Just thought it would be an interesting debate as to who is move valuable. Everyone puts Reyes as a top three player while Grady is back in the late first/early second range.
2007 season pace
J.Reyes 117 R 5 hr 73rbi 81sb .308
G.Sizemore 139 R 28hr 82rbis 46sb .286
I can see them being pretty equal in runs, rbis, and avg at the end of the season. I think Grady will end up with around 20 more HRs then Reyes, and Reyes will have 35-40 more sbs. So, who would you rather have on your team for the next 5 years?
Reyes. I'd expact those paces to be fairly close to the truth at the end, with one difference. Reyes doesn't finish with 5 HR's. He's not a power hitter, but he's not a 5 HR guy either. I'm almost positive he'll finish with at least 10, and likely at least 15. Both are great talent, but the scarcity of the SB gives Reyes the edge in my mind.
those look like very plausible lines. so the question is essentially: which is worth more 35-40 steals or ~20 dingers? i'd have to side with the steals, since i (maybe incorrectly) find it easier to gain ground in hrs from the wire than sbs. i suppose it would also depend on whether its roto or h2h. i find this to be a very interesting comparison, plus you could also make the case that both players lead off for the top offenses in their respective leagues.
pokerplaya wrote: I'm almost positive he'll finish with at least 10, and likely at least 15.
The homerism is starting to squeak out I think.....I'll say 10 is his ceiling this year.
Eh, I'm not so sure. While it is possible his 19 HRs a year ago are an anomoly, it's very likely he could hit a tear like last August where he put 7 out of the yard, and even if he puts 2 out the rest of June and 3 in each of July and September, he's at 15. I'd put that as his absolute ceiling, but 11 or 12 I think are attainable (though when we're using 10 as the mark, we're really splitting hairs). The thing about Reyes this season is his approach seems to be different than last season. His BB Rate is way up from a year ago (12.2% compared to 7.6% last year and 6.0% career), his OBP is nearly 40 points higher than last year, while his ISO is 50 points lower, so it's his OBP that's carrying a near identical OPS. It's also worth noting that his BABIP is up this year, as is his RC/27. Another thing worth noting is that his HR/FB rate last season was through the roof at 10.2%, and it's through the floor this year at 2.8% (5.8% career), so he should settle somewhere in between there. Eh, maybe 10 long balls should be all we expect out of Jose this year -- he just doesn't seem to be swinging for the fences the same way he did last year, but he's on base a lot more, so it's fine by me.
bigh0rt wrote:Eh, maybe 10 long balls should be all we expect out of Jose this year -- he just doesn't seem to be swinging for the fences the same way he did last year, but he's on base a lot more, so it's fine by me.
...this is where I am at. I don't think they want him swinging for the fences like last year....I would think they would much rather have him with the higher OBP than a few more home runs.
bigh0rt wrote:Eh, maybe 10 long balls should be all we expect out of Jose this year -- he just doesn't seem to be swinging for the fences the same way he did last year, but he's on base a lot more, so it's fine by me.
...this is where I am at. I don't think they want him swinging for the fences like last year....I would think they would much rather have him with the higher OBP than a few more home runs.
i'm actually enjoying the higher obp quite a bit. to me it just means he plunks himself on first more often and then attempts to steal second, which is always welcomed. plus, i don't really care if my SS hits dingers, thats what my CI/OF is for.
also, does anyone else get a little annoyed when he hits a triple? i know its an easy run, but it means he won't be stealing.
They are close but I'd probably take Reyes in fantasy baseball. I think I would rather have Sizemore in real life though since he is more of a complete player. His offensive production as a CF is outstanding.
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by moose32 » Wed Jun 13, 2007 4:36 pm 
