Dontrelle Willis

[trevisc]

first cafe post...viewed cafe last year, might as well join in...

willis will probably be drafted ahead of better options.

i think teams had a learning curve for his delivery. he certainly didn't fool the giants and cubs in the postseason. i think the nomo analogy was an example of another strange delivery, not a knock on nomo.

not a bust, but not a monster either.

Welcome to the Cafe!

[thaklanksta]

I have both Dontrelle and Nomo on my team (NL Only).

I look forward to having Willis on my team for an entire season.

Sure he wont be CY young Material like he was in the first half but he should put up pretty solid #'s.

[cannonarm21]

Whoa now. Nomo has had a stellar career. A fine addition to any fantasy team. I really think thats a terrible comparison.

Willis is hyped a bit right now - coming off a wonderful rookie campaign and World Series appearance. The chance that he will have upside value where he is being drafted is debateable. The jury is still out as to whether he will have a good career in baseball, or if he was a one yr wonder. Im not gonna make that guess. Im shooting from the hip here, but Im assuming there have been many rookie SPs who performed as well as Dontrell, but never made a long term career for themselves for one reason or another (injury due to mechanics, lack of maturity, telegraphing pitches, etc...). He will be much more valuable if he can put another season together like last yr. Given the revamping of the Marlins, Im afraid it isnt
going to happen. He will see less run support, and will have a different C calling the shots.

The point is, he could be the next Oswalt, or the next Ankiel. Where I assume he will go in most drafts will be a best case scenario - meaning whoever drafts him will more than likely be paying full price for his 2003 numbers, and I dont see the value in that.

I'm not sure you totally understood what I was saying. I was referring to the fact they both have an unorthodox delivery. People did get used to Nomo the more they saw him. Stats don't lie.
Nomo's first 3 years- 43-29, 3.32 ERA
4th,5th and 6th season- 26-32, 4.83 ERA

I'm sorry you thought that was such a "terrible" comparison. Is a career record of 114-90 really a "stellar" career?

[GameOn]

I think he will be good, but don't expect him to be lights out like the first half of last year.

[Cornbread Maxwell]

Whoa now. Nomo has had a stellar career. A fine addition to any fantasy team. I really think thats a terrible comparison.

Willis is hyped a bit right now - coming off a wonderful rookie campaign and World Series appearance. The chance that he will have upside value where he is being drafted is debateable. The jury is still out as to whether he will have a good career in baseball, or if he was a one yr wonder. Im not gonna make that guess. Im shooting from the hip here, but Im assuming there have been many rookie SPs who performed as well as Dontrell, but never made a long term career for themselves for one reason or another (injury due to mechanics, lack of maturity, telegraphing pitches, etc...). He will be much more valuable if he can put another season together like last yr. Given the revamping of the Marlins, Im afraid it isnt
going to happen. He will see less run support, and will have a different C calling the shots.

The point is, he could be the next Oswalt, or the next Ankiel. Where I assume he will go in most drafts will be a best case scenario - meaning whoever drafts him will more than likely be paying full price for his 2003 numbers, and I dont see the value in that.

I'm not sure you totally understood what I was saying. I was referring to the fact they both have an unorthodox delivery. People did get used to Nomo the more they saw him. Stats don't lie.
Nomo's first 3 years- 43-29, 3.32 ERA
4th,5th and 6th season- 26-32, 4.83 ERA

I'm sorry you thought that was such a "terrible" comparison. Is a career record of 114-90 really a "stellar" career?

But what about his last 3 yrs? 45-29 with a ERA that dropped each yr. Apparantly the opposing hitters were fooled by his unorthodox delivery, then they caught on, and then were once again perplexed.

Im gonna say that any pitcher with 283 games under his belt with a winning record had a stellar career - better than most baseball pitchers, right? Not to mention he is usually in the top 20 in Ks every yr.

[cannonarm21]

I believe Nomo adjusted to the hitters. Nomo is not the same pitcher he was when he started out. He uses his changeup twice as much as he did early on.
I guess we have a different definition of stellar. Agree to disagree on this one I guess.

[Subversive]

I think Dontrelle is a prime candidate for injury, with his unorthodox mechanics & delivery. He will also be pitching to a new catcher, and likely have a weaker team behind him. I will not be pursuing him in any of my leagues this year, unless I can get him for under $5 (which I won't be able to) in my auction league, there are just too many decent pitchers out there, and I think the sophomore slump is a very likely scenario for him.

[Madison]

I believe that Willis will be ok for awhile this year. Not great, just ok. Then he will have a shoulder or arm problem and miss some time. Then he will start to turn up the jets in '05.

That's my future prognosis for Willis.