng back on history and not much else.

I sort of agree with this. For example, I have Pierre dropping in value to $28, although I do believe he'll keep on running. McKeon didn't slow him down last year, why would he do it this season, considering they lost some of their power bats? Like I said before, though, I like Crawford better next season.

[Guest]

Ok - real quick:

Some serious points are not being talked about.
We need to step off the statistics for a minute and look at FLA as a team. They lost Pudge, Lee, and Encarnacion. Thats their 3, 4, and 5 hitters. They have replaced them with a young stud SS. If he lives up to the highest expectations, he wont replace either Lee or Pudge. No way Pierre scores as many runs this yr.

Agreed.

McKeon's not an idiot. The loss of those power bats means the phins will have to manufacture more runs. Pierre will have the green light at ALL times.

10 less runs, 10-15 more steals. Pierre's one of the hardest working players in the game. With 650 ab's, he'll steal 60+ again.

Take him in the 3rd with confidence.

[Brendo]

this is one of the best discussions i've come across on this board

my thought on SB's is that it's the least predictable category.

Anybody out there remember Roger Cedeno going early, and Ichiro going WAY early?

Especially with guys like Alex Sanchez or Roberts or Podsednik or even Crawford, if they dont get on, they don't run.
And anyone who can predict THAT will win his league every year.

I always target guys like Vlad, Abreu, Beltran with my early picks because they help in EVERY cat.

Pierre helps in a lot, but paying for him early kills you in 2 key categories---HR and RBI.

and lastly, SB is the one category on offense where someone comes out of nowhere evry single season.
take a flier or be active on the waiver wire and you'll finish in the top third of SB.

[jonnyblack]

Great discussion guys. Pierre is a wild card this year. I'm still haunted by his "Coors field" lack of production. Mkeon will let him run, but will he have the "mojo" this year that he had last year? or will he revert to some old tactics, pulling a Tony Womak? Hard to say, but he keeps moving up my draft list. By all accounts, he has the attitude necessary to exist with raw talent to be a star major league player. that counts for something.

[j7]

i think Pierre will be good again.. its gonna be interesting to see how teams handle him now that he's so well known for what he does.. maybe they catch on slow (managers didn't start walking bonds till the last few seasons).. but thats the only way i see his #'s taking a significant drop. if pitchers learn a quicker approach to home plate or something. otherwise i see him being consistent from here on.. even with the line-up a little worse than what it was. but i still wouldn't take him before the 5th or 6th rounds.. (no hr's)

oh yeah.. willie harris is my sleeper for sb's this year.. (i hope he's learning how to hit right now)

[stabone76]

If you arent sure what do to for SB's and dont want to overpay take sORIANO if you can, then after that take Beltran if you pick later... beltran will produce enough in conjunction with your regular middle infielders to keep you close in SB's, if you need more, you will know by the allstar break and adjust for it then

check out my rankings if you want to... its still getting started though. http://webpages.charter.net/way-out-there/

[stabone76]

I should also point out that there were only 7 hitters last season who had values higher than Pierre's $34. This is not to say that Pierre should go in the first round, but it should tell you that he's not a reach in the 3rd round.

If you want a better bargain whom I think will even be better than Pierre this season, then take Crawford. He may not hit for as high of an average or score as many runs as Pierre, but he should be around him in steals and hit for more power and RBI's. He's a real bargain if you ask me, considering he's rarely taken in the first 8 rounds.

You didnt have him in any leagues last year did you. If you did, you would think differently.

[stabone76]

Obviously, this changes from setup to setup but.....I use the 2B and 1 OF positions for all my speed in my 16-team auction.

I never go into a draft/auction to win the SB category, just enough to give a reasonable shot to get in the middle or upper tier of my league (16 teams) & then hope along the way to pick up a cheap source of them.

Last year, it was Scott Podsednik -- so I got lucky and it worked out. Most years, a guy that gets 15 steals (more like Coco Crisp) has been a sufficient boost to put me at the top or near it.

Dont even tell me you scouted Scotty Po