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J.Upton or C.Maybin?

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Re: J.Upton or C.Maybin?

Postby clarkw267 » Fri Jun 08, 2007 3:36 am

Like I said.. you are taking half of a season and using it to say Rasmus is better than Maybin. It's possible that Maybin would put up better numbers than Rasmus in AA if given the chance. Rasmus improved upon his numbers after being promoted to a higher level, so why wouldn't Maybin?
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Re: J.Upton or C.Maybin?

Postby Curtis Pride » Fri Jun 08, 2007 8:29 am

Why not assume that Maybin would be better than he is now against better competition? Because it flies in the face of logic. The competition would be better. He should do worse. That's why Rasmus' performance this year is so impressive. Because it's an anomoly. It normally doesn't happen. People normally struggle as they get promoted. Rasmus has being promoted aggressively and he's still tearing it up.

And it's not just half a season - Rasmus was better last year too.

I'm looking at their entire minor league careers. And Rasmus has been better, while playing at a higher level of compeitition.

I understand that you are a Tiger fan, which may be clouding your judgement. I'm neither a Sox nor Tiger fan. Rasmus is just better.

And to bring the tread back on topic, Upton is better than either of them.
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Re: J.Upton or C.Maybin?

Postby clarkw267 » Fri Jun 08, 2007 2:41 pm

Well you do understand that Rasmus is in the Cards organization right? No Sox involved there.

And also for your "logic" on how top prospects normally struggle as they are promoted..

Rasmus A+:(193 AB) .254 5 HR 35 RBI 11 SB
Rasmus AA:(204 AB) .289 10 HR 37 RBI 8 SB

Upton A:(438 AB) .263 12 HR 66 RBI 15 SB
Upton A+:(126 AB) .341 5 HR 17 RBI 9 SB
Upton AA:(92 AB) .348 7 HR 24 RBI 4 SB

Bruce Rk:(122 AB) .270 5 HR 25 RBI 4 SB
Bruce A:(444 AB) .291 16 HR 81 RBI 19 SB
Bruce A+:(229 AB) .323 10 HR 41 RBI 4 SB


One of the things I noticed when looking at some other prospects from that draft in addition to the one's listed above (Braun, Ellsbury, Tulowitzi.. etc) is that numbers from A+ (Especially the FSL) to AA normally don't decrease , most of the time they stay the same or get better. The place they take a step backwards is normally at AAA.


So now all of these players that you are putting him up against are improving their numbers as they are promoted, but for some reason logic states Maybin wouldn't do the same?

What kind of crap is that.
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Re: J.Upton or C.Maybin?

Postby clarkw267 » Mon Jun 18, 2007 4:20 pm

Um yeah.. looks like your boy is starting to come back to where he was at A+ last year.... .258 BA.
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Re: J.Upton or C.Maybin?

Postby Yoda » Mon Jun 18, 2007 4:34 pm

clarkw267 wrote:Um yeah.. looks like your boy is starting to come back to where he was at A+ last year.... .258 BA.


I think Upton might be one of those guys that gets bored and needs to be constantly challenged.
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Re: J.Upton or C.Maybin?

Postby Curtis Pride » Mon Jun 18, 2007 5:22 pm

And yet, even when hitting under .260 Rasmus is still dramatically more valuable than Maybin. Just goes to show how wide the gap was a month ago
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Re: J.Upton or C.Maybin?

Postby High Heater » Tue Jun 19, 2007 4:12 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:And yet, even when hitting under .260 Rasmus is still dramatically more valuable than Maybin. Just goes to show how wide the gap was a month ago


i get dumber and dumber reading your posts man..... yoda save me ;D
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Re: J.Upton or C.Maybin?

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Jun 19, 2007 7:08 pm

As far as numbers go, Maybin has an OBP over .400, 7HRs, and 21SBs in Lakeland so far this yr. He's still striking out - 69Ks in 62 ABs - but not nearly as much as last yr. Chances are he wont be called up to Erie (AA) until next yr - the Tigers are taking their time with him.

As for the argument about who will be better- who knows - apparantly they are different kinds of players to begin with - one with more speed and one with more power.
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Re: J.Upton or C.Maybin?

Postby Curtis Pride » Tue Jun 19, 2007 7:23 pm

by what metric can you possibly say that Maybin is worth more than Rasmus? Batting average? If it were 1985 and people still thought that were the be-all end-all of offensive statistics, you may have a point.

And even Maybin's higher OPS isn't even that compelling. First, Rasmus is playing at a higher level. Second, Maybin's OPS (both is OBP and SLG) is inflated artificially by his unsustainably high BABIP - which is .430. It's normally .300 in the majors, but is normally higher in the minors (about .325 because of worse fielding). Those that typically sustain a higher BABIP are guys that also have high LD% rates (makes sense, right?) like guys like Jeter, Nomar, and Ichiro, all normally north of 20% and those with high FB%.

Well, Maybin has a 9% LD% which is anemic. He also grounds out 2/3 of the time. What this says is that Maybin's merely beating out ground balls with his fantastic speed. But that's not sustainable as the infield defense he's hitting to improves.

He's got an .871 OPS right now and a .430 BABIP. With a .325 BABIP, his OPS goes down to .753 (.350 OBP .403 SLG), from losing 15 ground ball singles.

He's extremely fast. He's a great fielder. No question. NO debate here. But he struggles as a hitter, and he strikes out way too much.

Cameron Maybin is simply not an elite prospect right now. He's had two years to begin to utilize his "tools" and he's not improved any facet of his game.
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Re: J.Upton or C.Maybin?

Postby FalcoAtL » Tue Jun 19, 2007 7:39 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:by what metric can you possibly say that Maybin is worth more than Rasmus? Batting average? If it were 1985 and people still thought that were the be-all end-all of offensive statistics, you may have a point.

And even Maybin's higher OPS isn't even that compelling. First, Rasmus is playing at a higher level. Second, Maybin's OPS (both is OBP and SLG) is inflated artificially by his unsustainably high BABIP - which is .430. It's normally .300 in the majors, but is normally higher in the minors (about .325 because of worse fielding). Those that typically sustain a higher BABIP are guys that also have high LD% rates (makes sense, right?) like guys like Jeter, Nomar, and Ichiro, all normally north of 20% and those with high FB%.

Well, Maybin has a 9% LD% which is anemic. He also grounds out 2/3 of the time. What this says is that Maybin's merely beating out ground balls with his fantastic speed. But that's not sustainable as the infield defense he's hitting to improves.

He's got an .871 OPS right now and a .430 BABIP. With a .325 BABIP, his OPS goes down to .753 (.350 OBP .403 SLG), from losing 15 ground ball singles.

He's extremely fast. He's a great fielder. No question. NO debate here. But he struggles as a hitter, and he strikes out way too much.

Cameron Maybin is simply not an elite prospect right now. He's had two years to begin to utilize his "tools" and he's not improved any facet of his game.


I thought this thread was a discussion about Upton and Maybin. :?
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