Fantasy Baseball Cafe Forums

by **Guest** » Tue Jan 27, 2004 10:40 pm

why dose everybody think loaiza will be a bum this year? i mean just cuz he had a good year last year and crappy ones before that dosnt mean it was a fluke, he could actually be getting better.

by **trevisc** » Tue Jan 27, 2004 11:14 pm

I think he will do ok. Probably a 3.75 era and 14-15 wins.

not that terrible

by **kentx12** » Tue Jan 27, 2004 11:16 pm

IMO he will be the most dropped player in fantasy this year.

by **swingaway** » Tue Jan 27, 2004 11:40 pm

he is theengima pick of this year he either is gong to be very good are revert to stinking form. Thats why i have plans not to draft him on none of my teams unless its round 14 and beyond.

by **LBJackal** » Tue Jan 27, 2004 11:43 pm

I'm not gonna open this can of worms again..............look up Loaiza on the search function and take your pick of threads............i think this one should be locked before it gets outta hand.

by **Guest** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 1:18 am

what?

by **gypsyspot** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 1:32 am

I think that Loaiza is going to come out with an autobiography titled "The Derek Lowe story"

by **Madison** » Wed Jan 28, 2004 3:22 am

Ok, here we go:

Here's some stats:

2001: 190 innings, 5.02 era.
2002: 151 innings, 5.71 era.
2003: We know what he did, we just don't know how. Adding 1 pitch doesn't do that. Dozens of pitchers add a new pitch, we don't see dozens of guys drop their era by a run and a half.

Loaiza has never posted an era under 4.13. That's the best he's ever done and it was way back in '97. It's a fluke, and there's no way that he repeats it. I know a lot of people are high on him, and want to keep him, but the best thing you can do is let him ruin some other owners fantasy team next year.

4+ era and 12 wins is what I've predicted for months now, and I stand by it.

Here's some more, this was another post in that same thread:

Madison wrote:Interesting........I've seen a few people mention how consistant he was for the whole year.

Amazins04 wrote:Furthermore, his K/9 rate jumped in the SECOND half, and that's definitely a good sign.

It is?

Pre All Star: 2.21 era
Post All Star: 3.84 era

guest wrote:One pitch can't do that for a pitcher?

How many pitchers learn a new pitch each year? 50? How many pull a Loaiza? Maybe 1. I believe too much is being made of this 1 new pitch.

guest wrote:I mean the guy was pretty dominant from the beginning all the way through to the end of the year.

See the above era splits. He just continued his hot start a little longer this year.

Career era by month:

April: 2.85
May: 5.47
June: 5.31
July: 4.73
Aug: 4.29
Sept: 4.71
Oct: 2.37 ( 3 starts)

Those numbers were even worse before last year.

I'm sure you are getting the idea. ;-)

Bottom line, in his 8 previous years, his best era was 4.13 and his highest win total was 11. He's had plenty of opportunity too. 1480 career innings, so it's not like he just now got a starting role.

I'm avoiding him, and suggest that everyone else let someone else waste the high pick on him. ;-)