Cobaltred wrote:Some guys strike out a lot but can still hit for average: see Abreu, Bobby (not in 2007); Ortiz, David; and Soriano, Alfonso.
Those three guys strike out 22.3%, 21.5% and 21.4% of the time respectively over their careers. Upton has been striking out 34.2% of the time so far this year. Ortiz and Abreu average about 120 strikeouts per year, Soriano about 140..... Upton's on pace to strike out about 220 times this year if he gets 650 at bats.
This has already been mentioned, but his BABIP which was .451 heading into today (the next highest in .411 by Derrek Lee). Just make comparison, Jeter in 2006, Ichiro in 2004 and Jose Hernandez in 2002 are the only 3 guys have had a BABIP over .385 going back to 2002. Ichiro struck out 8.9% of the time and he hit .372 that year. Jeter 16.4% of the time and hit .344. Hernandez's .406 BABIP is the highest of the bunch and he only hit .288 that season because he struck out as much as Upton.
So at the end of the day, I'm thinking that a .285 batting average is the absolute best case scenario for Upton, but I'm expecting something in the low-mid .270s. Still great production out of 2B considering he has some pop and will steal bases but his trade value will never be higher.