FSRU Rankings - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

FSRU Rankings

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby wrveres » Wed Jan 21, 2004 3:44 am

One last thought on projections, for people who use them or even look at them for that matter. It helps if you have Excell, if not I hope you are good with an abacus. ;-7


Total up a couple of the teams 'runs'. Add up all the players on Baltimore, for example. If it shows more than 900 total runs, you got bad projections. No team should ever total more than a 1000 obvioussly. And I'd gamble you should not "project" any team to score more than 900 runs. Certainly not Baltimore. But go ahead and do it, any team, it doesn't matter. If the total is over 900 . you got bad projections.
wrveres
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe Musketeer
Posts: 31783
(Past Year: 692)
Joined: 2 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Erboes » Wed Jan 21, 2004 9:49 am

If you guys had the Forecaster you'd know what I mean about fluctuating values. I wouldn't recommend it for anything else, but for looking at a player's historical values it comes in handy.

It's funny that you mentioned that 900 run plateau, Wrveres, because I didn't think about it while doing my projections. So I went through and discovered I have only one team that breaks that total, the Yankees. Looking through it I'm very conservative in the run scored department so I don't think I'm going to fiddle with it just to meet your rule of thumb. That team is loaded with run scorers, so I hope you don't consider my projections a failure just because of 13 runs.

I hope you fellas find the projections useful. If anyone takes the time to compare them to others at the end of the season you'll find us to have the best out there. They'll be updated every two weeks until the season starts and every Friday after opening day. It is also loaded with other useful tools, including flash updates sent directly to your mailbox. Did I mention Rotobabes? A monthly pictorial dedicated to the more serious fan.
Erboes
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1433
Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Madison » Wed Jan 21, 2004 2:55 pm

Erboes wrote:In a couple weeks I'll give everyone here a password to get into the projection service I'm starting up for a few days


Erboes, I look forward to seeing and following your projections to see how you do. I find myself falling in the "about what they did last year" situation myself too often for my liking. Unfortunately, most of the magazines and publications agree with me (or do I agree with them? :-? Lol. :-b ) instead of pointing out why that player will do significantly better or worse.

Injuries and players that were significantly over/under don't count. RJ for example of injured. Preston Wilson for example of who was over and Burrell for a player who was under. Those are the easy questions. The tough ones like Todd Helton/Manny Ramierez/Halladay/etc. are the ones that I'm the most interested in.

I do look forward to seeing how you do with your projections and I appreciate the offer to see them. ;-D

This has some interest for me as well:

Erboes wrote:Did I mention Rotobabes?


Hmmm......... :-D
Yes doctor, I am sick.
Sick of those who are spineless.
Sick of those who feel self-entitled.
Sick of those who are hypocrites.
Yes doctor, an army is forming.
Yes doctor, there will be a war.
Yes doctor, there will be blood.....
Madison
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
ExecutiveEditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerPick 3 ChampionMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 53856
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 29 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Taking Souls...

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Jan 21, 2004 3:29 pm

Very interesting thread here fellas. I was particularly interested in the analogy between predicting fantasy players and the stock market. Being a stockbroker with an MBA in economics I will give my 2 cents. First of all, the main argument here can be described as fundamental v. technical projections. When you look at a somethings actual historic stats and use those to extrapolate a projection thats technical. When you look at somethings situation (environment), thats fundamental. The answer to which is the best to use - as many have stated - is actually both. The wisest prognosticators will look at both trend and environment equally to determine future value.
As for the stock market - yes diversifying is wise as it helps eliminate company risk, and this typically has returned 8-12% yearly. Not too shabby. However - for investors that have already solidified a diversified base for their investments - individual stock selection can beat the market regularly if the underlying research and analysis is strong. Saying the WSJ dart throwing test beats the majority of research opinion out there is acurate, but thats more a reflection of the pap being distributed as investment advice as it is of the thrower. There are a number of analysts that consistantly beat the market. My analysts have averaged a return of over 40% annualy since 1996, and trust me, they dont use darts.
Last edited by Cornbread Maxwell on Thu Jan 22, 2004 3:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
Image
Cornbread Maxwell
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertPick 3 ChampionSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 5694
Joined: 7 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Erboes » Wed Jan 21, 2004 4:27 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Very interesting thread here fellas. I was particularly interested in the analogy between predicting fantasy players and the stock market. Being a stockbroker with an MBA in economics I will give my 2 cents. First of all, the main argument here can be described as fundamental v. technological projections. When you look at a somethings actual historic stats and use those to extrapolate a projection thats technological. When you look at somethings situation (environment), thats fundamental. The answer to which is the best to use - as many have stated - is actually both. The wisest prognosticators will look at both trend and environment equally to determine future value.
As for the stock market - yes diversifying is wise as it helps eliminate company risk, and this typically has returned 8-12% yearly. Not too shabby. However - for investors that have already solidified a diversified base for their investments - individual stock selection can beat the market regularly if the underlying research and analysis is strong. Saying the WSJ dart throwing test beats the majority of research opinion out there is acurate, but thats more a reflection of the pap being distributed as investment advice as it is of the thrower. There are a number of analysts that consistantly beat the market. My analysts have averaged a return of over 40% annualy since 1996, and trust me, they dont use darts.


Holy cow, someone agrees with me.

I agree that the method you fellas will let you compete in most seasons, but competing is not my goal -- winning in a dominating fashion is.

And to get to that 40% return, to continue the analogy, isn't as risky as you would think. I've mentioned the dream trifecta that many people here seem to inspire for -- Nomar, Sosa, and Blalock -- with the first three picks in a draft. They are considered the safe route I am sure by this multi-projection method, but I'll tell you I would get, at worse, the same production out of Jeter, Green, and Hinske and I could get them in about the fourth, sixth and twelth rounds. It's called value, and they're all safer picks too. Nomar's in a slide, Sosa's in a major slide, and Blalock is not that good anyway and might slip a bit as well.

Each pick or player bought in an auction has a value to it, and the only goal should be to get the most value out of that slot as possible. The trick is to target those players who'll out perform their norms, figure out where they'll go in your draft (this is what mock drafts and Yahoo public leagues are for), and pick them right before everyone else. A good projection set will tell you who those players are; unfortunately, most do not because they stink. This is the reason why Rotoguys.com will soon be opening for business.

Yeah, Madison -- Rotobabes. Hopefully that part of it will be up when we open our doors and give the Cafe members a free tour. I'm looking forward to the shoots. This is a sales gimmick, I'll admit, but make no mistake, the baseball content will be top shelf.
Erboes
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1433
Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Erboes » Wed Jan 21, 2004 4:29 pm

I forgot to mention, Rotoguys.com will be $4.95 for this season. Cheaper than a magazine I must note.
Erboes
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1433
Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby ramble2 » Wed Jan 21, 2004 6:28 pm

Erboes wrote:I've mentioned the dream trifecta that many people here seem to inspire for -- Nomar, Sosa, and Blalock -- with the first three picks in a draft.


Ugh, that would not be a good way to start a draft. I hope nobody here is seriously considering taking those three with their first three picks. In a 12 team 5x5 I'd put Nomar at mid to late 2nd round, Sosa similar, and Blalock around 5th (about where Chavez was 3 or 4 years ago). Erboes, I hope you plan on giving us something more surprising than this. (I'm not trying to dog you here, as I'm confident you plan on providing info that is far more controversial and against the grain. Take it as friendly criticism that the above claim isn't going to differentiate you in an interesting way.)

I'm eager to see your projections and wish you luck with your website. Any thoughts on using a random algorithm to establish a baseline 'index' which you measure yourself against? You could call it the S&P 250 (Strategy & Projections of 250 players?). Just think if it caught on and beat a bunch of experts. Then you might have people logging on to your site just to check the S&P 250 ...

Erboes wrote:Yeah, Madison -- Rotobabes. Hopefully that part of it will be up when we open our doors and give the Cafe members a free tour. I'm looking forward to the shoots. This is a sales gimmick, I'll admit, but make no mistake, the baseball content will be top shelf.


Rotobabes? Are those babes who play roto? :-D
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
ramble2
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe Ranker
Posts: 2952
(Past Year: 5)
Joined: 27 Feb 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Salt Lake City

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Jan 21, 2004 6:45 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Very interesting thread here fellas. I was particularly interested in the analogy between predicting fantasy players and the stock market. Being a stockbroker with an MBA in economics I will give my 2 cents. First of all, the main argument here can be described as fundamental v. technological projections. When you look at a somethings actual historic stats and use those to extrapolate a projection thats technological. When you look at somethings situation (environment), thats fundamental. The answer to which is the best to use - as many have stated - is actually both. The wisest prognosticators will look at both trend and environment equally to determine future value.
As for the stock market - yes diversifying is wise as it helps eliminate company risk, and this typically has returned 8-12% yearly. Not too shabby. However - for investors that have already solidified a diversified base for their investments - individual stock selection can beat the market regularly if the underlying research and analysis is strong. Saying the WSJ dart throwing test beats the majority of research opinion out there is acurate, but thats more a reflection of the pap being distributed as investment advice as it is of the thrower. There are a number of analysts that consistantly beat the market. My analysts have averaged a return of over 40% annualy since 1996, and trust me, they dont use darts.


I think there are a lot of similarities in stock/fantasy player picks.

Since I can only talk about this in theory (Ph.D. in Economics), it's great to hear some real-world info. :-°

As you say, the best systems tend to combine approaches. I think the statistical/historical approach is technical analysis, isn't it?

If I understand you, you say, picking (stocks or ball players, not your nose) can succeed if:
A. You have already diversified
B. "..the underlying research is good."

I think that summarizes very nicely what both Erboes and I were trying to say in various pieces. And, as you indicate and Erboes reminds us, in roto, as in Wall Street, much of the info is garbage, but there are some who are worthwhile.

But, I would like to see a list of analysts that have beaten the market long-term (15-25 years). My recollection is that such a list is approaching a null set.

Even more problematic for the roto projection systems (especially for hitters) is the information in the Baseball Primer thread I posted.

The correlation between your prediction and what really happened is one measure of how well your system works. A perfect correlation would be 1.0. With random error, you can never achieve a perfect correlation. So the "realistic" goal for correlation is less than 1.0

In the Primer thread they show two things:

A. A really naive formula achieves a correlation of .68
B. Given what we know about random error in baseball statistics, it is likely that the maximum correlation of the best prediction system (for hitters) would be .72

Now, while on Wall Street the difference between a correlation of .72 and .68 might earn you a few million or more, in roto ball it seems a little silly to try to invest a whole lot of time and energy on that (unless, like Erboes, you can provide Rotobabes as well!!)
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby Erboes » Wed Jan 21, 2004 6:46 pm

I don't think they even know what a baseball is.

Good point, Ramble. It's hard to explain fully a philosophy in such a short space. You try to condense it by using examples, but those may not have been the best ones to choose. They're still over valued according to where you have them ranked, but not as badly as my example.
Erboes
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1433
Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Jan 21, 2004 8:05 pm

ramble2 wrote:I'm eager to see your projections and wish you luck with your website. Any thoughts on using a random algorithm to establish a baseline 'index' which you measure yourself against? You could call it the S&P 250 (Strategy & Projections of 250 players?). Just think if it caught on and beat a bunch of experts. Then you might have people logging on to your site just to check the S&P 250 ...


The baseline idea is used in almost all the forecasting/projection tests that I have seen in recent years.

One common "baseline" is to use the old Bill James formula (.5 x last year) + (.33 x 2 years ago) + .17 x 3 years ago).

Another one if just to increase last year's number by 3-5 percent for guys under age 27, level of guys 28-30, down 3-5 percent for guys 31+.

Often you'll see these baselines labeled "Marcel" as in Marcel the monkey.

The results are pretty consistent. These baseline formulas achieve a pretty decent correlation of about .68. Forecasters often beat them, but not by a lot.
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Saturday, Oct. 25
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Kansas City at San Francisco
(8:07 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact