Loaiza

[Madison]

OK, instead of a Schmidt comparison, how about a Jamie Moyer comparison.

From 86-95 (ages 23-32)
ERA (I know, not the best measure, but still...)

86 - 5.05
87 - 5.10
88 - 3.48
89 - 4.86
90 - 4.66
91 - 5.74
92 - DNP
93 - 3.43
94 - 4.77
95 - 5.21

Never more than 12 wins.

Since then, he's had one season with an ERA over 4, and never had less than 13 wins.

Could Loaiza be the new Moyer?

Cool. Something tangible to discuss.

Ok, 2 problems with comparing Loaiza to Moyer.

#1--Moyer had a sub 3.50 era twice in that stretch.

3.48 in 202 innings in '88
3.43 in 152 innings in '93

He showed that he could do it if given the chance. 3 of those years he didn't even register 100 innings, so not enough innings to get an accurate era. So in 10 years, Moyer had a sub 3.50 era twice, 3 years with less than 100 innings, missed one year completely, and 4 bad years. Not quite in the same boat as Loaiza who had never posted a sub 4 era in his entire career until last year.

The other main difference is that Moyer is a finesse pitcher. Slow and bite the corners. Loaiza is more of a "power" pitcher. Big difference in the two styles.

Nice to actually see someone come up with a different angle on the situation though.

[GSes]

Only time will tell.

I think there is NO WAY he will match last year.

Decent numbers are possible

I just see him as this year's Derek Lowe. I don't know what to say he might put together a fine season or NOT.

Only time will tell.

There is always a little voice of me that says he is going to be great. The same little voice that told me I had found 2003's biggest sleeper last April.

Then a bigger voice says....LOL.....Esteban Loaiza, ya right.

No way you should spend an early or even middle round pick on him though, let someone else risk it.

[colour wolf]

Cool. Something tangible to discuss.

Nice to actually see someone come up with a different angle on the situation though.

Aw shucks.

I've given this a little more thought. Now I agree that someone will likely take Loaiza in the first few rounds based on last years numbers. There's no way I want to go there. But, is he worth a risk in the middle rounds. The thing I'm most interested in is his new pitch. Did he just add another established pitch to his repetoire, or did he invent a pitch a la Mike Scott? Scott went from 137K to over 300K the next, and Loaiza basically doubled his K rate.

Thanks for the feedback. I am entering my first mixed league pool this year, after quite a few years of NL-only leagues. So any info about AL guys is great!

[the_tenman]

If he survives past the 10th round(or thereabouts), then he becomes a sleeper canidate. So, why not take a chance on him? Before that you are gambling some and that might not be a good plan with four star types still available or perhaps solid starters at shallow positions.

[Madison]

Cool. Something tangible to discuss.

Nice to actually see someone come up with a different angle on the situation though.

Aw shucks.

I've given this a little more thought. Now I agree that someone will likely take Loaiza in the first few rounds based on last years numbers. There's no way I want to go there. But, is he worth a risk in the middle rounds. The thing I'm most interested in is his new pitch. Did he just add another established pitch to his repetoire, or did he invent a pitch a la Mike Scott? Scott went from 137K to over 300K the next, and Loaiza basically doubled his K rate.

Thanks for the feedback. I am entering my first mixed league pool this year, after quite a few years of NL-only leagues. So any info about AL guys is great!

Lol. Most people don't come up with anything new to discuss. Just the same old thing. New pitch, new league, magic, sold his soul to the devil, etc. This actually made me go look up some stats and think some. It's always appreciated.

Anyway, to answer your question the new pitch is a cut fastball. Not really a big deal, or something that would warrant him having a similar season next year. We'll see.

[jbird669]

I had Loaiza last yr, got him for a $1. He basically has a great April and first week or two of May then sucks until Mid-Sept. Last year he did better than that. There were moments when I thought of dropping him, thinking he'd revert to past performances. While I don't think that he will go back to pre-2003 levels, I think he won't be as dominant last yr. I am considering keeping him at the $1 price, since BASEBALL WEEKLY (our official price guide) will probably have him around $15 or so.

[swingaway]

If he survives past the 10th round(or thereabouts), then he becomes a sleeper canidate. So, why not take a chance on him? Before that you are gambling some and that might not be a good plan with four star types still available or perhaps solid starters at shallow positions.

thats the same plan im goign to take 2

[colour wolf]

I am considering keeping him at the $1 price.

Just considering? Man, I think he warrants a $1 risk.

[jbird669]

I can keep 5 players, coulour wolf, and I have Joe Borowksi at $4, Rich Harden at $1, and Jay Gibbons for $8, among others. I am not sure I will get a $20+ investment on him like I did last yr.

[Transmogrifier]

I'm in Madison's camp when it comes to him. He's definitely worth a 10+ rounder and worth keeping for a buck. If he proves us wrong, that'll be the best buck you ever spent.