He's the Michael Turner of the Padres. He gets no attention because Peavy is the head of the rotation, but he would easily be a #1 pitcher for almost all clubs. He's already proven he is real from last years numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if he keeps his ERA close to 3.0 with close to 200 K's. His only problem is giving up too many walks and he's easy to run on...but it doesn't really matter since he gives up so few hits.
Last year his ERA was a fluke based on the .237 BABIP. This year the ERA is a fluke based on the 0.36 HR/9. He's still a pretty good pitcher but that park saves him a lot and he walks too many guys, if i owned him I'd be selling him all kinds of high as his ERA is going to jump at least a full run in the second half in my opinion.
Ender wrote:Last year his ERA was a fluke based on the .237 BABIP. This year the ERA is a fluke based on the 0.36 HR/9. He's still a pretty good pitcher but that park saves him a lot and he walks too many guys, if i owned him I'd be selling him all kinds of high as his ERA is going to jump at least a full run in the second half in my opinion.
My thoughts exactly. Just take a look at his DIPS. His defense and park help him out a lot. His BABIP isn't as extreme as it was last season but compared some of his numbers to Peavy.
Peavy's DIPS% is 1.09 and his BABIP is .278. Young's DIPS% is 1.45 and his BABIP is .250.
Also, here are his splits from last year: Home ERA/WHIP 4.60/1.27 Away ERA/WHIP 2.41/1.01
His splits this year are much better at home, but last year's numbers show that his stats aren't an illusion created by the park. This year he's given up 1,5,2,1, and 0 ER on the road.
Regarding selling high - he's under the radar, and no one's buying.
Actually, because he pitches in SD is why you keep him not sell him! The NL can't hit this guy, over his last two years (260 IP) he has a .207 BAA. He may not be quite as good as his numbers suggest because of park and league BUT he plays in that park and he plays in that league so ride it out!
The arguments about his defense and park helping him seem pointless...despite being true. Unless he gets traded, these aren't variables...but rather constants.
Also, I completely agree his era is abnormally low considering his peripheral stats, but even if he pitches the rest of the year with an era 1 point higher...he'd still end up with an era in the high 2's. (2.35 + 1 = 3.35 => nice era).
I don't think he'll end up with 200 K's, but if he continues to go deep into games...185 wouldn't be out of the question with 210+ IP.
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by Athrun340 » Sun Jun 10, 2007 10:07 pm 
