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Postby Ender » Mon May 14, 2007 12:23 am

I know i caught a lot of flack from ARod fans for saying its nothing but a hot streak but in the past 18 games he has 1 HR, 5 RBI. Can we admit at this point that it was just a hot april and he's not going to break the HR or RBI record like people kept saying~
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Postby mkultra » Mon May 14, 2007 12:25 am

Yeah, you should probably drop him if you own him. ;-D
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Postby Ender » Mon May 14, 2007 12:27 am

mkultra wrote:Yeah, you should probably drop him if you own him. ;-D


Not saying that but people were rallying to his april to say anyone who didn't pick him #1 or #2 was a moron because obviously he had reached a new level this season. He's still the sub 40 HR guy we saw 2 of the past 3 years, he just got a whole lot of pitches right down the middle in April that he hit out of the park. No way to predict that.


I'm a huge ARod fan but he is no longer a sure thing with your top 2 picks, its more a product of that stadium than his ability but I would not be surprised if he missed 40 HR's even with the fast start. I think he probably will just break 40 but it will be close and there is no way he's breaking records like so many people said he would.
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Postby pokerplaya » Mon May 14, 2007 12:38 am

Ender wrote:
mkultra wrote:Yeah, you should probably drop him if you own him. ;-D


Not saying that but people were rallying to his april to say anyone who didn't pick him #1 or #2 was a moron because obviously he had reached a new level this season. He's still the sub 40 HR guy we saw 2 of the past 3 years, he just got a whole lot of pitches right down the middle in April that he hit out of the park. No way to predict that.


I'm a huge ARod fan but he is no longer a sure thing with your top 2 picks, its more a product of that stadium than his ability but I would not be surprised if he missed 40 HR's even with the fast start. I think he probably will just break 40 but it will be close and there is no way he's breaking records like so many people said he would.


I still disagree...I never said he would get anywhere to 73hrs or 190rbis but I definitely think 45HR's 125RBI's are within reach.
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Postby Yoda » Mon May 14, 2007 12:40 am

Were people really predicting that he would break the record? I think he can come close to 60 this year but that's nowhere near the record.
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Postby Ender » Mon May 14, 2007 12:43 am

pokerplaya wrote:
Ender wrote:
mkultra wrote:Yeah, you should probably drop him if you own him. ;-D


Not saying that but people were rallying to his april to say anyone who didn't pick him #1 or #2 was a moron because obviously he had reached a new level this season. He's still the sub 40 HR guy we saw 2 of the past 3 years, he just got a whole lot of pitches right down the middle in April that he hit out of the park. No way to predict that.


I'm a huge ARod fan but he is no longer a sure thing with your top 2 picks, its more a product of that stadium than his ability but I would not be surprised if he missed 40 HR's even with the fast start. I think he probably will just break 40 but it will be close and there is no way he's breaking records like so many people said he would.


I still disagree...I never said he would get anywhere to 73hrs or 190rbis but I definitely think 45HR's 125RBI's are within reach.


I could see that with the hot start and if he had one more hot month. I think its more likely he ends at 42/43 with 120 RBI myself but the truth is after the hot streak he is a 35 HR/115 pace guy, the amazing hot streak is going to carry him to numbers better than 2004/2006, thats just not his true talent level anymore, not in that park at least.

Were people really predicting that he would break the record? I think he can come close to 60 this year but that's nowhere near the record.


Yes they were, on this forum and on fantasy sites like baseballprospectus. BP predicted he could beat the RBI record. I caught crap for saying it was just a hot streak and he'd revert to his 3 year average stats, people honestly thought it indicated he was reaching some new level of ability.
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Postby Laean » Mon May 14, 2007 5:39 am

i was with you on the original post, but then your 2nd post said he's "still a 35 hr" player.

it was obvious to me (and should've been to anyone else with sense) that his april was a hot streak, and that he was going to slow down substantially. he wasn't going to break any records. for every 14 hr month he was going to have this year, he is going to have a 5 hr month as well.

when i traded arod and wheeler for utley and papelbon during arod's hot streak in one league some people were riding me hard nonstop for a few days. they all stopped talking now. especially seeing as how bj ryan just went on DL for the season for me, i have no regrets about that trade.

with all that said, those 35 hr seasons were in arod's down years. that means he's not a "35 hr hitter." that means he's a "35 hr hitter at his worst." i think, on average, he should be around 43-48.
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Postby Yoda » Mon May 14, 2007 11:22 am

Laean wrote:i was with you on the original post, but then your 2nd post said he's "still a 35 hr" player.

it was obvious to me (and should've been to anyone else with sense) that his april was a hot streak, and that he was going to slow down substantially. he wasn't going to break any records. for every 14 hr month he was going to have this year, he is going to have a 5 hr month as well.

when i traded arod and wheeler for utley and papelbon during arod's hot streak in one league some people were riding me hard nonstop for a few days. they all stopped talking now. especially seeing as how bj ryan just went on DL for the season for me, i have no regrets about that trade.

with all that said, those 35 hr seasons were in arod's down years. that means he's not a "35 hr hitter." that means he's a "35 hr hitter at his worst." i think, on average, he should be around 43-48.


I still wouldn't have made that trade but that's just me.

50 is well within his reach still.
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Postby Yoda » Mon May 14, 2007 11:23 am

Ender wrote:
Yoda wrote:Were people really predicting that he would break the record? I think he can come close to 60 this year but that's nowhere near the record.


Yes they were, on this forum and on fantasy sites like baseballprospectus. BP predicted he could beat the RBI record. I caught crap for saying it was just a hot streak and he'd revert to his 3 year average stats, people honestly thought it indicated he was reaching some new level of ability.


People just go way overboard with hot/cold streaks.
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Postby acsguitar » Mon May 14, 2007 11:24 am

He's hitting 330 with 15 hr's...

I think he'll be ok
I'm too lazy to make a sig at the moment
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