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Postby Nails » Tue May 15, 2007 5:04 pm

Ender wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:
Ender wrote:
mkultra wrote:Yeah, you should probably drop him if you own him. ;-D


Not saying that but people were rallying to his april to say anyone who didn't pick him #1 or #2 was a moron because obviously he had reached a new level this season. He's still the sub 40 HR guy we saw 2 of the past 3 years, he just got a whole lot of pitches right down the middle in April that he hit out of the park. No way to predict that.


I'm a huge ARod fan but he is no longer a sure thing with your top 2 picks, its more a product of that stadium than his ability but I would not be surprised if he missed 40 HR's even with the fast start. I think he probably will just break 40 but it will be close and there is no way he's breaking records like so many people said he would.


Product of that stadium? You're joking right? Yankee Stadium is notoriously hard on right-handed power hitters.

The man won an MVP two years ago with 48 homeruns and 130+ RBIs. To say that this month proves he's a sub-40 homerun hitter who only hits pitches down the middle is asinine.


That was my entire point, the fact he has only managed 40 HR's once in the past 3 years is a product of how hard it is to hit HR's in that stadium not a product of his skill set slipping.

I also never said he only hits pitches down the middle, get some reading comprehension man. I said he got a lot of pitches right down the middle in april and its the simple truth. Go back and watch his HR's, the majority of them were meatballs, he wasn't hitting good pitches out. Thats what most April hot streaks are since pitchers have some pretty spotty control in April.


That's also what good hitters do...they hit mistakes HARD. A-Rod did that. Pitchers always make mistakes, even the great ones. The great hitters take advantage of those mistakes more often than average hitters. All of your comments in this whole subject are ridiculous. It is obvious that you either 1.) dislike A-Rod or 2.) lack baseball knowledge. Either way, you are making one of the greatest players of or time sound ordinary. Whether you like him or not and regardless of his postseason track record, his career stats are great and he will break records.
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Postby Ender » Tue May 15, 2007 5:16 pm

That's also what good hitters do...they hit mistakes HARD. A-Rod did that. Pitchers always make mistakes, even the great ones. The great hitters take advantage of those mistakes more often than average hitters. All of your comments in this whole subject are ridiculous. It is obvious that you either 1.) dislike A-Rod or 2.) lack baseball knowledge. Either way, you are making one of the greatest players of or time sound ordinary. Whether you like him or not and regardless of his postseason track record, his career stats are great and he will break records.


Wow, just wow. I never said anything about ARod sucking. This is why i quit posting a few years back, readers who have absolutely no freaking reading comprehension makes having meaningful coversations almost impossible on this site at times.

How hard is it to understand what I wrote, ARod will regress to his 3 year average, this is not some new level for him. He had a great April but thats all it was, a hot streak. I said that at the end of April and got called a moron for it and now that exactly what I said happened it means I hate ARod or something. For what its worth all power hitters take bad pitches out for HR's, the good power hitters take a lot of good pitches out too, thats what makes them good hitters.
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Postby noseeum » Tue May 15, 2007 8:55 pm

Ender wrote:How hard is it to understand what I wrote, ARod will regress to his 3 year average, this is not some new level for him. He had a great April but thats all it was, a hot streak. I said that at the end of April and got called a moron for it and now that exactly what I said happened it means I hate ARod or something. For what its worth all power hitters take bad pitches out for HR's, the good power hitters take a lot of good pitches out too, thats what makes them good hitters.


Gimme a break dude! Good hitters are WAYYY better than bad hitters at hitting mistake pitches! And they can even hit good pitches too!

;-7

I will debate one point with you, and that it is erroneous to assume Arod will regress to his mean by having a terrible stretch that will put him on his career norms. What you can safely predict is that Arod should perform at his career norms from here on out. BUT, since he's outperformed his career norms up to this point, it's likely he's in for a career year. Someone trading for him should only expect his norms from here on out, but in the end, the totals are likely to exceed his norms because of the lead he's got on those norms.

People tend to mistake regression to the mean "he was hot in April, so he should stink for the same amount of time at some point this season, so it all balances out." But that's not what it means. It just means players will typically perform as they typically do. A hot streak does not predict a cold streak, and a cold streak does not predict a hot streak. Just like dice.

You roll 30 7s in a row, and on the next roll, you still have the same chance of rolling a 7 as before. But if you're keeping track for 100 rolls, you should expect that by the end of 100 rolls, you'll have a lot more 7s than is expected for 100 rolls because of that 30 in a row aberration.
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Postby nebgib5 » Tue May 15, 2007 9:05 pm

noseeum wrote:
Ender wrote:How hard is it to understand what I wrote, ARod will regress to his 3 year average, this is not some new level for him. He had a great April but thats all it was, a hot streak. I said that at the end of April and got called a moron for it and now that exactly what I said happened it means I hate ARod or something. For what its worth all power hitters take bad pitches out for HR's, the good power hitters take a lot of good pitches out too, thats what makes them good hitters.


Gimme a break dude! Good hitters are WAYYY better than bad hitters at hitting mistake pitches! And they can even hit good pitches too!

;-7

I will debate one point with you, and that it is erroneous to assume Arod will regress to his mean by having a terrible stretch that will put him on his career norms. What you can safely predict is that Arod should perform at his career norms from here on out. BUT, since he's outperformed his career norms up to this point, it's likely he's in for a career year. Someone trading for him should only expect his norms from here on out, but in the end, the totals are likely to exceed his norms because of the lead he's got on those norms.

People tend to mistake regression to the mean "he was hot in April, so he should stink for the same amount of time at some point this season, so it all balances out." But that's not what it means. It just means players will typically perform as they typically do. A hot streak does not predict a cold streak, and a cold streak does not predict a hot streak. Just like dice.

You roll 30 7s in a row, and on the next roll, you still have the same chance of rolling a 7 as before. But if you're keeping track for 100 rolls, you should expect that by the end of 100 rolls, you'll have a lot more 7s than is expected for 100 rolls because of that 30 in a row aberration.


Ender never stated that arod's final line would look like his career norms.

Ender wrote:I could see that with the hot start and if he had one more hot month. I think its more likely he ends at 42/43 with 120 RBI myself but the truth is after the hot streak he is a 35 HR/115 pace guy, the amazing hot streak is going to carry him to numbers better than 2004/2006, thats just not his true talent level anymore, not in that park at least.
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Postby noseeum » Tue May 15, 2007 9:12 pm

nebgib5 wrote:
noseeum wrote:
Ender wrote:How hard is it to understand what I wrote, ARod will regress to his 3 year average, this is not some new level for him. He had a great April but thats all it was, a hot streak. I said that at the end of April and got called a moron for it and now that exactly what I said happened it means I hate ARod or something. For what its worth all power hitters take bad pitches out for HR's, the good power hitters take a lot of good pitches out too, thats what makes them good hitters.


Gimme a break dude! Good hitters are WAYYY better than bad hitters at hitting mistake pitches! And they can even hit good pitches too!

;-7

I will debate one point with you, and that it is erroneous to assume Arod will regress to his mean by having a terrible stretch that will put him on his career norms. What you can safely predict is that Arod should perform at his career norms from here on out. BUT, since he's outperformed his career norms up to this point, it's likely he's in for a career year. Someone trading for him should only expect his norms from here on out, but in the end, the totals are likely to exceed his norms because of the lead he's got on those norms.

People tend to mistake regression to the mean "he was hot in April, so he should stink for the same amount of time at some point this season, so it all balances out." But that's not what it means. It just means players will typically perform as they typically do. A hot streak does not predict a cold streak, and a cold streak does not predict a hot streak. Just like dice.

You roll 30 7s in a row, and on the next roll, you still have the same chance of rolling a 7 as before. But if you're keeping track for 100 rolls, you should expect that by the end of 100 rolls, you'll have a lot more 7s than is expected for 100 rolls because of that 30 in a row aberration.


Ender never stated that arod's final line would look like his career norms.

Ender wrote:I could see that with the hot start and if he had one more hot month. I think its more likely he ends at 42/43 with 120 RBI myself but the truth is after the hot streak he is a 35 HR/115 pace guy, the amazing hot streak is going to carry him to numbers better than 2004/2006, thats just not his true talent level anymore, not in that park at least.


Yeah sorry. I meant to bring it up as a point of debate instead of attributing it to Ender.
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Postby Nails » Tue May 15, 2007 9:41 pm

Ender wrote:
That's also what good hitters do...they hit mistakes HARD. A-Rod did that. Pitchers always make mistakes, even the great ones. The great hitters take advantage of those mistakes more often than average hitters. All of your comments in this whole subject are ridiculous. It is obvious that you either 1.) dislike A-Rod or 2.) lack baseball knowledge. Either way, you are making one of the greatest players of or time sound ordinary. Whether you like him or not and regardless of his postseason track record, his career stats are great and he will break records.


Wow, just wow. I never said anything about ARod sucking. This is why i quit posting a few years back, readers who have absolutely no freaking reading comprehension makes having meaningful coversations almost impossible on this site at times.

How hard is it to understand what I wrote, ARod will regress to his 3 year average, this is not some new level for him. He had a great April but thats all it was, a hot streak. I said that at the end of April and got called a moron for it and now that exactly what I said happened it means I hate ARod or something. For what its worth all power hitters take bad pitches out for HR's, the good power hitters take a lot of good pitches out too, thats what makes them good hitters.


Speaking of reading comprehension. Where in that post did I say that you said A-Rod sucked? I do understand your point. A-Rod is not going to keep up the pace he had in April. Anyone who honesly believed he was going to hit 84 HRs or thereabouts is completely insane. I guess it is simply the wording that makes what you say sound bad. When you say regress to his norms, it makes it seem as though you are saying that he will be just okay the rest of the way out. A-Rod's norms are still great.

However, I do not think that you can necessarily say that he will regress to his three year norms. If you take a 4 year average those numbers change. I don't buy the fact that you take the 3-year simply because of playing at Yankee Stadium, because he showed that he can still produce insane seasons in Yankee Stadium. Yankee Stadium is tough on righties, but he 48 two years ago. He can easily hit 40 again. To say that the only reason he hit so many hrs in April because he got pitches right down the middle does sound a little elementary. I will agree it was a hot streak in April, and people that thought it would continue were mostly likely just being hopeful because they were A-Rod owners.
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