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prior... a lock for a first rounder?

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Postby HOOTIE » Wed Jan 28, 2004 7:28 am

Erboes wrote:Some points here: Pedro no longer has the K's and the win totals that he used to. He may get more wins from time to time, but the days of high K totals I believe are over. With his sterling ERA and WHIP last season, he was still only worth $30.


How do you know he no longer has the win totals? He won 20 in 02. Last year's 14 was a fluke. He earned $31, only 2 short of Prior. If Pedro had 3 more wins, they look pretty close. Pedro still gets the k's. A DOM rate of 10.0. In 02 it was 10.8. Prior was at 10.4 last year. Even he dropped from 11.7. Prior will k more, but it's no lock Prior wins more, and the era and whip are probably a push.
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Postby HOOTIE » Wed Jan 28, 2004 7:30 am

Erboes wrote: In an average league a SB is worth 2 HR's or 8 RBI's. For example, Crawford's 55 SB's would have equated to 60 HR's and 200 RBI's, so it's like he hit 65 HR's and knocked in 254 RBI's.


A sb is worth 2 hrs. So how did you get those numbers?
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Postby Erboes » Wed Jan 28, 2004 7:42 am

HOOTIE wrote:
Erboes wrote: In an average league a SB is worth 2 HR's or 8 RBI's. For example, Crawford's 55 SB's would have equated to 60 HR's and 200 RBI's, so it's like he hit 65 HR's and knocked in 254 RBI's.


A sb is worth 2 hrs. So how did you get those numbers?


I went through a couple mixed leagues I played in last season and found an average of something like 110 SB's per team and an average of 900 RBI's per team, which makes it an 8 to 1 ratio, correct?
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Postby HOOTIE » Wed Jan 28, 2004 7:49 am

Erboes wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:
Erboes wrote: In an average league a SB is worth 2 HR's or 8 RBI's. For example, Crawford's 55 SB's would have equated to 60 HR's and 200 RBI's, so it's like he hit 65 HR's and knocked in 254 RBI's.


A sb is worth 2 hrs. So how did you get those numbers?


I went through a couple mixed leagues I played in last season and found an average of something like 110 SB's per team and an average of 900 RBI's per team, which makes it an 8 to 1 ratio, correct?


Yes on that. But you state Crawfords 55 sb equal 60 hrs?
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Postby Erboes » Wed Jan 28, 2004 8:07 am

HOOTIE wrote:
Erboes wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:
Erboes wrote: In an average league a SB is worth 2 HR's or 8 RBI's. For example, Crawford's 55 SB's would have equated to 60 HR's and 200 RBI's, so it's like he hit 65 HR's and knocked in 254 RBI's.


A sb is worth 2 hrs. So how did you get those numbers?


I went through a couple mixed leagues I played in last season and found an average of something like 110 SB's per team and an average of 900 RBI's per team, which makes it an 8 to 1 ratio, correct?


Yes on that. But you state Crawfords 55 sb equal 60 hrs?


Oh, I see. What I did is take 30 of his SB's and turned them into 60 HR's (30x2=60) and 25 of his HR's and turned them into RBI's (25x8=200) to give him the totals of 65 HR's and 254 RBI's. It's pretty amazing if you think about it.
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Postby prodpaul » Wed Jan 28, 2004 8:36 am

I would take him no question in the first round.
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Postby Arlo » Wed Jan 28, 2004 10:52 am

Erboes wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:
Erboes wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:
Erboes wrote: In an average league a SB is worth 2 HR's or 8 RBI's. For example, Crawford's 55 SB's would have equated to 60 HR's and 200 RBI's, so it's like he hit 65 HR's and knocked in 254 RBI's.


A sb is worth 2 hrs. So how did you get those numbers?


I went through a couple mixed leagues I played in last season and found an average of something like 110 SB's per team and an average of 900 RBI's per team, which makes it an 8 to 1 ratio, correct?


Yes on that. But you state Crawfords 55 sb equal 60 hrs?


Oh, I see. What I did is take 30 of his SB's and turned them into 60 HR's (30x2=60) and 25 of his HR's and turned them into RBI's (25x8=200) to give him the totals of 65 HR's and 254 RBI's. It's pretty amazing if you think about it.

I agree that steals aren't undervalued, and that Crawford's 55 SB are extremely valuable, but I think those calculations are a bit off. Otherwise, you could convert Juan Pierre's steals to 60 HR, 120 RBI, 20 SB, making him worth more than A-Rod, which Pierre isn't.

If the average team in your league has around 110 SB and 220 HR, that means that the average hitter will give you about 10 SB and 20 HR (assuming, for a moment, that you use CI and MI slots, just for the sake of making the numbers easier). So yes, 10 SB are equal to 20 HR, but that doesn't mean that a steal is worth two home runs.

SB+10=HR

is probably a better estimate when evaluating players' contributions.

In any case, Crawford is still an extremely valuable player. Even if a steal isn't worth two round-trippers, the impact of his 55 SB is still greater than that of any player's home runs.


And yes, Prior is a first-rounder. :-)
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Postby Erboes » Wed Jan 28, 2004 11:06 am

Arlo wrote:
Erboes wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:
Erboes wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:
Erboes wrote: In an average league a SB is worth 2 HR's or 8 RBI's. For example, Crawford's 55 SB's would have equated to 60 HR's and 200 RBI's, so it's like he hit 65 HR's and knocked in 254 RBI's.


A sb is worth 2 hrs. So how did you get those numbers?


I went through a couple mixed leagues I played in last season and found an average of something like 110 SB's per team and an average of 900 RBI's per team, which makes it an 8 to 1 ratio, correct?


Yes on that. But you state Crawfords 55 sb equal 60 hrs?


Oh, I see. What I did is take 30 of his SB's and turned them into 60 HR's (30x2=60) and 25 of his HR's and turned them into RBI's (25x8=200) to give him the totals of 65 HR's and 254 RBI's. It's pretty amazing if you think about it.

I agree that steals aren't undervalued, and that Crawford's 55 SB are extremely valuable, but I think those calculations are a bit off. Otherwise, you could convert Juan Pierre's steals to 60 HR, 120 RBI, 20 SB, making him worth more than A-Rod, which Pierre isn't.

If the average team in your league has around 110 SB and 220 HR, that means that the average hitter will give you about 10 SB and 20 HR (assuming, for a moment, that you use CI and MI slots, just for the sake of making the numbers easier). So yes, 10 SB are equal to 20 HR, but that doesn't mean that a steal is worth two home runs.

SB+10=HR

is probably a better estimate when evaluating players' contributions.

In any case, Crawford is still an extremely valuable player. Even if a steal isn't worth two round-trippers, the impact of his 55 SB is still greater than that of any player's home runs.


And yes, Prior is a first-rounder. :-)


I don't know, Arlo. Think about it, what would a guy who'll give you about 40% of homers that you'd need to win that category be worth? Or 40% of RBI's? It's just like getting a guy who'll hit you .500 in 600 AB's. They're very, very, very, very undervalued in my estimation.
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Postby Arlo » Wed Jan 28, 2004 11:21 am

Erboes wrote:I don't know, Arlo. Think about it, what would a guy who'll give you about 40% of homers that you'd need to win that category be worth? Or 40% of RBI's? It's just like getting a guy who'll hit you .500 in 600 AB's. They're very, very, very, very undervalued in my estimation.

Agreed, speedsters are extremely undervalued in drafts (which is why we chose Alex Sanchez as the latest sleeper). A two-to-one ratio is a bit much, however.

You've been quoting dollar values; what values would you assign to Crawford, Pierre, and A-Rod, respectively?
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Jan 28, 2004 11:30 am

Arlo wrote:Agreed, speedsters are extremely undervalued in drafts (which is why we chose Alex Sanchez as the latest sleeper). A two-to-one ratio is a bit much, however.


CMON! Sanchez was mine - let him sleep.

Nothing to look at here folks - move along.
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