Fantasy Baseball Cafe Forums

by **CadensDad** » Wed May 16, 2007 2:35 pm

He is 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA he has 43 K's and 13 BB WHIP is 0.92

He is pitching 7-8 innings in every game except for 1. His stuff is looking good and he doesn't seem to be struggling that much. I think it's safe to say he is back and can easily win 17 games with 190 K's and a ERA around 2.20

Any more thoughts?

by **KoopaTroopa211** » Wed May 16, 2007 2:37 pm

CadensDad wrote:I think it's safe to say he is back and can easily win 17 games with 190 K's and a ERA around 2.20

He's having a good year so far, but I would go so far as to say NO starter who pitches 200+ this year will have an ERA that good.

I'll peg him at 16 wins, 190-ish K's and an ERA no better than 3.00

by **J35J** » Wed May 16, 2007 2:37 pm

He does have a lot more life on all of his stuff......really quite amazing the difference I've seen in him this year from the last couple years.....not sure what that says, but yes he definately is a different pitcher this year!

With that said, i'd still sell high if you can get a top end SP talent that you can feel safer about.

by **SmartassBoiler** » Wed May 16, 2007 2:39 pm

Easily post a 2.20 ERA? I want the stuff you're smoking.

Seriously though, he's definitely back and pitching great. This is the Hudson I thought we'd see when he first arrived in Atlanta, but his ERA will definitely not sit in the low 2's all year.

by **byfrcp** » Wed May 16, 2007 2:39 pm

I just got him in a trade last week and hope he's back for real. I still don't see 190-ish K's though. He got 12 of his 43 K's came in one game and that was his career high. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't strike out 9 in one game the rest of the season.

by **Yoda** » Wed May 16, 2007 2:43 pm

His numbers are not sustainable. I can see him posting a career best in BABIP and strand rates but right now, they are ridiculous beyond belief. Throw in the fact that his K rate has been pretty much his career average, I'm thinking he is probably a great sell high candidate.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?pl ... &type=full

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?pl ... &type=full

by **pope** » Wed May 16, 2007 2:49 pm

Yoda wrote:His numbers are not sustainable. I can see him posting a career best in BABIP and strand rates but right now, they are ridiculous beyond belief. Throw in the fact that his K rate has been pretty much his career average, I'm thinking he is probably a great sell high candidate.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?pl ... &type=full

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?pl ... &type=full

Agreed. But you forgot his injury history as another factor to sell high. I think he has been hampered by an oblique injury in the past. Those injuries always have a nasty way of popping back up. ;-D