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Upton and Youkilis: Here to stay

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Re: Upton and Youkilis: Here to stay

Postby mtxdevil » Sun Jun 10, 2007 12:22 am

So what are some useful sites that list these sort of stats?
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Re: Upton and Youkilis: Here to stay

Postby GiantsFan14 » Sun Jun 10, 2007 12:41 am

dclark0699 wrote:How long has BABIP been around? Prior to this year I knew nothing of it...and now everyone speaks of it like it is the all-decisive wonder stat.

I'd have to say that people who rake line drives are going to have a BABIP of like .380-.400. Instead of labeling this as preposterous and due for a collapse, maybe look at the quality of contact the player is making on their balls in play instead of whether or not they are hits.


it is an awesome stat that does a good job of projecting, players never have a BABIP over .400 over the course of the season, the only one i can find is ichiro in '04 with a BABIP of .401 who hit a ton of line drives and a ton of ground balls which he could use his speed on

also, if you would have read my earlier post you'd see i made reference to the quality of balls he puts in play, he hits an average number of line drives and an above average number of ground balls which means he could very well have a BABIP above average, but .450 is just ridiculous and it is absolutely impossible that it remains that high throughout the course of the season, my guess is that it ends up closer to .350
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Re: Upton and Youkilis: Here to stay

Postby Noggy » Sun Jun 10, 2007 5:57 am

dclark0699 wrote:I'd have to say that people who rake line drives are going to have a BABIP of like .380-.400.


In the past five years, a player has had a BABIP of .380 or higher six times.

Top Ten in BABIP since 2002:

1) .406 Jose Hernandez (2002)
2) .401 Ichiro Suzuki (2004)
3) .394 Derek Jeter (2006)
4) .382 Miguel Cabrera (2006)
4) .382 Jim Edmonds (2002)
6) .380 Derek Jeter (2003)
7) .377 Ivan Rodriguez (2004)
8) .375 Bobby Abreu (2006)
9) .374 Manny Ramirez (2002)
9) .374 Melvin Mora (2004)

All these guys, except Ichiro, had line drive percentages well over 20% and were among the major league leaders for that season. Upton has a 18.5% live drive percentage, which is about the 100th best in baseball.

While he is an exception, Ichiro had 57 infield hits that year (a career high, his next highest is 41). Upton's on pace for about half as many as that (he has 11), so it's not really Upton's speed that's helping him. He's just hitting them where they ain't at an absurdly high rate for no real reason I can think of other than pure luck.
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Re: Upton and Youkilis: Here to stay

Postby Cobaltred » Sun Jun 10, 2007 12:11 pm

Good info in this thread. I must admit, I didn't realize how absurdly high Upton's BABIP was. I am definitely going to look into moving him now. Picked up Braun and Bill Hall off wavers last week, should give me enough depth at 3B and MI to move Upton.
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Re: Upton and Youkilis: Here to stay

Postby Fugetaboutit » Mon Jun 11, 2007 9:17 am

I traded Upton and Burnett for Johan Santana. 2 Sell highs IMO. Burnett's pitch counts were starting to worry me.
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Re: Upton and Youkilis: Here to stay

Postby acsguitar » Mon Jun 11, 2007 9:56 am

Whats the word on Youk though.

I thought the sox were big into sabrmatics or whatever. Could they use Youk as trade bait? I know he's not going anywhere below the ML level
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Re: Upton and Youkilis: Here to stay

Postby kaiser » Mon Jun 11, 2007 10:23 am

I'd like to look at this BAIBP a little more. Can anyone suggest a good site that lists that stat?
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Re: Upton and Youkilis: Here to stay

Postby GiantsFan14 » Mon Jun 11, 2007 11:14 am

kaiser wrote:I'd like to look at this BAIBP a little more. Can anyone suggest a good site that lists that stat?


http://www.fangraphs.com

awesome site, tons of info, all sortable
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Re: Upton and Youkilis: Here to stay

Postby acsguitar » Mon Jun 11, 2007 11:52 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:
kaiser wrote:I'd like to look at this BAIBP a little more. Can anyone suggest a good site that lists that stat?


http://www.fangraphs.com

awesome site, tons of info, all sortable

Yep that site rules ;D
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Re: Upton and Youkilis: Here to stay

Postby Frances The Mute » Mon Jun 11, 2007 3:08 pm

Duh, Bossman Jr can aim his hits. ;D
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