The New Garrett Atkins Thread - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

The New Garrett Atkins Thread

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby KCollins1304 » Tue May 29, 2007 11:38 pm

Payne Dailey wrote:
jake_harv88 wrote:you know something is wrong when you are hopeful after a 1-3, 2 runs, 1 rbi day... :-t


Somebody kick your dog today or were you expecting a 3 homer game?


must be his dog got kicked, cuz there is no way someone could hit 3 homeruns in just one game.
Image
KCollins1304
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 5089
Joined: 29 Dec 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Charlotte, NC

Postby Howie » Tue May 29, 2007 11:41 pm

Payne Dailey wrote:
jake_harv88 wrote:you know something is wrong when you are hopeful after a 1-3, 2 runs, 1 rbi day... :-t


Somebody kick your dog today or were you expecting a 3 homer game?


There is NO WAY that Atkins could ever hit 3 homers in a game. Nick Markakis on the other hand...

:-)
Howie
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 3450
(Past Year: 6)
Joined: 29 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: So Cal

Postby avsfan4ever33 » Tue May 29, 2007 11:42 pm

A blurb from the Rockies notes column from tonight:

Rockies third baseman Garrett Atkins was supposed to be an All-Star candidate, but his .220 average going into Tuesday pretty much scuttled that talk.

Now, manager Clint Hurdle admits he's considering giving Atkins a few days off, the way he took shortstop Troy Tulowitzki out of the lineup for three days when he struggled in April. The job would still be Atkins', but Hurdle said the change of pace might help.

"It's something I've given a lot of thought to, but I'm just going to let it play itself out," Hurdle said.


He hit the ball fairly well tonight, so he'll probably start tomorrow.
avsfan4ever33
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicEagle EyeSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 4003
Joined: 18 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Colorado

Postby tecmobowl12 » Tue May 29, 2007 11:42 pm

jake_harv88 wrote:you know something is wrong when you are hopeful after a 1-3, 2 runs, 1 rbi day... :-t


no dude you know something is wrong when you look in your sideview mirror to see your boat trailer wheel is gone and a fire hydrant going all geyser everywhere. getting pumped because of atkins' line tonight just means 1st place is only a matter of time
Last edited by tecmobowl12 on Tue May 29, 2007 11:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
tecmobowl12
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Eagle Eye
Posts: 1323
Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby facts » Tue May 29, 2007 11:43 pm

I never see his BABIP mentioned in these threads. Last year it was a blistering .340, which I would imagine to be unsustainable. So he had to be expected to drop in AVG somewhat. The good news is he appears to be going through the opposite this year, with a .248 BABIP. So he isn't this bad.
facts
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 133
Joined: 20 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby rookies and cream » Tue May 29, 2007 11:46 pm

I've mentioned his BABIP in the "bad" Garrett Atkins thread. Reminds me alot of Kinsler this year, who's also hitting the ball hard but right at people. Both have BABIPs b/w .240 and .250.
rookies and cream
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 6490
(Past Year: 45)
Joined: 4 Apr 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Long Island, NY

Postby rookies and cream » Tue May 29, 2007 11:51 pm

For those who haven't seen this, here's a good analysis of GA from the Saberoticians blog posted a couple of weeks ago.

Garrett Atkins is one of my favorite 3B trade targets right now. First let's go over the power. In the preseason it would have been easy to predict a small power increase from Atkins, and 35 HRs were a distinct possibility. So far, he has only hit 2 HRs. They have had True Distances of 389 and 396, according to HitTracker. Not great, but decent. While it is possible he won't hit a lot of HRs, I think it is likely that he will bust out sometime soon and become the player I thought he would be. His Flyball Percentage is up to 48% (from 41% in 2006), which adds a little further support to the prediction that he will soon begin to be a serious power threat.

So what about the .240 Batting Average? I see this increasing as well. His Contact Rate is at 83.5%, which is down from his 87.3% of last year, but still respectable. I think it is fairly likely once Atkins shakes this funk his Contact Rate will improve a bit. His BB rate is only down a little from last year, and 11% is still quite good. With selectivity like that you'd expect Atkins to be converting his balls in play into hits at a better rate than his .275 BABIP indicates. His BABIP last year was .340 with a 11.6% BB rate. LD Percentage also has an effect on this, and his LD rate is also only down a little from 2006. It is at 20.8% now, down from 22% in 2006.

Overall, it seems like Atkins's contact hitting numbers are down across the board, but only by a little bit. Even if they remain as they are, they are still better than a .240 BA. I expect them to improve a little though, and his BA should rise significantly. Preseason I though a BA above .300 was very likely, and I still feel Atkins can achieve this mark.

The Colorado lineup is decent, so Atkins should be able to score a good number of RBIs and Runs. Tulowitski's BA should improve and he walks a lot. Taveras is a good contact hitter and he is surprisingly walking a lot too. Holliday has established himself as a good hitter. Helton's days as a serious power threat are gone, but he is a fantastic contact hitter who walks a ton. Plenty of RBI opportunities for Atkins once he shapes up.

If he could squeeze himself into the 3rd or 4th spot he'd be in a perfect spot for a lot of RBIs and Runs with Tulowitski and Taveras ahead and Holliday and Helton behind. If he stays batting 5th, the guys behind him are only OK, but his high BB rate should still be able to keep his Run total up.

So there you have an analysis of Garrett Atkins. Overall, I'd say if you can get him cheap, definitely do it. I still think he will be considered one of the Top 3 or 4 Fantasy Baseball 3B by year's end. He has all the tools to do it, now he just has to.
rookies and cream
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 6490
(Past Year: 45)
Joined: 4 Apr 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Long Island, NY

Postby OneLoveBoomer » Wed May 30, 2007 12:10 am

I'm starting him tomorrow. Mostly because my sub, C. Blake, is going against Matsuzaka for the first time. Don't make me regret it Mr. Atkins!
OneLoveBoomer
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 6184
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 11 Sep 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The offseason.

Postby acsguitar » Wed May 30, 2007 12:40 am

Atkins did well tonight...Hit the ball hard a few times. Got robbed once
I'm too lazy to make a sig at the moment
acsguitar
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Graphics Expert
Posts: 26722
Joined: 7 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Back in General Talk WOOO!!!

Postby dipset » Wed May 30, 2007 12:55 am

wow looking at his game log from last year it seems as if he got 2, 3, or even 4 hits like every game.... ;-D

Than i come to realize....


that was last year :-/
Image
dipset
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1119
Joined: 12 Dec 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: kab21 and 12 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2015 MLB season starts in 18:44 hours
(and 95 days)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact