pokerplaya wrote: I'm almost positive he'll finish with at least 10, and likely at least 15.
The homerism is starting to squeak out I think.....I'll say 10 is his ceiling this year.
Eh, I'm not so sure. While it is possible his 19 HRs a year ago are an anomoly, it's very likely he could hit a tear like last August where he put 7 out of the yard, and even if he puts 2 out the rest of June and 3 in each of July and September, he's at 15. I'd put that as his absolute ceiling, but 11 or 12 I think are attainable (though when we're using 10 as the mark, we're really splitting hairs). The thing about Reyes this season is his approach seems to be different than last season. His BB Rate is way up from a year ago (12.2% compared to 7.6% last year and 6.0% career), his OBP is nearly 40 points higher than last year, while his ISO is 50 points lower, so it's his OBP that's carrying a near identical OPS. It's also worth noting that his BABIP is up this year, as is his RC/27. Another thing worth noting is that his HR/FB rate last season was through the roof at 10.2%, and it's through the floor this year at 2.8% (5.8% career), so he should settle somewhere in between there. Eh, maybe 10 long balls should be all we expect out of Jose this year -- he just doesn't seem to be swinging for the fences the same way he did last year, but he's on base a lot more, so it's fine by me.