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Postby Laean » Mon May 14, 2007 12:03 pm

Yoda wrote:
Laean wrote:i was with you on the original post, but then your 2nd post said he's "still a 35 hr" player.

it was obvious to me (and should've been to anyone else with sense) that his april was a hot streak, and that he was going to slow down substantially. he wasn't going to break any records. for every 14 hr month he was going to have this year, he is going to have a 5 hr month as well.

when i traded arod and wheeler for utley and papelbon during arod's hot streak in one league some people were riding me hard nonstop for a few days. they all stopped talking now. especially seeing as how bj ryan just went on DL for the season for me, i have no regrets about that trade.

with all that said, those 35 hr seasons were in arod's down years. that means he's not a "35 hr hitter." that means he's a "35 hr hitter at his worst." i think, on average, he should be around 43-48.


I still wouldn't have made that trade but that's just me.

50 is well within his reach still.


i'm not saying i ripped him off by any means. i was trying to sell high, but i think i just ended up selling at fair value.

i also agree that he can hit 50 hrs. i have a bet with a friend that he'll hit between 50-55, he says over 55.
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Postby acsguitar » Mon May 14, 2007 1:41 pm

Laean wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Laean wrote:i was with you on the original post, but then your 2nd post said he's "still a 35 hr" player.

it was obvious to me (and should've been to anyone else with sense) that his april was a hot streak, and that he was going to slow down substantially. he wasn't going to break any records. for every 14 hr month he was going to have this year, he is going to have a 5 hr month as well.

when i traded arod and wheeler for utley and papelbon during arod's hot streak in one league some people were riding me hard nonstop for a few days. they all stopped talking now. especially seeing as how bj ryan just went on DL for the season for me, i have no regrets about that trade.

with all that said, those 35 hr seasons were in arod's down years. that means he's not a "35 hr hitter." that means he's a "35 hr hitter at his worst." i think, on average, he should be around 43-48.


I still wouldn't have made that trade but that's just me.

50 is well within his reach still.


i'm not saying i ripped him off by any means. i was trying to sell high, but i think i just ended up selling at fair value.

i also agree that he can hit 50 hrs. i have a bet with a friend that he'll hit between 50-55, he says over 55.


No way he hits over 55...you'll win that bet
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Postby Laean » Mon May 14, 2007 1:45 pm

acsguitar wrote:
Laean wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Laean wrote:i was with you on the original post, but then your 2nd post said he's "still a 35 hr" player.

it was obvious to me (and should've been to anyone else with sense) that his april was a hot streak, and that he was going to slow down substantially. he wasn't going to break any records. for every 14 hr month he was going to have this year, he is going to have a 5 hr month as well.

when i traded arod and wheeler for utley and papelbon during arod's hot streak in one league some people were riding me hard nonstop for a few days. they all stopped talking now. especially seeing as how bj ryan just went on DL for the season for me, i have no regrets about that trade.

with all that said, those 35 hr seasons were in arod's down years. that means he's not a "35 hr hitter." that means he's a "35 hr hitter at his worst." i think, on average, he should be around 43-48.


I still wouldn't have made that trade but that's just me.

50 is well within his reach still.


i'm not saying i ripped him off by any means. i was trying to sell high, but i think i just ended up selling at fair value.

i also agree that he can hit 50 hrs. i have a bet with a friend that he'll hit between 50-55, he says over 55.


No way he hits over 55...you'll win that bet


yep. a free dinner. ;-D
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Postby CBMGreatOne » Mon May 14, 2007 1:48 pm

Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:
Yoda wrote:Were people really predicting that he would break the record? I think he can come close to 60 this year but that's nowhere near the record.


Yes they were, on this forum and on fantasy sites like baseballprospectus. BP predicted he could beat the RBI record. I caught crap for saying it was just a hot streak and he'd revert to his 3 year average stats, people honestly thought it indicated he was reaching some new level of ability.


People just go way overboard with hot/cold streaks.


Well, in that thread, there were two different types of people going overboard. There was one group that was going overboard by saying that he was going to challenge 73. There was still another group that was going overboard by openy diminishing the significance of the hot streak and using words like "Chris Shelton."

I think this thread is even a little reactionary as no one expected he would continue his 130 HR pace. Power surges often come in bunches. He has one bunch, if he gets one more before the all star break he's right back on track to break 50.

And I think even people who were especially optimistic about ARod early in the season were saying around 50.
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Postby Yoda » Mon May 14, 2007 1:58 pm

CBMGreatOne wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:
Yoda wrote:Were people really predicting that he would break the record? I think he can come close to 60 this year but that's nowhere near the record.


Yes they were, on this forum and on fantasy sites like baseballprospectus. BP predicted he could beat the RBI record. I caught crap for saying it was just a hot streak and he'd revert to his 3 year average stats, people honestly thought it indicated he was reaching some new level of ability.


People just go way overboard with hot/cold streaks.


Well, in that thread, there were two different types of people going overboard. There was one group that was going overboard by saying that he was going to challenge 73. There was still another group that was going overboard by openy diminishing the significance of the hot streak and using words like "Chris Shelton."

I think this thread is even a little reactionary as no one expected he would continue his 130 HR pace. Power surges often come in bunches. He has one bunch, if he gets one more before the all star break he's right back on track to break 50.

And I think even people who were especially optimistic about ARod early in the season were saying around 50.


Well, Arod has more talent in his pinky compared to Shelton.

But anyway, it's just funny how people react to streaks hot or cold.
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Postby brandnew » Tue May 15, 2007 12:59 am

You say he's just a 35 HR player after his hot streak... take away most elite hitters' hot streaks and they're "just 35 HR players" as well. Streaks are a part of baseball. You can't really disregard them as flashes in the pan, many players just get hotter for longer periods of time than others.
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Postby noseeum » Tue May 15, 2007 1:09 am

Yoda wrote:
Laean wrote:i was with you on the original post, but then your 2nd post said he's "still a 35 hr" player.

it was obvious to me (and should've been to anyone else with sense) that his april was a hot streak, and that he was going to slow down substantially. he wasn't going to break any records. for every 14 hr month he was going to have this year, he is going to have a 5 hr month as well.

when i traded arod and wheeler for utley and papelbon during arod's hot streak in one league some people were riding me hard nonstop for a few days. they all stopped talking now. especially seeing as how bj ryan just went on DL for the season for me, i have no regrets about that trade.

with all that said, those 35 hr seasons were in arod's down years. that means he's not a "35 hr hitter." that means he's a "35 hr hitter at his worst." i think, on average, he should be around 43-48.


I still wouldn't have made that trade but that's just me.

50 is well within his reach still.


Yeah, me neither. I agree with Think Factory. Papelbon might be on his way to getting hurt again. His mechanics are deteriorating with each game he pitches. Poor kid. Poor Pap


Wheeler should be good all year.

I think I'd still take Arod over Utley, but I could see the other side too, considering how many busts we have right now at 2B.
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Postby Laean » Tue May 15, 2007 8:27 am

noseeum wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Laean wrote:i was with you on the original post, but then your 2nd post said he's "still a 35 hr" player.

it was obvious to me (and should've been to anyone else with sense) that his april was a hot streak, and that he was going to slow down substantially. he wasn't going to break any records. for every 14 hr month he was going to have this year, he is going to have a 5 hr month as well.

when i traded arod and wheeler for utley and papelbon during arod's hot streak in one league some people were riding me hard nonstop for a few days. they all stopped talking now. especially seeing as how bj ryan just went on DL for the season for me, i have no regrets about that trade.

with all that said, those 35 hr seasons were in arod's down years. that means he's not a "35 hr hitter." that means he's a "35 hr hitter at his worst." i think, on average, he should be around 43-48.


I still wouldn't have made that trade but that's just me.

50 is well within his reach still.


Yeah, me neither. I agree with Think Factory. Papelbon might be on his way to getting hurt again. His mechanics are deteriorating with each game he pitches. Poor kid. Poor Pap


Wheeler should be good all year.

I think I'd still take Arod over Utley, but I could see the other side too, considering how many busts we have right now at 2B.


well if pap does have shoulder problems, yeah i won't be happy with that trade. especially with how bj ryan screwed me. but until he does, i certainly can't complain with the #s he's given me.

wheeler started hot and had 3 era and 1 whip in april. 6 era in may so far. personally, i don't like his chances much.
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Tue May 15, 2007 9:39 am

Ender wrote:
mkultra wrote:Yeah, you should probably drop him if you own him. ;-D


Not saying that but people were rallying to his april to say anyone who didn't pick him #1 or #2 was a moron because obviously he had reached a new level this season. He's still the sub 40 HR guy we saw 2 of the past 3 years, he just got a whole lot of pitches right down the middle in April that he hit out of the park. No way to predict that.


I'm a huge ARod fan but he is no longer a sure thing with your top 2 picks, its more a product of that stadium than his ability but I would not be surprised if he missed 40 HR's even with the fast start. I think he probably will just break 40 but it will be close and there is no way he's breaking records like so many people said he would.


Product of that stadium? You're joking right? Yankee Stadium is notoriously hard on right-handed power hitters.

The man won an MVP two years ago with 48 homeruns and 130+ RBIs. To say that this month proves he's a sub-40 homerun hitter who only hits pitches down the middle is asinine.
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Postby Ender » Tue May 15, 2007 10:58 am

BronXBombers51 wrote:
Ender wrote:
mkultra wrote:Yeah, you should probably drop him if you own him. ;-D


Not saying that but people were rallying to his april to say anyone who didn't pick him #1 or #2 was a moron because obviously he had reached a new level this season. He's still the sub 40 HR guy we saw 2 of the past 3 years, he just got a whole lot of pitches right down the middle in April that he hit out of the park. No way to predict that.


I'm a huge ARod fan but he is no longer a sure thing with your top 2 picks, its more a product of that stadium than his ability but I would not be surprised if he missed 40 HR's even with the fast start. I think he probably will just break 40 but it will be close and there is no way he's breaking records like so many people said he would.


Product of that stadium? You're joking right? Yankee Stadium is notoriously hard on right-handed power hitters.

The man won an MVP two years ago with 48 homeruns and 130+ RBIs. To say that this month proves he's a sub-40 homerun hitter who only hits pitches down the middle is asinine.


That was my entire point, the fact he has only managed 40 HR's once in the past 3 years is a product of how hard it is to hit HR's in that stadium not a product of his skill set slipping.

I also never said he only hits pitches down the middle, get some reading comprehension man. I said he got a lot of pitches right down the middle in april and its the simple truth. Go back and watch his HR's, the majority of them were meatballs, he wasn't hitting good pitches out. Thats what most April hot streaks are since pitchers have some pretty spotty control in April.
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