Amazing how people think a change of the park can increase his total hr's by 25%...he better borrow a bat from sosa if he wants 40...IMO...
http://fantasy.sportingnews.com/basebal ... 40123.html
People think it because it's a fact. The average HR/game is about 1.0 Check out the link. I see ten parks that boost homers by about 20% or more. I see another 6 parks that reduce homers by 20% or more.
The last two years Lee has hit 18 and 20 homers on the road. He moves from his home park with -32% to Wrigley with a +6% impact on homers. So, his 9-11 homers at home would be expected to jump to about 13-15.
With the unbalanced schedule, Lee played about half his road games in East Division parks, which include Atlanta (-2%),
Philly (-6%), Shea (-15%), and Montreal (+23%), for an average of 0%. Now he plays half his road games in Houston (+23%), Milwaukee (+23%), Cincy (+53%), St. Louis (-21%), and Pittsburgh (-23%), for an average increase of about 10%. On balance, Lee will play about 20% more of his games in road parks that boost homers by 10%, which should boost his usual 18-20 road homers by 19-21.
So, the best guess might be 32-36, or 10-20% increase in homers. Of course, that's not even adding in any continued improvement in Lee's development. The last three years his homers have gone from 21 to 27 to 31. Since he's 28 you shouldn't count on a huge jump, but it wouldn't be unusual at all for him to tack another 3-6 on next year if he was a late peaker.
So, as I said before, 40 is certainly within Lee's abilities for next year, given where he's playing now.