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Prospect Euphoria

Prospect Euphoria

Postby ROC AllStars » Fri May 25, 2007 10:10 am

It seems that many in fantasy baseball suffer from "prospect euphoria". How important is it to grab the next best thing? My leagues are non-keeper, so its hard to justify grabbing Gallardo or Bailey before they have a solid spot. But then again, both Liriano and Weaver were grabbed weeks before they hit it big last year. Any thoughts? Thanks in advance.
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Postby MTUCache » Fri May 25, 2007 10:25 am

Generally, it is just a euphoria... and probably 90% of the time prospects are not going to pan out.

But, in just about every league, you're going to find guys who are desperate enough, and who have enough under-producing players on their bench to make moves like this.

If you're comfortable with where you're at in your league right now, or you can't figure out who'd you'd drop for a prospect, you probably don't need to be taking that gamble in the first place. But, if you're floundering, and you've got some struggling guys on your roster (especially at that position), then it may be worth a shot in the dark. Just keep in mind that 90% of the time you're not going to end up any better off than you are now, and you could get burned badly if the player you cut to pick up this young guy turns things around.
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Postby ROC AllStars » Fri May 25, 2007 10:35 am

Thanks for the reply. In reference to Gallardo and Bailey, I would be moving from very predictable (Maddux) to very unpredictable (prospects).
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Postby AdvRider » Thu May 31, 2007 3:48 pm

MTUCache wrote:But, if you're floundering, and you've got some struggling guys on your roster (especially at that position), then it may be worth a shot in the dark.


I'll disagree slightly. Nailing a prospect who turns into a stud is one of the keys to a top 3 finish, IMHO. In other words, it's more than worth a shot -- it's often required to take home a trophy, unless you have a killer draft.

True, most prospects will be either just acceptable or subpar, or start fast and fade faster. Then comes along a Pujols or a Cabrera (thinking back a couple of years) or a Liriano and -- sweet! ;-D

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Postby Lofunzo » Sun Jun 03, 2007 7:56 am

AdvRider wrote:
MTUCache wrote:But, if you're floundering, and you've got some struggling guys on your roster (especially at that position), then it may be worth a shot in the dark.


I'll disagree slightly. Nailing a prospect who turns into a stud is one of the keys to a top 3 finish, IMHO. In other words, it's more than worth a shot -- it's often required to take home a trophy, unless you have a killer draft.

True, most prospects will be either just acceptable or subpar, or start fast and fade faster. Then comes along a Pujols or a Cabrera (thinking back a couple of years) or a Liriano and -- sweet! ;-D

Do the research, play the hunch, and have fun!


But even Cabrera didn't do that great when he first came up. He had decent numbers but nothing that would make or break your team that season. In a non-keeper, I usually ignore those players unless I have room to spare. In keeper leagues, it gets hairy. I worry that people overvalue youth in keeper leagues. People reach for guys like Pence or Bailey just because they're in a keeper league. Make sure that you consider everything. If you keep 3 players, make sure that those kids will be among your 3. In many cases, they won't.
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Re: Prospect Euphoria

Postby 05worldserieschamps » Thu Jun 07, 2007 10:13 pm

I agree that sometimes, its gets out of hand and fantasy owners drop better talent just because of the hype, but prospects like Homer Bailey and Tim Lincecum can really help out a team at such a cheap price.
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Re: Prospect Euphoria

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Thu Jun 07, 2007 10:33 pm

Depends how deep your league is and who you have to drop for them. If you can drop a scrub on the end of your bench that will never play, it's worth to pick up a good prospect, in case they go nuts, like Pence is. That being said, you shouldn't drop a solid player who you are rotating in your pitching slots when he starts for a guy like Bailey who may or may not pan out. It is a talent to figure out which prospects will be good immediatly and which won't, and I think the more preparation you do preseason as well as the more you play fantasy baseball, your ability in that department will improve.
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Re: Prospect Euphoria

Postby masarume » Tue Jul 03, 2007 5:06 pm

You really have to pick your spots. If you have an injured guy or somebody that is just struggling or not working out, it might be better to take a gamble on a rookie if your WW is dry.

In our rookie draft this year, I took Braun and Adam Miller. I used my 1st overall waiver priorety on Pence. This year has treated me nicely. You won't always get lucky but these small breaks go a long ways to helping you secure a championship team.
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Re: Prospect Euphoria

Postby Oatsdad » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:12 am

I love the advice I get here about up and coming players - it's helped me find some "bargains" and has made my teams better.

But people DO go more than a little nuts about the "next big thing". When some rookie comes into the league, they act like A-Rod just appeared on the WW. There's this panic to get the player and the impression that he'll clearly be the greatest thing ever. It's a little warped...
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Re: Prospect Euphoria

Postby MaudDib » Mon Aug 13, 2007 4:38 pm

A lot of times I have to decide between a over the hill type player like Maddux or a young unproven guy like Gallardo or Bailey. When it comes down to that I usually will go for the young guy. Even if Maddux strings together some really nice starts I doubt I would ever put him in, mainly because I don't trust him to be good game in game out. So if I am going to waste a roster spot I might as well try and win the lottery. I will say that I seem to be pretty good at picking up guys. I had Wright a few years ago, Weaver last year, Duke when he first came up, Braun this year, heck I could probably go on and on. But like the others say you have to pick the right players to drop. I would never give up on a guy like Dye to pick up a prospect because I figure he will turn it around or at the least I could get someone else in a trade.
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