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Postby DK » Fri Jan 30, 2004 6:55 pm

I've said since the day Lee became a Cubbie: He will be a gold mine next year. I'm looking at a .1-.15 jump in BA, 40 HR, 15-20 SB.

One thing that hasn't been mentioned: Roger Maris (a dependable but not spectacular hitter) hit 61 HR in 1961. The main reason? He was hitting in front of Mickey Mantle, one of the greatest outfielders of all time. If Dusty is smart enough, he'll bat Lee in front of Sammy, and who knows? The mashable pitches Lee will see could even bring it higher than 40.

Just my .02.
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Postby HOOTIE » Fri Jan 30, 2004 7:51 pm

DK wrote:One thing that hasn't been mentioned: Roger Maris (a dependable but not spectacular hitter) hit 61 HR in 1961. The main reason? He was hitting in front of Mickey Mantle, one of the greatest outfielders of all time.


I think the main reason was 61 was the expansion year, and hrs were up over 11% in the AL.
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Postby DK » Sat Jan 31, 2004 1:47 pm

Maris also only hit 39 HR the previous year. 10% of 39 is 3.9, which would equate to 43 HR. How do you account for the other 18?
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Feb 01, 2004 4:21 am

DK wrote:Maris also only hit 39 HR the previous year. 10% of 39 is 3.9, which would equate to 43 HR. How do you account for the other 18?



Roids. Roger had to be juicing. ;-)

11% was league average. The better hitters likely fared better then the worst hitters, to arrive at 11%. Norm Cash had his career year, with Maris, and Mantle hit his career high in hrs 54. It's why the hr record was broken in 61 and 98. From what i have seen, lineup protection seems to be a small factor. Maris was coming off a good year, (60) 39 hrs, and at age 26, in a expansion year (61), he peaked. Maris only hit 31 the next year with Mantle behind him.
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