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Jeremy Guthrie: Is he this good?

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Jeremy Guthrie: Is he this good?

Postby rotoquest » Mon Jun 11, 2007 7:13 am

Does anybody know anything about Guthrie? Does he have quality stuff, and is he this good? He has 7 out of 8 quality starts in 66.7 IP, 3 wins 1 loss, 42 K's, 2.700 ERA, 0.930 Whip. I know he pitches for baltimore, but talk about somebody flying under the radar.
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Re: Jeremy Guthrie: Is he this good?

Postby jswede » Mon Jun 11, 2007 10:42 am

hhmmmm... .229 BABIP (near leading the league) with a 1.46 G/F. Not quite as good as his numbers, but he could regress and still be viable. Orioles aren't quite as bad as advertised in March, either.
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Re: Jeremy Guthrie: Is he this good?

Postby jswede » Mon Jun 11, 2007 10:49 am

I'm digging the lack of walks for my 6x6 with BB as a stat - thanks for the tip. May have to make room...
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Re: Jeremy Guthrie: Is he this good?

Postby talan37 » Mon Jun 11, 2007 11:40 am

I see .246babip... which is very low but not outrageous... if you normalize that to league average his era would be around 3.3.

The key difference between now and previous years is his walks...last year in the majors his walk rate was 16%, now its 4% and his k-rate has stayed about the same at 16%. His gb/fb is 50/50 and he has a 4% hr rate on fly balls, which is also excellent. Depending on what your looking at, his xEra,fip he is still putting up peripherals for a low 3s era so even if his babip regresses he will stay in the low 3s.

Unfortunately with the O's he will continue to struggle to get wins. What you really want to watch for is his walks(imo), if his bb% starts moving up that will be a good sign that hes back to previous form and starting to lose it.

I picked him up two weeks ago as having the best supported era of the ww crowd and have gotten 3 quality starts so far with basically no regression in his peripherals.

Do I think he will sport a sub 3 era all year, pretty damn unlikely, but i could see a mid 3's especially if he keeps up his kk/bb and his hr rate. I think he was a good pickup 2 weeks ago, and I still think he is.

In his last 4 starts: 30ip, 19hits, 8er, 4walks, 16ks, 1win.

Hes pitched against the:#4, #5, #16, #10, #29, #25,#22 offenses, so he has pitched slightly weighted towards the bottom rung, but he has pitched and done well against good teams as well.
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Re: Jeremy Guthrie: Is he this good?

Postby jswede » Mon Jun 11, 2007 3:14 pm

talan37 wrote:I see .246babip...
His gb/fb is 50/50


I'm using the ESPN page for my stats - I see 95/65 gb/fb, and a .229 BIPA (balls in play batting average - same as BABIP, right?)
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Re: Jeremy Guthrie: Is he this good?

Postby talan37 » Mon Jun 11, 2007 4:10 pm

Sorry, I misinterpreted the gb/fb, I meant about 50% gb, 34%fb, 18% ld.

Ok, the discrepency is this... bipa is not the same as babip, although I am not sure why they are different, and I can't seem to find the exact BIPA formula.

Bipa is-batting average against - homeruns and strikeouts
babip = (H-HR)/(AB-HR-SO)

I realize they appear to be the same... but everywhere I see babip i see .246 or .245(rounding differences), and I only see BIPA on espns page.

Investigating some more... if anyone can explain the differences please feel free.

firstinning.com .246
fangraphs.com .244
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Re: Jeremy Guthrie: Is he this good?

Postby theclefe » Mon Jun 11, 2007 6:05 pm

talan37 wrote:What you really want to watch for is his walks(imo), if his bb% starts moving up that will be a good sign that hes back to previous form and starting to lose it.


Return to previous form? He had about 30 ip in his major league career, all in relief before this year. He pitched very well last season in AAA Buffalo as a full-time starter, and that has carried over. That is a much better indication of future performance than a handful of relief appearances.
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Re: Jeremy Guthrie: Is he this good?

Postby byfrcp » Mon Jun 11, 2007 6:34 pm

talan37 wrote:Sorry, I misinterpreted the gb/fb, I meant about 50% gb, 34%fb, 18% ld.

Ok, the discrepency is this... bipa is not the same as babip, although I am not sure why they are different, and I can't seem to find the exact BIPA formula.

Bipa is-batting average against - homeruns and strikeouts
babip = (H-HR)/(AB-HR-SO)

I realize they appear to be the same... but everywhere I see babip i see .246 or .245(rounding differences), and I only see BIPA on espns page.

Investigating some more... if anyone can explain the differences please feel free.

firstinning.com .246
fangraphs.com .244



BABIP is (H-HR-K) / (AB-HR-K), so basically just what it says, when a ball goes onto the field whether a hit or an out it counts in BAIP.
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Re: Jeremy Guthrie: Is he this good?

Postby djxskillz » Tue Jun 12, 2007 4:53 am

he has amazing ratios and pretty good K's. Too bad he doesn't get the run support. However he is definitely worth a roster spot.
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Re: Jeremy Guthrie: Is he this good?

Postby talan37 » Tue Jun 12, 2007 9:09 am

Babip on balls in play is definitely not (H-Hr-K)/(Ab-Hr-K) that would be roughly (51-4-42)/(255-4-42)

Quick and dirty babip~
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BABIP

There are no K's on the top of the equation.

What I am concerned about is the difference between BABIP and BIPA.
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