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Postby bob123 » Wed May 23, 2007 8:54 pm

so, i was checking out the hardball times and came across a stat that seems like it would be very useful for fantasy. it's called predicted ops (PrOPS for short) and you can read about it here.

according to this stat, here are the top five "sell high" guys:

derrek lee
jorge posada
magglio ordonez
matt holliday
hanley ramirez

these players have the greatest drops between ops and props (check it out here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/m ... son_filter[0]=2007&league_filter[0]=All&team_filter[0]=All&pos_filter[0]=All&Submit=Submit&orderBy=ops_minus_props&direction=DESC&page=1).

here are the top five "buy low" dudes:

barry bonds
richie sexson
aj pierzynski
brandon inge
gary sheffield

link: http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/m ... son_filter[0]=2007&league_filter[0]=All&team_filter[0]=All&pos_filter[0]=All&Submit=Submit&orderBy=ops_minus_props&direction=ASC&page=1

these aren't the first five players that appear when you sort by ops - props; i took the first five who have a props of .800 or better.

thoughts?
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Postby dbstrat » Wed May 23, 2007 9:41 pm

I agree with the sell high group pretty much except for Lee. I don't know that the rest are my top 4, but I think they are all playing a little over their heads. That's just my opinion.

The buy low group...well I don't think the middle 3 are worth buying at all too much. Pierzynski is on the wire in my 12-team money league.

Sheffield and Bonds I would buy, I suppose...but I don't think they are great values even as buy lows.

Interesting stat, though. Do you know how they come up with it?
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Postby bob123 » Wed May 23, 2007 9:56 pm

i don't have a formula for you, but they take into account the following factors according to the article to which i linked above:

* Line drives per batted ball
* Groundball-to-flyball ratio
* Walk rate
* Hit-by-pitch rate
* Strikeout rate
* Home run rate
* Home park of the player
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