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H2H Strategy and Player Evaluation

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H2H Strategy and Player Evaluation

Postby JoeSoCal » Tue Jan 27, 2004 3:22 pm

I play in a standard 5x5 H2H deep keep league without salaries.


I know that in many of the roto circles, folks talk about aiming for 3rd in every category and so forth.

One question that puzzles me and that I have been working on trying to solve is trying to create a baseline (for lack of a better word) which would allow me to break each category into units.

For example, we know that 12 inches = 1 foot and so forth. What I would like to do is get an equal unit breakdown for each of the five categories so that I would be able to ascertain how much a SB or any other category is worth in my league.

For example, if each stolen base were worth 2.5 homeruns, then I know that a guy who puts up 20 SBs and 0 HRs is equal to the guy who puts up 50 HRs and 0 SBs (all else being equal).


Am I making any sense?

Is this possible to do?

Thanks
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Postby KULCAT » Tue Jan 27, 2004 6:29 pm

:-?
Id take a lot of calculating
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Postby Madison » Wed Jan 28, 2004 12:25 am

Impossible to predict due to not knowing how many home runs/steals/ saves /etc, there will be next year.

Good idea and I'm sure if you use past stats you can get an idea, but it would be impossible to nail due to so many variables.

Good example is steals. Pretty rare commodity for quite a few years, and then all of a sudden last year there were plenty availiable on the wire. Tough to predict exactly, but you can probably get a ballpark figure. Good luck. ;-D
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Re: H2H Strategy and Player Evaluation

Postby Guest » Wed Jan 28, 2004 1:23 am

JoeSoCal wrote:I play in a standard 5x5 H2H deep keep league without salaries.


I know that in many of the roto circles, folks talk about aiming for 3rd in every category and so forth.

One question that puzzles me and that I have been working on trying to solve is trying to create a baseline (for lack of a better word) which would allow me to break each category into units.

For example, we know that 12 inches = 1 foot and so forth. What I would like to do is get an equal unit breakdown for each of the five categories so that I would be able to ascertain how much a SB or any other category is worth in my league.

That's what I did to prepare for my draft. I'm in a 5X5 NL only league. I used as many realistic projections I could find and averaged them. Then I used a 100 point spread for each category to give each player a point value. I totalled these and came up with an overall value for each player. This is what I will use on draft day to make my selections.

For example, if each stolen base were worth 2.5 homeruns, then I know that a guy who puts up 20 SBs and 0 HRs is equal to the guy who puts up 50 HRs and 0 SBs (all else being equal).


Am I making any sense?

Is this possible to do?

Thanks
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Postby JoeSoCal » Wed Jan 28, 2004 1:39 am

Madison wrote:Impossible to predict due to not knowing how many home runs/steals/ saves /etc, there will be next year.

Good idea and I'm sure if you use past stats you can get an idea, but it would be impossible to nail due to so many variables.

Good example is steals. Pretty rare commodity for quite a few years, and then all of a sudden last year there were plenty availiable on the wire. Tough to predict exactly, but you can probably get a ballpark figure. Good luck. ;-D


i dont think i am being clear enough, because your above answer seems to be off. we make projections and such all the time. anyway, let me try again.



I would like to devise a method that would allow me to
compare each category on equal footing so that we can
get a true value for each player. I am not sure
exactly where position scarcity falls into the
picture, but suffice it to say...i think you would get
a raw number for two players and then bump up and down
according to position scarcity. Remember, i am not
even discussing contracts or salary issues here.

Here is what I started doing last night. I took the
season finishes for each team (12 teams) and summed
them up. So, I totaled runs, HRs, rbis and stolen
bases. I think we should leave average alone for
right now.

After I got the sum total, i divided by 12 to get the
team average and to form the baseline. Then, i took
the team average and divided by the number of starters
to get the average player baseline.

For example, in my league, the avg player numbers came
out to:


73.9 Runs
18.5 HRs
71.4 RBIs
8.50 SBs

Would it be sound to argue that in my league, 1 SB =
2.17 HRs (18.5/8.5) or that 1HR = 4 Runs (73.9/18.5)?


In my league (12 teams, two divisions), only the Top 4
teams go to the playoffs. Maybe, I shouldnt take the
league average, but instead sum the totals from the
top 6 teams by record and come up with the same
numbers?

Perhaps, I should sum the totals of the six best
performances by CATEGORY and come up with the ratios.

Perhaps, none of these ideas are fundamentaly sound?
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Postby Madison » Wed Jan 28, 2004 3:34 am

I understand what you mean. No problems there. The problem is a couple of things. First:

JoSoCal wrote:we make projections


Yes, we all project what the players will do. I thought you wanted to get as close to the true number as possible though, and there's no way to predict that. You can get a ballpark, but that's about it.

Secondly, every league is different as to what it takes to win a catagory or hit the mid mark. Ask everyone here how many steals that all the teams in their league registered last year and you will be very surprised at the totals. Or use home runs, rbi, runs, saves, ect. It all varies by league. Some are very high, others are very low, even with the same number of teams in the same type of league.

It would be great if before the season started you knew that you needed X number of runs, X number of home runs, X number of rbi, etc. Unfortunately, it's not something that you know for sure. You should be able to get a ballpark, and I say give it a shot and see how close you get though. ;-D
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Postby HOOTIE » Wed Jan 28, 2004 5:52 am

I guess you could use your league's numbers from last year if the # of teams is the same? I prefer just breaking down whats really out there in real life. I did a hr to sb comparision in the Cafe. Last year the hr to sb ratio was 1.97 to 1. Basically means last year a hr was = to the value of 2 sb. You can do the same by counting the total number of runs, rbis, k's, saves, wins, etc.
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