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prior... a lock for a first rounder?

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Postby trevisc » Wed Jan 28, 2004 11:39 am

he's no sleeper. He's always good for 40-50 sbs
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Postby Erboes » Wed Jan 28, 2004 11:39 am

Arlo wrote:
Erboes wrote:I don't know, Arlo. Think about it, what would a guy who'll give you about 40% of homers that you'd need to win that category be worth? Or 40% of RBI's? It's just like getting a guy who'll hit you .500 in 600 AB's. They're very, very, very, very undervalued in my estimation.

Agreed, speedsters are extremely undervalued in drafts (which is why we chose Alex Sanchez as the latest sleeper). A two-to-one ratio is a bit much, however.

You've been quoting dollar values; what values would you assign to Crawford, Pierre, and A-Rod, respectively?


It would be great if some of the math wizs here could prove this either way.

I started looking into this when Crawford came up so high in my projections that will debut here soon on Rotoguys.com. A-Rod, whom I have at .299-52-129-18 is valued at $39. Crawford at .290-9-59-59 is at $37. This is the standard valuation formula used by most projection services I should add. Pierre, who I have at .286-1-34-48 is at $28. Crawford is valued higher than Pierre because he hits more homers than Pierre.

Looking at other projection services they do not rank steals as highly, and since it is a formula we got from one of these services I'm beginning to think most articifially deflate the value of steals in their projections. I think this is because most people do not think steals are worth as much as the formula would dictate, so they don't want to cause problems with the subscribers.

This is an interesting discussion. I look forward to any facts that can be shed upon this topic.
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Postby Arlo » Wed Jan 28, 2004 12:14 pm

Erboes wrote:It would be great if some of the math wizs here could prove this either way.

I started looking into this when Crawford came up so high in my projections that will debut here soon on Rotoguys.com. A-Rod, whom I have at .299-52-129-18 is valued at $39. Crawford at .290-9-59-59 is at $37. This is the standard valuation formula used by most projection services I should add. Pierre, who I have at .286-1-34-48 is at $28. Crawford is valued higher than Pierre because he hits more homers than Pierre.

Looking at other projection services they do not rank steals as highly, and since it is a formula we got from one of these services I'm beginning to think most articifially deflate the value of steals in their projections. I think this is because most people do not think steals are worth as much as the formula would dictate, so they don't want to cause problems with the subscribers.

This is an interesting discussion. I look forward to any facts that can be shed upon this topic.

Agreed, very interesting discussion. ;-D

Let's take Crawford's .290-9-59-59 projection and do some conversions. Converting 41 steals into 43 HR and 156 RBI by the one steal equals two home runs ratio turns Crawford's projected stats into .290-52-217-18. His average is .009 lower than A-Rod's, but he has a whopping 88 RBI edge, which would make him the better player by a significant margin. Clearly, either the dollar values, which favor A-Rod, or the conversion ratio are off...
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Postby Erboes » Wed Jan 28, 2004 12:26 pm

I should also add that he has a 43 run lead in runs too, A-Rod does.

I'm confident that the formulas for these values are the same ones used by most reputable forecasting sites. HQ uses the same method. Pierre, for example had a value of $34 last season according to HQ, which adds up.

This is very interesting stuff if you ask me.
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