Stolen Base category - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Stolen Base category

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Feb 01, 2004 7:52 am

I have a little different take on this, since my league counts OPS and it's also a keeper and I have Soriano and O. Cabrera. Anyway, I think it's better to try and find some well-rounded guys that don't hurt you as much in other categories as some of the burners. I target 1 or 2 guys likely to be 20/20, one or two more likely to get me 15/15, and then all of my late round picks are guys who are likely to steal between 5 and 10 bases (you'd be amazed how many there are). I usually finish in the top 5 in SBs, and I'm also not vulnerable to one guy pulling a hamstring and killing my numbers!
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby Erboes » Sun Feb 01, 2004 10:11 am

Interesting topic. I went through the mock drafts and tried to combine players that went in similar points in the drafts. Here, Pierre was a 7th-8th round pick, and combining him with a power hitter who went in a similar round as Sanchez and compared him to a power hitter taken in the 7th-8th round with Sanchez (in other words, I combined Pierre's stats with an average year by Floyd, whom was taken at about the same point as Sanchez, then combined Sanchez's average year with someone who was taken at the same point as Pierre, who in this case was Edmunds). The Pierre/Floyd combo completely obliterated the Edmunds/D. Roberts team, and massacred any other combonation I could think of. In other words, Pierre going in the 7th round is a steal.

The question of Pierre going in the 3rd round was a different matter. I came up with three combinations, including one from the balanced approach. It tried to even out the AB's by pro-rating and used Robert's numbers from '02 and not last season. I tried to reach as much of an average season for these players as possible, including such things as Floyd's slippage in steals last season. I tried to be as objective as possible with this so as to find the truth. This is what I came up with:

Pierre/Floyd averages:

.295-95-14-65-34

Abreu/Sanders average:

.282-88-22-90-20

G. Anderson/D. Roberts averages:

.290-75-16-75-25

As you can see, the Anderson group lags behind both, while the other two are close. Overall, I think the Pierre/Floyd grouping comes out ahead.

It is my estimation that both Sanders and Floyd went too low, but changing the players around only altered the numbers slightly. It is my belief that Pierre is NOT overvalued if he's taken in the 3rd round. Others may disagree with me, but taking him in the 3rd round or later is quite a bargain.
Erboes
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1433
Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby mikcou » Sun Feb 01, 2004 11:18 am

Erboes wrote:Interesting topic. I went through the mock drafts and tried to combine players that went in similar points in the drafts. Here, Pierre was a 7th-8th round pick, and combining him with a power hitter who went in a similar round as Sanchez and compared him to a power hitter taken in the 7th-8th round with Sanchez (in other words, I combined Pierre's stats with an average year by Floyd, whom was taken at about the same point as Sanchez, then combined Sanchez's average year with someone who was taken at the same point as Pierre, who in this case was Edmunds). The Pierre/Floyd combo completely obliterated the Edmunds/D. Roberts team, and massacred any other combonation I could think of. In other words, Pierre going in the 7th round is a steal.

The question of Pierre going in the 3rd round was a different matter. I came up with three combinations, including one from the balanced approach. It tried to even out the AB's by pro-rating and used Robert's numbers from '02 and not last season. I tried to reach as much of an average season for these players as possible, including such things as Floyd's slippage in steals last season. I tried to be as objective as possible with this so as to find the truth. This is what I came up with:

Pierre/Floyd averages:

.295-95-14-65-34

Abreu/Sanders average:

.282-88-22-90-20

G. Anderson/D. Roberts averages:

.290-75-16-75-25

As you can see, the Anderson group lags behind both, while the other two are close. Overall, I think the Pierre/Floyd grouping comes out ahead.

It is my estimation that both Sanders and Floyd went too low, but changing the players around only altered the numbers slightly. It is my belief that Pierre is NOT overvalued if he's taken in the 3rd round. Others may disagree with me, but taking him in the 3rd round or later is quite a bargain.


interesting... I would think about taking Pierre in the third round but I dont think I would go as high as a second round pick...
mikcou
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 2060
Joined: 28 Oct 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Red Sox Nation

Postby Erboes » Sun Feb 01, 2004 11:32 am

I should also point out that there were only 7 hitters last season who had values higher than Pierre's $34. This is not to say that Pierre should go in the first round, but it should tell you that he's not a reach in the 3rd round.

If you want a better bargain whom I think will even be better than Pierre this season, then take Crawford. He may not hit for as high of an average or score as many runs as Pierre, but he should be around him in steals and hit for more power and RBI's. He's a real bargain if you ask me, considering he's rarely taken in the first 8 rounds.
Erboes
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1433
Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby j7 » Sun Feb 01, 2004 11:37 am

i wouldn't go that high for pierre... with all the other available steals, its not worth 3rd round when you only get 1 hr. did anyone say corey patterson yet? i put him in the same boat as baldelli (30 steals, with other 4 stats being good) .. but i'd take patterson a little earlier than rocco... luis matos could be a steal (heh).. and tike redman is my last resort option if guys like sanchez get taken (i should probly keep my mouth shut).. oh, and then i'd be hoping for figgins to take over eckstein's job ;-)

EDIT: i agree, Crawford is GREATNESS if he goes that late
j7
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 286
Joined: 6 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Stolen Base Category

Postby esm » Sun Feb 01, 2004 12:51 pm

Lots of good, thoughtful discussion here, well done. I especially was impressed by the duo analyses.

Carl Crawford was a late season pick-up for me and did very well. He isn't the hitter that Pierre is and doesn't have the offensive support with Tampa Bay that Pierre has with Florida.

In my 2004 slow draft I picked Pierre over Ichiro (despite the latter's HRs) because with his lack of Ks at bat and speed Pierre has an incredible upside. While consistently good stats is a major factor in assigning value, the hard to predict upside factor is a major, subjective consideration.

Of all the speed merchants out there, who, other than Juan Pierre, would you put a the top?
3andOut: Whenever I feel blue, I start breathing again.
esm
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor

User avatar

Posts: 92
Joined: 26 Nov 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: California

Postby Guest » Sun Feb 01, 2004 12:57 pm

Obviously, this changes from setup to setup but.....I use the 2B and 1 OF positions for all my speed in my 16-team auction.

I never go into a draft/auction to win the SB category, just enough to give a reasonable shot to get in the middle or upper tier of my league (16 teams) & then hope along the way to pick up a cheap source of them.

Last year, it was Scott Podsednik -- so I got lucky and it worked out. Most years, a guy that gets 15 steals (more like Coco Crisp) has been a sufficient boost to put me at the top or near it.
Guest


Home Cafe: Football
Friendliness: %

Stolen Base Category

Postby esm » Sun Feb 01, 2004 1:22 pm

In response to "Guest", obviously you are in a Roto league so SBs aren't as important to you as they would in H2H competition.

But your approach is flawed in that players like Pierre and Ichiro also contribute to batting avg. and runs scored. Both hit over .300 and 100 or more runs scored. Pierre played in every game, Ichiro in all but 3.

Damn, guess I was lucky to get Pierre with a 4th round pick. Ichiro was the next guy picked.
3andOut: Whenever I feel blue, I start breathing again.
esm
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor

User avatar

Posts: 92
Joined: 26 Nov 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: California

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sun Feb 01, 2004 1:25 pm

Ok - real quick:

Some serious points are not being talked about.
We need to step off the statistics for a minute and look at FLA as a team. They lost Pudge, Lee, and Encarnacion. Thats their 3, 4, and 5 hitters. They have replaced them with a young stud SS. If he lives up to the highest expectations, he wont replace either Lee or Pudge. No way Pierre scores as many runs this yr.

2nd, Jack McKeon is not a running manager. Take a look at Castillos numbers pre-McKeon v. post-McKeon. Thats a serious drop folks.

Do not expect Pierre to post numbers like last yr. All those comparisons being run are pretty interesting, but add up to not much of anything if your projections are way off. Comparing players stats from last yr means your great at lookng back on history and not much else.
Image
Cornbread Maxwell
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertPick 3 ChampionSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 5694
Joined: 7 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Erboes » Sun Feb 01, 2004 1:29 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Ok - real quick:

Some serious points are not being talked about.
We need to step off the statistics for a minute and look at FLA as a team. They lost Pudge, Lee, and Encarnacion. Thats their 3, 4, and 5 hitters. They have replaced them with a young stud SS. If he lives up to the highest expectations, he wont replace either Lee or Pudge. No way Pierre scores as many runs this yr.

2nd, Jack McKeon is not a running manager. Take a look at Castillos numbers pre-McKeon v. post-McKeon. Thats a serious drop folks.

Do not expect Pierre to post numbers like last yr. All those comparisons being run are pretty interesting, but add up to not much of anything if your projections are way off. Comparing players stats from last yr means your great at lookng back on history and not much else.


I sort of agree with this. For example, I have Pierre dropping in value to $28, although I do believe he'll keep on running. McKeon didn't slow him down last year, why would he do it this season, considering they lost some of their power bats? Like I said before, though, I like Crawford better next season.
Erboes
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1433
Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: unioreimi and 11 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact