Impossible to predict due to not knowing how many home runs/steals/ saves /etc, there will be next year.
Good idea and I'm sure if you use past stats you can get an idea, but it would be impossible to nail due to so many variables.
Good example is steals. Pretty rare commodity for quite a few years, and then all of a sudden last year there were plenty availiable on the wire. Tough to predict exactly, but you can probably get a ballpark figure. Good luck.
i dont think i am being clear enough, because your above answer seems to be off. we make projections and such all the time. anyway, let me try again.
I would like to devise a method that would allow me to
compare each category on equal footing so that we can
get a true value for each player. I am not sure
exactly where position scarcity falls into the
picture, but suffice it to say...i think you would get
a raw number for two players and then bump up and down
according to position scarcity. Remember, i am not
even discussing contracts or salary issues here.
Here is what I started doing last night. I took the
season finishes for each team (12 teams) and summed
them up. So, I totaled runs, HRs, rbis and stolen
bases. I think we should leave average alone for
After I got the sum total, i divided by 12 to get the
team average and to form the baseline. Then, i took
the team average and divided by the number of starters
to get the average player baseline.
For example, in my league, the avg player numbers came
Would it be sound to argue that in my league, 1 SB =
2.17 HRs (18.5/8.5) or that 1HR = 4 Runs (73.9/18.5)?
In my league (12 teams, two divisions), only the Top 4
teams go to the playoffs. Maybe, I shouldnt take the
league average, but instead sum the totals from the
top 6 teams by record and come up with the same
Perhaps, I should sum the totals of the six best
performances by CATEGORY and come up with the ratios.
Perhaps, none of these ideas are fundamentaly sound?