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Derrek Lee

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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Jan 30, 2004 7:38 am

tool069c wrote:
Amazing how people think a change of the park can increase his total hr's by 25%...he better borrow a bat from sosa if he wants 40...IMO...


http://fantasy.sportingnews.com/basebal ... 40123.html

People think it because it's a fact. The average HR/game is about 1.0 Check out the link. I see ten parks that boost homers by about 20% or more. I see another 6 parks that reduce homers by 20% or more.


The last two years Lee has hit 18 and 20 homers on the road. He moves from his home park with -32% to Wrigley with a +6% impact on homers. So, his 9-11 homers at home would be expected to jump to about 13-15.

With the unbalanced schedule, Lee played about half his road games in East Division parks, which include Atlanta (-2%),
Philly (-6%), Shea (-15%), and Montreal (+23%), for an average of 0%. Now he plays half his road games in Houston (+23%), Milwaukee (+23%), Cincy (+53%), St. Louis (-21%), and Pittsburgh (-23%), for an average increase of about 10%. On balance, Lee will play about 20% more of his games in road parks that boost homers by 10%, which should boost his usual 18-20 road homers by 19-21.

So, the best guess might be 32-36, or 10-20% increase in homers. Of course, that's not even adding in any continued improvement in Lee's development. The last three years his homers have gone from 21 to 27 to 31. Since he's 28 you shouldn't count on a huge jump, but it wouldn't be unusual at all for him to tack another 3-6 on next year if he was a late peaker.

So, as I said before, 40 is certainly within Lee's abilities for next year, given where he's playing now.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Jan 30, 2004 7:59 am

HOOTIE wrote:
JoeSoCal wrote:how would you guys compare derrek lee and richie sexson?

who would you take and why (ignore salaries)?



Sexson has hit 45 hrs twice. Lee's best is 31. While he will hit more in Wrigley, i think 40 is a bit high. I think 35-37 is more reasonable. Sexson has the raw power to reach 50.


In my last draft (12 teams) Sexson was taken with the second pick fourth round and I got Lee with the third pick sixth round - which is about exactly where both should have gone - I may have gotten a little value with Lee.
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Postby trevisc » Fri Jan 30, 2004 9:42 am

Mookie4ever wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:
JoeSoCal wrote:how would you guys compare derrek lee and richie sexson?

who would you take and why (ignore salaries)?



Sexson has hit 45 hrs twice. Lee's best is 31. While he will hit more in Wrigley, i think 40 is a bit high. I think 35-37 is more reasonable. Sexson has the raw power to reach 50.


In my last draft (12 teams) Sexson was taken with the second pick fourth round and I got Lee with the third pick sixth round - which is about exactly where both should have gone - I may have gotten a little value with Lee.


good point Mookie. Sexson is getting snatched up by the 3rd round in most drafts. Lee might be there until the 5th this year.
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Postby j7 » Fri Jan 30, 2004 12:17 pm

after Corey Patterson, who else do the cubs have for steals? i'm thinking Goodwin on the bench, Derek Lee, and thats it... is Dusty really that stingy with running? .. i was hoping Lee could possibly have a shot at 25
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Fri Jan 30, 2004 1:13 pm

The Cubs attempted 104 steals last year. Marlins attempted 224 steals last year.

Lee's steals by month:
April - 10
May -2
June - 2
July -2
August - 2
September -3

After April when everyone caught on that Lee was a threat to steal he was successful 11 out of 19 tries. He will be lucky to steal 15.
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Postby CrimeDog » Fri Jan 30, 2004 1:26 pm

He very well could go for 40+ homers but I wouldn't look for more than 10 steals max.
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Postby JoeSoCal » Fri Jan 30, 2004 1:32 pm

i understand Sexson is being drafter earlier...but, is that appropriate?


if so, why?
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Postby Steve Kemp » Fri Jan 30, 2004 1:43 pm

I love Lee this year, but be careful. Wrigley is NOT the launching pad everyone thinks. I go to 20 games a year and half the time a strong wind is blowing in from the lake. Obviously, it's better than ProPLayer, but as an FYI unless you're Sammy it's more difficult than perceived
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Postby stumpak » Fri Jan 30, 2004 2:32 pm

I don't get the Lee hype. Yes, he may hit 5 more HRs because due to park effect, his average may uptick a bit and he may get a few more runs and RBIs, but this is at best a wash for the SBs he will lose. Take any team in standings, add 5 HRs, a few Rs and RBIs and a point team BA and takeaway 10-15 SBs--you will probably lose points, not gain them, due to the relative scarcity of SBs vice the other categories. He is potentially a less vlauable player than last year.
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Postby HOOTIE » Fri Jan 30, 2004 4:56 pm

STICKY AZ scored 3 more runs then Milwaukee with Sexson. The offenses probably will be similiar, but the BOB is a extreme hitters park, so i think Sexson probably benefits going to AZ.
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