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Enough of Richie Sexson?

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Re: Enough of Richie Sexson?

Postby Dan Lambskin » Sat Jun 09, 2007 10:21 am

i just couldnt take the AVG hit anymore and didnt have the bench space for him...cut him loose for Kotchman. maybe i can pick him up after the ASB
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Re: Enough of Richie Sexson?

Postby Will Clark » Sat Jun 09, 2007 4:00 pm

It's true, this guy is a second half monster. If you stuck with him this long, I'd wait out the year and get his best months too. If you drop him, you could see him racking up numbers on your rival team.
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Re: Enough of Richie Sexson?

Postby biju » Sat Jun 09, 2007 4:14 pm

He seemed to be hitting well in preseason so I didn't draft another 1B thinking he could continue the momentum. I was wrong. So now I've got Dan Johnson and the newly 1B Travis Hafner to ride out until Sexson starts hitting again. And once he does he's back in my lineup.
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Re: Enough of Richie Sexson?

Postby Shock Wave » Sat Jun 09, 2007 4:20 pm

Hes on my bench right now but I would stick with him if you have room on your roster to hold him.
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Re: Enough of Richie Sexson?

Postby The Jury » Sat Jun 09, 2007 6:06 pm

If you actually look at his pre and post-All Star Break numbers, this "second half monster" stuff you guys are muttering about is kind of overrated. He's been generally consistent with his power production, and the most glaring difference in BA was last year. Other than that, he's been fairly even throughout his seasons. His second half production is being overblown, IMO.
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Re: Enough of Richie Sexson?

Postby DevilDriver » Sat Jun 09, 2007 7:48 pm

The Jury wrote:If you actually look at his pre and post-All Star Break numbers, this "second half monster" stuff you guys are muttering about is kind of overrated. He's been generally consistent with his power production, and the most glaring difference in BA was last year. Other than that, he's been fairly even throughout his seasons. His second half production is being overblown, IMO.


Sexson's career splits:

Pre All-Star (662 g) .248/.329/.478

Post All-Star (541 g) .290/.372/.573


The stats don't lie, that's a big difference.
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Re: Enough of Richie Sexson?

Postby The Jury » Sun Jun 10, 2007 11:40 am

DevilDriver wrote:
The Jury wrote:If you actually look at his pre and post-All Star Break numbers, this "second half monster" stuff you guys are muttering about is kind of overrated. He's been generally consistent with his power production, and the most glaring difference in BA was last year. Other than that, he's been fairly even throughout his seasons. His second half production is being overblown, IMO.


Sexson's career splits:

Pre All-Star (662 g) .248/.329/.478

Post All-Star (541 g) .290/.372/.573


The stats don't lie, that's a big difference.


I'm not ignorant, and I read all the posts before I reply. I noticed that someone posted those numbers already. Maybe I didn't make my point clear in my previous post.

What I meant was that instead of looking at those numbers you posted, dig deeper and look at the actual numbers (provided by Yahoo or wherever) for each season, each half season, and each month. When I looked at these numbers instead of just those career numbers you posted, I arrived at my position now of the belief that those career Pre/Post ASB numbers you posted are overblown.
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Re: Enough of Richie Sexson?

Postby The Jury » Sun Jun 10, 2007 11:45 am

2005

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pre All Star 82 298 53 77 19 0 18 63 46 97 1 0 .258 .362 .503 .865
Post All-Star 74 260 46 70 17 1 21 58 43 70 0 1 .269 .377 .585 .961

2003
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pre All Star 93 353 60 93 11 1 25 70 60 89 2 3 .263 .376 .513 .889
Post All-Star 69 253 37 72 17 1 20 54 38 62 0 0 .285 .383 .597 .980

2002
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pre All Star 88 323 56 91 19 2 19 62 31 76 0 0 .282 .353 .529 .882
Post All-Star 69 247 30 68 18 0 10 40 39 60 0 0 .275 .377 .470 .847

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/593 ... pe=Batting

I think those career Pre/Post ASB numbers are misleading because it doesn't really matter what a player did 10 years ago if hasn't been a consistent trend within the last handful of years.
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Re: Enough of Richie Sexson?

Postby Inukchuk » Sun Jun 10, 2007 12:06 pm

The Jury wrote:2005

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pre All Star 82 298 53 77 19 0 18 63 46 97 1 0 .258 .362 .503 .865
Post All-Star 74 260 46 70 17 1 21 58 43 70 0 1 .269 .377 .585 .961

2003
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pre All Star 93 353 60 93 11 1 25 70 60 89 2 3 .263 .376 .513 .889
Post All-Star 69 253 37 72 17 1 20 54 38 62 0 0 .285 .383 .597 .980

2002
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pre All Star 88 323 56 91 19 2 19 62 31 76 0 0 .282 .353 .529 .882
Post All-Star 69 247 30 68 18 0 10 40 39 60 0 0 .275 .377 .470 .847

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/593 ... pe=Batting

I think those career Pre/Post ASB numbers are misleading because it doesn't really matter what a player did 10 years ago if hasn't been a consistent trend within the last handful of years.


OK, I understand you don't buy into his second half improvement as much as the rest of us. What I see is a career average of a 50 point improvement from 1st half to second half. I also see that his average splits were ridiculous last year. That information itself is enough to give a possibility to a 280-300 second half average. You keep hammering home the "last couple of years." Well, his average over the last couple of years has been pretty consistently in the 260-270 range. According to your logic, shouldn't that trend continue? If so, those numbers, along with his penchant for hitting better in the second half (which you cannot deny), should lead to a pretty reasonable expectation of him hitting close to 300 in the second half. Even if he doesn't, do you honestly think he'll finish the year with a 200 average, or even 220 for that matter?
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Re: Enough of Richie Sexson?

Postby The Jury » Sun Jun 10, 2007 12:28 pm

Inukchuk wrote:
The Jury wrote:2005

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pre All Star 82 298 53 77 19 0 18 63 46 97 1 0 .258 .362 .503 .865
Post All-Star 74 260 46 70 17 1 21 58 43 70 0 1 .269 .377 .585 .961

2003
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pre All Star 93 353 60 93 11 1 25 70 60 89 2 3 .263 .376 .513 .889
Post All-Star 69 253 37 72 17 1 20 54 38 62 0 0 .285 .383 .597 .980

2002
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pre All Star 88 323 56 91 19 2 19 62 31 76 0 0 .282 .353 .529 .882
Post All-Star 69 247 30 68 18 0 10 40 39 60 0 0 .275 .377 .470 .847

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/593 ... pe=Batting

I think those career Pre/Post ASB numbers are misleading because it doesn't really matter what a player did 10 years ago if hasn't been a consistent trend within the last handful of years.


OK, I understand you don't buy into his second half improvement as much as the rest of us. What I see is a career average of a 50 point improvement from 1st half to second half. I also see that his average splits were ridiculous last year. That information itself is enough to give a possibility to a 280-300 second half average. You keep hammering home the "last couple of years." Well, his average over the last couple of years has been pretty consistently in the 260-270 range. According to your logic, shouldn't that trend continue? If so, those numbers, along with his penchant for hitting better in the second half (which you cannot deny), should lead to a pretty reasonable expectation of him hitting close to 300 in the second half. Even if he doesn't, do you honestly think he'll finish the year with a 200 average, or even 220 for that matter?


I do agree that last year's splits were ridiculous - his second half way awesome - and that he's about a .260 hitter and should reach around that mark by year's end.

I guess you are really focused on the BA while I'm looking more at what the OP and some of the previous posters are pondering and that is Richie Sexson's stats as a whole, not use the batting average. I'm guessing that people here aren't complaining just about Sexson's BA but about his overall production, which is a little down from his usual standards. If you look at this R, HR, 2B, and RBI production pre and post ASB over the past few years individually as I've provided, his production has been pretty consistent. As an interesting example that I noticed, in one year he put up 20+ RBI every other month (May, July, Sept). So my point is that he's pretty consistent, aside from maybe BA.

Even projecting his current season through his 54 games (easy because its simply a factor of 3), he's on pace for 75 R, 36 2B, 27 HR, and 111 RBI. This line isn't far off from what you'd expect from Sexson, though his HRs are down a bit. So I guess even with his .198 BA, his production is still pretty consistent pre/post ASB, which was my point, and given that projected line, I think unhappy Sexson are a little too down on him.

So to recap my position for you: I'm not sure about BA, but to me the rest of his production is pretty consistent throughout the year.
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