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For those who count holds.

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For those who count holds.

Postby RynMan » Thu May 24, 2007 4:18 am

So what a lot of fantasy owners don't realize is that to get the the 1250 max inning mark (or whatever the league limit is), is not too hard, therefore you want quality innings. You want to get the most out of each one of those innings, especially with counting stats.

If your league counts holds, then chances are the top setup guys like Shields, Broxton, Okajima, Linebrink and Capps are gone.

How about adding a lefty setup?

There are a few advantages here. The largest advantage is that typically a lefty setup guys will pitch 0.1 or 0.2 innings to get out the left handed hitter - and usually this is in a hold situation. Rarely does a lefty setup come in to face a lefty only when the team are a few runs down, or many runs up.

So, 0.1 innings or 3 innings, they are still getting a hold. If they are used to pitch to one batter on 3 days and get you a hold on each, then you have picked up a handy trio of holds in 1 inning. Now if he gets raked it hurts a little, however he typically won't be out there long enough to crash your ERA with a few runs. Lefty setup guys don't stay in there long enough.

Here are a few guys who might be useful pickups for the mentioned reasons....

Matt Thornton
Aaron Fultz
Jack Taschner
Brian Shouse
Will Ohman
Alan Embree
George Sherrill
Dennys Reyes
Scott Downs
Dámaso Marte

Get a couple of these guys and they should get you a few holds, while minimizing the amount of innings it takes to do so.
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Postby pokerplaya » Thu May 24, 2007 4:24 am

Good post.

You could add Pedro Feliciano to that list as well.

He has been great for the Mets.
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Postby dbstrat » Thu May 24, 2007 8:45 am

nice post and something I hadn't really thought of.
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Postby bigwords » Thu May 24, 2007 12:27 pm

Sorry, I disagree.

You talk about middle relievers as if they can potentially wreck your ERA. That might be true for some of the disgusting, unrosterable middle guys, but I think you'll find with more research that the average ERA/WHIP of a reliever bests the average ERA/WHIP of a starter.

Really, it makes no sense to minimize the amount of innings contributed by your relievers, even those middle guys. Instead, you should try to maximize their innings contribution. They'll drive your ERA and WHIP down.

If you pick a middle reliever with a high strikeout rate, you're helping yourself in at least four categories (ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, and holds).

Finally, though it may make some intuitive sense that a one-out hold is easier and thus lefty specialists (aka LOOGYs) will rack up holds, that's not the case either. The best LOOGYs will only give you 15-20 holds whereas the best right-handed middle relievers generally wind up near 30.
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Postby bigwords » Thu May 24, 2007 12:39 pm

Also, this is not true at all either:

"Rarely does a lefty setup come in to face a lefty only when the team are a few runs down, or many runs up."
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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Thu May 24, 2007 12:42 pm

Those roster spots are most often better used for hitters or spot starters.
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Postby bigwords » Thu May 24, 2007 12:50 pm

[quote="Chrisy Moltisanti"]Those roster spots are most often better used for hitters or spot starters.[/quote]

Depends on the league. Depends on the innings minimum and maximum. Depends on the number of roster spots.

In a league that's 6x6, counting holds with an innings maximum, I think that it can be argued that a middle reliever is more valuable than a starter. A low ERA/low WHIP/high KO reliever can help you in four out of six categories. A starter may get you wins, but there are a lot more relievers with sub-4 ERA and plus-8 Ks-per-9 IP than starters with those ratios. The deeper the league, the more the active roster spots, the more valuable a reliever becomes.
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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Thu May 24, 2007 1:00 pm

bigwords wrote:
Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:Those roster spots are most often better used for hitters or spot starters.


Depends on the league. Depends on the innings minimum and maximum. Depends on the number of roster spots.

In a league that's 6x6, counting holds with an innings maximum, I think that it can be argued that a middle reliever is more valuable than a starter. A low ERA/low WHIP/high KO reliever can help you in four out of six categories. A starter may get you wins, but there are a lot more relievers with sub-4 ERA and plus-8 Ks-per-9 IP than starters with those ratios. The deeper the league, the more the active roster spots, the more valuable a reliever becomes.
Even prime Gagne stats aren't as worth as much as prime Santana stats.

What I meant is that the extra roster spots used over the typical about to acquire holds and saves are most often used for hitters and spot starters.
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Postby bigwords » Thu May 24, 2007 1:12 pm

I'll agree that in most cases, it makes no sense to use bench spots on relievers. (There are exceptions.)

However, active spots are a different matter. Many leagues give you certain limits. You can only play 162 games at a given position per season. You can only play 1 3B on a given day. Etc.

So sure, you can have a lot of bench guys serving as injury insurance or spot plays on a lightly scheduled day...or you can use as many active roster spots that you can on relievers. Like I said, it depends on the league format, and perhaps you don't play in a league where what I'm saying makes any sense, but if you can play 9 pitchers on a given day, then it makes sense to have a lot of roster spots for relievers. Because those relievers WILL contribute positively in many ways. Whereas the guy sitting on your bench won't (as much).

That's not to say you can't pickup a spot starter for Monday and drop him for a reliever on Tuesday.
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Postby bigwords » Thu May 24, 2007 1:23 pm

I reread what you wrote and I think I know what you mean.

I still disagree, however. Gagne's stats aren't going to be worth as much as Santana's, but in certain 6x6 holds leagues, Neshek's stats are going to be more valuable than 90% of starters. If you don't believe me, go to baseballmonster.com and check it out yourself.
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