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Adam Jones

Postby Dr. StrangeGlove » Fri Jun 15, 2007 7:36 pm

Anybody have any insight into Adam Jones (Sea. OF)? He leads the PCL in total bases .405 OBP 15/52 HR/RBI in 61 games. Made a brief appearance last year. Any chance he could get a call up?
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Re: Adam Jones

Postby Omaha Red Sox » Sun Jun 17, 2007 11:08 am

I was checking out some fans' opinions on Jones from U.S.S. Mariner and posted some below...for what it's worth.

June 13-U.S.S. Mariner wrote:Coming into today’s game, Adam Jones was hitting .317/.392/.581, in large part due to his surge since the calendar changed to May and he got over the wrist problem that sapped his power in April. Tonight, he continued his torrid June pace, going 4 for 5 with another home run.

Since May 1st, Jones is 56 for 163 with 14 home runs. That’s a .344/.420/.700 line.

.344/.420/.700. 27 of his 56 hits have gone for extra bases. Did I mention that he’s turned himself into a pretty good defensive outfielder? And he can run? Or that he has the best outfield arm in the organization?

He’s better than Raul Ibanez, Jose Guillen, Jose Vidro, Richie Sexson, and Ben Broussard. Better than all of them. If the Mariners are serious about making the playoffs, Adam Jones should be on the 25 man roster. Getting him into the line-up isn’t going to be easy for Mike Hargrove, but he’s not paid to do an easy job, and the Mariners can’t let the 4th or 5th best hitter in the organization sit in Tacoma for much longer.

It’s time for Adam Jones to be a Seattle Mariner.


June 14-U.S.S. Mariner wrote:You left someone of your list. Yes, I’d rather have Adam Jones in our outfield than Ibanez, Jose Guillen, Jose Vidro, Richie Sexson, or Ben Broussard, but I’d want him in our outfield ahead of one more Mariner outfielder. The Mariners need to trade Ichiro to open up a spot for Adam Jones. Ichiro is so so so mediocre. On a scale from one to ten, I give Ichiro a six on offense. He gets a ten on defense, so his overall score is a little higher than six, but I’d put Jones out there ahead of him in a second.


June 14-U.S.S. Mariner wrote:Adam has been a perplexing case study into Bavasi’s player development philosophy. Bavasi believes in rapid promotion to set a player up for failure but seems hesitant to pull the trigger when a player has nothing left to prove. I know this is a case where Bavasi’s motivation to “win now” basically created a 25 man roster that had no room for the possibility that his player development philosophy would work so well with Adam. But does Bavasi truly believe in his philosophy or not?


June 14-U.S.S. Mariner wrote:If Adam Jones was left handed, he’d be up. The problem is the extreme right-handedness of this line-up. You can’t take a left handed bat out of the line-up for Adam Jones. This means the only way is to move/sit either Sexson or Guillen. I don’t see either happening. Adam Jones is going to be in Tacoma until September.


vs Left .333 .378 .623 1.002
vs Right .324 .407 .588 .995


And I thought this was funny:
June 14-U.S.S. Mariner wrote:Adam Jones was a pitcher in high school, so there might be another way to get him into the lineup every fifth day. (Plus, on those days, the M’s could use the DH to bat in Bloomquist’s place).
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Re: Adam Jones

Postby Omaha Red Sox » Sun Jun 17, 2007 12:54 pm

Yahoo wrote:Adam Jones, Sea, OF (ETA – All-Star break)
There isn't an opening for Jones in Seattle yet, but he's proving to be Major League ready, perhaps forcing the Mariners to make some kind of decision on their five-tooled star in the coming weeks. Jones is among the top seven in the Triple-A PCL in home runs (13), RBI (49) and Runs (44). He's also stolen three bases and holds a .970 OPS. Unfortunately, he's fanned at a prolific rate (58 K in 57 games), but that's not too discouraging when you consider he's shown a much-improved ability to draw walks. His 23 free passes are only five fewer than the 28 he induced in 96 games last season. It'll be interesting to see how the Mariners decide to handle this situation but, whatever they do, be sure you're paying attention. Jones picked up 32 games of big league seasoning last season and, when he finally lands an every-day gig in Seattle, he's got the type of athleticism that plays well in the fantasy realm.
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Re: Adam Jones

Postby Dr. StrangeGlove » Sun Jun 17, 2007 11:27 pm

Omaha Red Sox wrote:
Yahoo wrote:Adam Jones, Sea, OF (ETA – All-Star break)
There isn't an opening for Jones in Seattle yet, but he's proving to be Major League ready, perhaps forcing the Mariners to make some kind of decision on their five-tooled star in the coming weeks. Jones is among the top seven in the Triple-A PCL in home runs (13), RBI (49) and Runs (44). He's also stolen three bases and holds a .970 OPS. Unfortunately, he's fanned at a prolific rate (58 K in 57 games), but that's not too discouraging when you consider he's shown a much-improved ability to draw walks. His 23 free passes are only five fewer than the 28 he induced in 96 games last season. It'll be interesting to see how the Mariners decide to handle this situation but, whatever they do, be sure you're paying attention. Jones picked up 32 games of big league seasoning last season and, when he finally lands an every-day gig in Seattle, he's got the type of athleticism that plays well in the fantasy realm.


Thanks for the info. ;D His K rate seemed a little high but it looks like it is more an issue of moving an veteran outfielder to make a spot for him. They also have Balentien but I dont think he is ready yet.
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Re: Adam Jones

Postby Omaha Red Sox » Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:44 am

I got him on my farm as well as Pie. ;D
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Re: Adam Jones

Postby clarkw267 » Mon Jun 18, 2007 4:19 pm

The quote about Ichiro being mediocre on offense kills me..

The guy is a career .330 + hitter, who has over 200 + Hits and 30+ SBs in every season he's played here.

Also, after watching him take BP when he was in Detroit, I'd say without a doubt he could hit 25 + HRs if he wanted to hit .275-.280 for a season. He was hitting bomb after bomb, and this was in Comerica.

Ichiro is a magician with the bat, and anyone who calls him mediocre is just a moron.
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Re: Adam Jones

Postby legoshoe » Thu Jul 26, 2007 1:35 pm

Anyone think Seattle will make a move before the deadline that allows Jones an everyday spot in Seattle?
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Re: Adam Jones

Postby Omaha Red Sox » Wed Dec 19, 2007 6:18 pm

Did not want to start a new thread so I revived this one.

Why Adam Jones Is Totally Awesome
By Jeff
Posted on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 06:31:45 PM EDT

I didn't think it would come to this, but here we are. And besides, anything to distract us from Silva.

I'm going to talk about glovework first since it's the point that a lot of people seem to be overlooking.

DEFENSE

Once a shortstop, Adam Jones is an extraordinary athlete regarded as a potential Gold Glover in center (I know, I know, Gold Gloves are worthless, but you get the point). Although his experience in the outfield was limited, Jones was terrific in Tacoma last year, helping clowns like Jorge Campillo maintain their appealing ERA's. Then, after getting promoted to Seattle, he had to adjust on the fly to playing a corner and, despite a few ugly drops, performed quite well in a small sample.

Obviously, Ichiro's going to stay in center for as long as he wants, so Jones' immediate future is in right. But don't fall into the trap of assuming this negates the impact of his glove; if Jones is good in CF, then he should be great in RF, relative to his peers (which is how these things are judged).

The way I figure, Jones' defensive contribution probably looks something like this:

Image

(Ed. note: not scientific)

He's a virtual lock to be above-average, and I think, going forward, he should be something like a +10 < x < +20 defensive player in right. Which'll make him stand out, since generally speaking people that good are handed a job in center. This is good news for a pitching staff that isn't going to strike many people out (unless it includes Bedard, but in that case Jones is gone and none of this means anything to us anyway).

Don't ignore the glove. It's an important part of what makes AJ so special.

OFFENSE

AJ has worked hard to eliminate the biggest holes in his offensive game. At this point, he's pretty much a finished product. No, he's never going to draw a ton of walks, and he's always going to strike out a little bit, but that's just his approach. No longer is he easily disposed of with a good breaking ball, and no longer does he give up when he's got two strikes. He's an aggressive, productive player capable of hitting for both average and power.

In a year during which he didn't turn 22 until August, Adam Jones put up a .968 OPS in AAA. The only players in his age group to perform that well were Felix Pie and Billy Butler. That's an impressive accomplishment no matter how you look at it, and it represents AJ's mammoth leap forward, after never previously having topped .849. It's amazing what can happen when a prospect puts everything together.

Yeah, it's possible that AJ could bust in the Majors, but by the time a player performs that well in AAA, a lot of the unpredictability is gone. We're not talking about a Greg Halman here, someone with loads of talent but a long way to go. Prospects who succeed in AAA, as a group, tend to go on to have strong ML careers, with few exceptions. If AJ busts, it'll be because he either starts struggling with injuries or has a huge hole in his swing that as of yet has gone undetected.

Let's put it another way. We know for a fact that a low percentage of prospects who've performed at AJ's level turn into busts. How does this compare to "established Major Leaguers"? In a completely informal study, I grabbed 30 totally random (Excel randomized it for me to remove any bias) qualified ML batters from 2006 and looked at how they did in 2007. Six of them lost at least 20% of their 2006 OPS. In other words, 6 of 30 established Major Leaguers "busted" this year. The odds of an elite prospect like Jones stagnating as a AAAA player are roughly equivalent to those of a "reliable veteran" suddenly doing the same thing.

Let's get over this fear of the Major League adjustment. Yeah, it exists, but very, very rarely does it turn an elite talent like Jones into a bad player. Most people get over it. The odds are on AJ's side.

How do you project his offense? If he ends up like Juan Encarnacion, he's a little above-average overall, thanks to his glove. If he ends up like Reggie Sanders, he's a star. And if he ends up like Curtis Granderson, he's a superstar and eventual HoF candidate. I'll leave it up to you to assign your own probabilities, but the fact of the matter is that if AJ's destined to be any less than at least an average player, he's going to have to really throw us for a loop at the plate. Even if he only repeats last year's small sample .246/.300/.400 for the rest of his life, he's still a decent player. And I think that's the absolute floor.

(For the record, yes, being right-handed in Safeco would take a toll on AJ, but it wouldn't be like Mike Cameron or anything. Jones is a lot better at going the other way.)

COST

Adam Jones is under team control for the next six years. He won't be due for arbitration until the fall of 2010. Over the next three seasons, he'll earn something like $2-3m combined, followed by escalating annual salaries depending on how he performs. But at no point over those six years will he earn FA money. That's not how it works. You know how we think front offices are getting bent over by FA wages? It's the exact opposite for players under team control. They get paid far less than they deserve because they don't have any leverage.

These players - the ones still under team control - are the most valuable players in the game. They give you a lot of production for a very low cost, offering you a ton of flexibility at other positions. You know, the kind of flexibility that enables you to throw huge money at the best free agents on the market to complete the roster. You don't want to be in a position where you're constantly reloading with FA's. You want to be in a position where you're constantly reloading with younger players earning lower salaries. The upside of taking this approach is enormous.

OVERALL

At the very least, Adam Jones is an average overall player who won't be getting paid very much money for a long, long time. The overwhelming probability, however, is that he's even more, a good to great player earning pennies on the dollar for the next six years. Six years! I hate the word "untouchable," because I think you should always be willing to entertain offers for everyone on the roster, but the list of players for whom I'd be willing to give away Adam Jones is only a little longer than the same list for Felix. Forget about whether he'll end up with an OPS of .750 or .800 or .850 or .900; that's only a fraction of the picture, and it undersells his value to the organization. There's so much more to it that people just aren't talking about enough in light of all the Bedard discussion.

I can't make any guarantees as to what lies ahead for Adam Jones. Gun to my head, though, if you forced me to make one, it would be this - trade Adam Jones and you will regret it. Fast.
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Re: Adam Jones

Postby bloodface » Thu Dec 27, 2007 4:29 am

I don't know if you were the one who wrote that piece, but it makes so many jumps to conclusions that it's not a very good piece of analysis, in my humble opinion. Adam Jones will not be great this year.
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Re: Adam Jones

Postby Omaha Red Sox » Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:18 am

bloodface wrote:I don't know if you were the one who wrote that piece, but it makes so many jumps to conclusions that it's not a very good piece of analysis, in my humble opinion. Adam Jones will not be great this year.


I didn't write it. It's from a Mariners blog of some sort. Guy's a bit of a fan I think... :-b
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