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J.Upton or C.Maybin?

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Re: J.Upton or C.Maybin?

Postby Curtis Pride » Tue Jun 19, 2007 7:45 pm

It was. But Upton is so much better than Maybin, it's not even worthy of a debate. So I thought it more interesting to discuss Bruce (definitely better) and Rasmus (better) compared to Maybin.
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Re: J.Upton or C.Maybin?

Postby FalcoAtL » Tue Jun 19, 2007 7:50 pm

Didn't the original poster want to discuss Maybin and Upton though? I'm not sure I understand why discussion of the others is needed.
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Re: J.Upton or C.Maybin?

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Jun 19, 2007 7:57 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:It was. But Upton is so much better than Maybin, it's not even worthy of a debate. So I thought it more interesting to discuss Bruce (definitely better) and Rasmus (better) compared to Maybin.


I'm just suprised you have watched all those 20 year olds play so often that you feel so confident in projecting them at this stage with such accuracy. It must be nice to go to all those minor league games enough that you have such conviction in your ability to scout these guys. I mean, since basing such hardline stances on players when we dont watch them play regularly seems silly, surely you must actually watch them play all the time, right?
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Re: J.Upton or C.Maybin?

Postby Curtis Pride » Tue Jun 19, 2007 8:02 pm

Have you? Is this forum locked to professional scouts only? Why the condescention? Possibly because you can't counter my argument?

I'm citing statistics. I'm not a scout nor do I purport to be one. Since I'm not, all I need to do is look at statistics. Maybin's aren't good. They haven't been good for two years. He hasn't improved his K rate, nor his LD%, nor his GB%. IF he's going to strike out 33% of the time and ground out 2/3 of the rest of the time, how on earth can he be valuable?

And regarding "why is it needed?" Why not? I didn't even post on this thread until page 3 or 4. The discussion of UPton-Maybin was over, and had alread moved to other subjects before I got here, thread police. If the thread doesn't interest you, don't read it.

No one is insulting anyone. No one is causing problems. People are discussing players' talents.
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Re: J.Upton or C.Maybin?

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Jun 19, 2007 8:33 pm

Truthfully, it's because you have taken such an agressive approach up to this point. It seems like someone with such conviction would base his stance on something more than numbers. I know this is a fantasy board, but projecting minor leaguers isnt really a fantasy excersize and the numbers dont hold nearly as much weight.

My point is for you to understand that taking such hardline stances about players you cannot actually watch play regularly is a bit too much - its off putting. Relax a bit.
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Re: J.Upton or C.Maybin?

Postby Curtis Pride » Tue Jun 19, 2007 8:38 pm

I don't think its hardline because I don't think it's very controversial. But, OK. I can only keep posting as long as I keep getting replies. So if no one wants to discuss this, I'm fine moving on. I've made my point.
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Re: J.Upton or C.Maybin?

Postby clarkw267 » Sun Jul 01, 2007 2:05 pm

Man... you are something else. You sit there and preach on numbers, yet when a guy is hitting .258 you try to twist it into being a good thing to suit your argument.

Rasmus hit under .260 last year in A+ , and he's doing the same thing again this year in AA.

Until Maybin plays in AA you can't tell me his numbers are going to go way down, because you simply don't know.

I've already pointed out examples of players' numbers getting better as they move from A+ to AA.

Also, for you to sit there and say Maybin isn't an elite prospect is laughable, but then again you were probably saying the same thing about Upton last year as he struggled through the season.
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Re: J.Upton or C.Maybin?

Postby Curtis Pride » Sat Jul 14, 2007 8:29 am

I've been on vacation these last few weeks, so I couldn't respond.

1. No, I never bashed Justin Upton last year.
2. I don't focus on batting average. It's prone to too much flukiness because of BABIP. Maybin's is over .400 which is absolutely, unquestionably unsustainable. He also grounds out 60% of the time and has barely a 10% line drive %, and less than 30% of his hits are XBH. Those four peripheral numbers along with (BB rate - where he's very strong) and K rate (where he's putrid) tell much more about a players performance and development than looking at batting average.
3. Working off the assumption that his numbers will improve as he moves up in levels is completely illogical. It's a harder level, and therefore it stands to reason he'll do worse against better competition. Sure, some may do better, but it's an anomoly. You can't cherry pick people and think that it's a pattern.
4. The only things Maybin has done which can be reviewed positively is overall speed/defense (where he's good and there's no reason to think it won't continue), plate discipline (where he's good and it should also probably continue), and batting average (which absolutely isn't sustainable as he moves up the ladder - debating that fact is ignorant of sabermetrics and is merely wishful thinking
5. Even in your bull case looking at his batting average - he's still not showing much power (and what little there is, has been declining this year) and strikes out a ton. He just hasn't done anything really good over the last two years, while there are other prospects who have dramatically outperformed him.
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