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Loiza might surprise you

Postby Guest » Wed Jan 28, 2004 6:58 pm

I've had Loiza, off and on, for the last three years. He's always been able to put together a hot streak, but used to crumble after one or two bad starts. It would then take another three or four before he came back. Part of this seemed to be hitters sitting on his other pitches if one wasn't working. Last year the extra pitch gave him more options, and he seemed much more mature. He always had an extra pitch to go after them with, and was more agressive. If you can get him at a discount, I'd say go for it.
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Postby Guest » Wed Jan 28, 2004 8:39 pm

why cant people get better once and for all? i mean look at schmidt he was pretty much a nobody some years ago and now he is one of the best pitchers in major league baseball, so dont start talking about fluke's until this next season is over and loaiza sucked it up
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Postby the_tenman » Wed Jan 28, 2004 8:55 pm

Doubt a "guest" should have a lot of basis for saying anything. Give us a name to put with your opinion.
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Postby trevisc » Thu Jan 29, 2004 11:57 am

the_tenman wrote:Doubt a "guest" should have a lot of basis for saying anything. Give us a name to put with your opinion.


good point. Please register

;-D
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Postby Madison » Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:54 pm

Anonymous wrote:why cant people get better once and for all? i mean look at schmidt he was pretty much a nobody some years ago and now he is one of the best pitchers in major league baseball, so dont start talking about fluke's until this next season is over and loaiza sucked it up


Talking about flukes, breakouts, and consistant performers is what this is all about. If you feel like Loaiza is going to continue to produce, then draft him. I've provided the reasons showing why he will not perform well next year along with a pretty good projection for him. 4+ era and 12 wins would actually be his best season ever if you don't include last year. Everyone is going to have different opinions on things. If we all agreed on everyone, fantasy baseball would be very boring. ;-)
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Jan 29, 2004 2:22 pm

Comparing Loaiza to Jason Schmidt - thats pretty funny.
Schmidt has been on astute fantasy owners radar for about 3 yrs now. Last yrs performance was predicted by a lot of people, including myself.

Here's the way I view the Loaiza situation - experienced fantasy baseball owners can recognize fluke seasons pretty easily. I build a do not draft list along with a sleeper list every yr. Im not 100% accurate, but I didnt draft Derek Lowe either. There will always be a couple players on my do not draft list that have great years, and Im fine with that. For the person that spent a high pick on those players, more power to ya. I just couldnt see the value in it.
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Postby colour wolf » Thu Jan 29, 2004 10:17 pm

OK, instead of a Schmidt comparison, how about a Jamie Moyer comparison.

From 86-95 (ages 23-32)
ERA (I know, not the best measure, but still...)

86 - 5.05
87 - 5.10
88 - 3.48
89 - 4.86
90 - 4.66
91 - 5.74
92 - DNP
93 - 3.43
94 - 4.77
95 - 5.21

Never more than 12 wins.

Since then, he's had one season with an ERA over 4, and never had less than 13 wins.

Could Loaiza be the new Moyer?
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Postby trevisc » Thu Jan 29, 2004 10:41 pm

colour wolf wrote:OK, instead of a Schmidt comparison, how about a Jamie Moyer comparison.

From 86-95 (ages 23-32)
ERA (I know, not the best measure, but still...)

86 - 5.05
87 - 5.10
88 - 3.48
89 - 4.86
90 - 4.66
91 - 5.74
92 - DNP
93 - 3.43
94 - 4.77
95 - 5.21

Never more than 12 wins.

Since then, he's had one season with an ERA over 4, and never had less than 13 wins.

Could Loaiza be the new Moyer?


man..you build a strong case...

:-?
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Jan 30, 2004 1:08 am

Moyer is a great example. He was on my do not draft list. I looked at his career numbers and said no way he does it 2 years in a row. Someone else paid full price for the numbers he had, and Im fine with that. Great pick. But Im still gonna play the odds.
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Postby issyg67 » Fri Jan 30, 2004 2:07 am

Of course the odds say Loaiza won't repeat last season, I don't think anyone expects that. But I wouldn't be surprised to see him win 15 games, have an ERA around 3.85 and good totals.

The same people saying he's going to tank are the same peopke who last season said trade him before he reverted to "old Loaiza" -- something that never happened.

If someone wants to rank Loaiza as one of the top 5 AL pitchers, great, take him that early. Me, I think he's a decent sleeper candidate because plenty of people are thinkng on-year wonder.

With numbers like last year, I can take that risk in the middle of the draft.
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