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Season Long Fantasy Strategies

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Re: Season Long Fantasy Strategies

Postby Bwanna » Tue Jun 12, 2007 2:50 pm

bigh0rt wrote:The Lovable Losers posted a great analysis here of what ratios a pitcher must carry vs. how many saves he must record to make him worth owning in standard roto leagues back earlier this season.


I'm not having any luck finding the posting you're referring to here ^... any chance you can find it?
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Re: Season Long Fantasy Strategies

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Jun 12, 2007 3:08 pm

Bwanna wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:The Lovable Losers posted a great analysis here of what ratios a pitcher must carry vs. how many saves he must record to make him worth owning in standard roto leagues back earlier this season.


I'm not having any luck finding the posting you're referring to here ^... any chance you can find it?

Took freakin' 17 minutes to find. :S

If you don't do the math I can see how you could think that.

Let's do a simple example though. Let's look at the effect that 2 relievers would have on an average 12-team league team's era/whip.

First of all, we'll define an average team in a 12-team mixed Yahoo league with 1250 max ip. According to a research project here on the boards done by GoToWarMissAgnes awhile back an average team would have a 3.80era with a 1.28whip over 1250ip.

Let's create two hypothetical relievers to give us some controls. We'll create both with 70ip as that's the number of innings that you threw out there. We'll also vary both reliever by the same amount from our mid-point. Our outstanding reliever will have a 2.30era with a 1.03whip while our craptastic reliever will have a 5.30era with a 1.53whip. We'll replace 70ip of our 1250ip with each reliever and see what the result is.

Outstanding Reliever: 3.716era, 1.266whip
Craptastic Reliever: 3.884era, 1.294whip

That doesn't look like much at first glance. But a 3.716era is good enough to hit right at the 60th percentile mark. And a 3.884era is slightly worse than the 40th percentile mark. So adding 70 innings at a 2.30era to an average 12 team league would give you about 1.2 points in the standings whereas adding 70 innings at a 5.30era would cost you about 1.2 points in the standings. Overall looking at the difference between a top-tier closer and your Jorge Julio's of the world are a difference in era of 2.4 points. Those same numbers hold true on the whip side as well...I won't bore you all with the numbers but it's about 60th percentile with the outstanding 70ip and 40th percentile with the craptastic 70ip. So overall an average team will lose 2.4 points in era/whip by picking up a craptastic reliever and the difference between a top-flight guy and a craptastic guy is about 4.8 points in the standings for a 12 team league. To put this in perspective, it takes about 20 saves for the average team to offset that 2.4 point swing in era/whip that those 70ip would cost you. That's the break-even point.


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Re: Season Long Fantasy Strategies

Postby Athrun340 » Tue Jun 12, 2007 3:55 pm

My newly discovered strategy.. I'm actually going to patent this LOL

seriously mine is really simple .. get 3 guys that can produce for you per category

for example

RBI & HR - I have Adrian Gonzalez, Adam Dunn, Arod,
SB - Figgins, Victorino, Willits

then the rest of my guys are supporting cast
Pence - 5 cat player
Youkilis - Runs and AVG
Tejada - some HR .. AVG
Helton - some HR and RBI -- mainly AVG

also draft the best players available per position .. especially the catcher position

I have brian mccann there .. altho hes been a disappointment.. hes still a top tier C.. if he starts to get hot then that would be a plus for HR, RBI, and AVG
-----------
For pitching.. what I do is draft as many closer as i can .. fill those 2 RP and 3 P slots .. Papelbon, Rivera, Putz, Al Reyes, Jason Isringhausen

for starters .. I dont really draft stud pitchers.. sometimes I do spot starting and then settle down as i find the pitchers im comfortable with .. Barry Zito and Tim Hudson are the only guy left on my team that I drafted .. James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, and Tim Lincecum are all FA acquisition.

so basically that would be 5 closers 5 SP

The only flaw that I see on this strategy is the K dept. .. you'll be lucky if you're able to draft RJ late and James Shields
---
So far so good .. Im first in my h2h league
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