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J.Upton or C.Maybin?

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Postby Urbanist » Thu May 31, 2007 1:54 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:Umm, yes. Cite these scouts.

Not only does he strike out 40% of the time, but he has one of the worst GB/FB ratios in the minors.

He gets very little loft on the ball, and is relying almost exclusively on his speed for an incredibly high BABIP, both last year and this year. He's got a line drive percent less than 10% which is awful. He's got 16 XBH this year after having 35 last year.

When he gets to the majors and good infield defense, his BABIP will normalize and he'll be a bust.

And I've been high on Rasmus since last year - he's better than Maybin, who is one of the most overrated prospects in baseball.

Rasmus was better than Maybin last year, and is MUCH better than Maybin this year, at a higher level. The only thing Maybin has on Rasmus is a bit of speed and he's a bit younger.




Cite these scouts????

All you have to do is talk to people in baseball kid. By people in baseball I mean scouts,Gm's, players. Not internet keyboard warrior scouts. What cracks me up is Maybin has continued to put up good numbers WITH being on a horrible Lakeland club that even started to make Andrew Miller look bad(look what he has done since leaving to Erie). Plus with the back issues(which everyone who doubts Mabin NEVER BRINGS UP).

Its already been well documented he was the rawest coming out of the draft and that he would take a bit longer than soem to show power. This should not take anyhitng away from the fact that he has bonafide superstar ability in the making. Rasmus looks like a nice player no doubt. Never questioned that. Its just the brainwashed reasoning I'm hearing from some who are throwing Maybin under the bus. Maybe it's the brainwashing from Sickels site, who knows.




Perhaps you need to brush up. Like I said before Maybin has had soem back issues this year, which OBVIOUSLY would have an impact on lift. Rasmus does not have the ceiling of Maybin. I'll say it twenty times. Whether Maybin reaches it is another thing, but if your talking potential Maybin has the sky as his.

The only think overrated is the underating of Maybin by people who don't have the whole story.

He is the most RAW, he is the farthest from a finsihed product, and yet he still is puting up very good numbers. What is their not to understand about this? You like whoever you want but I'm telling you, Maybin has much more left.
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Postby Curtis Pride » Thu May 31, 2007 3:37 pm

I don't appreciate the condescending "kid" comment, and I don't need to "brush up" on anything. I perfectly understand the prospects and their weaknesess. Maybing has a hell of a lot more of them than does Rasmus.

You have offered zero proof or evidence to support your postition other than "scouts and GMs say so". I'm sure you'll forgive me when I call BS on you having any insight or communication with either. You say that all of these scouts say he's great? Name them. Show me one quote from one person within the last month that says Maybin is even a top 3 offensive prospect in baseball.

Who cares what everyone thought two years ago when he was drafted? Last year, no one had Lincecum as the #1 prospect in the draft, and now scouts and GMs are fawning over the guy. Performance matters, and Rasmus (among other prospects) have been head and shoulders above Maybin the last two years.

Rave about his upside and talent all you want (again, since you have no insight from actual GMs), but the numbers tell a pretty compelling story. Maybin didn't have lift on his balls last year either (pre-back injury), had an incredibly high ground ball ratio, and an incredibly high BABIP.

He's actually NOT putting up great numbers. He's stealing bases. Whoopee. He's barely got a .300+ average and even that is because 45% of the time he puts the ball in play, he gets a hit. While the vast majority of minor leaguer sare closer to 35%? Why is it high? Not because he's hitting the ball harder than most. His line drive % is only 10%, less than half that of Rasmus. Not because he's hitting a lot of fly balls. His groundball/flyball % is nearly 4:1.

The only reason is because he's incredibly fast, and A-ball defense is poor. He's running out a bunch of infield hits, and squibbing things through the infield. That's a fact. And those balls stop being hits in the upper levels of the majors.

He has yet to show much power. It's been two years. He's roughly the same age as Bruce and Rasmus. he's older than Snider and Lars Anderson. Why has their power developed and his hasn't? How "raw" can he be when his development is behind guys who are younger and were drafted a year later?

And a groundball hitter (which Maybin has been for the last two years - discounting your "it's his back" argument) who also strikes out 1/3 of his at bats (which projects to 200ks in a 600AB season) is of no use to anyone.

He either needs to dramatically reduce his Ks or dramatically improve his line-drive %.

Like a 100MPH fastball for a pitcher, incredible speed can mask a lot of deficiencies in the lower levels that get exposed in the majors.

See Matt Anderson for pitchers and Joey Gathright for hitters.

Say his "upside is unlimited" all you want. That's a meaningless tatement. There is no way to quantify what you are talking about. It's been two years since he was drafted. Performance matters, and Maybins' hasn't been that great - empty average supported by an unsustainable anomolous BABIP, and lower power numbers due to very poor line drive and GB/FB %, and a MASSIVE hole in his swing resulting in striking out more than 1/3 of his at bats - even Adam Dunn and Russ Branyan were better in the minors.
Last edited by Curtis Pride on Thu May 31, 2007 11:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Thu May 31, 2007 4:45 pm

How about both of you guys do me a huge favor and calm down. :-t
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Postby clarkw267 » Sat Jun 02, 2007 6:46 pm

Does anyone take defense into account for baseball anymore?

Maybin is an outstanding defensive CF, and say what you want... Compare Maybin's #s from last year to Upton's or Rasmus' and they are as good if not better.

Rasmus struggled in the FSL last year and in case you don't remember that's the same league Maybin is in right now.

And sometimes it takes guys some time to develop power. Ask Adrian Gonzalez..

I'd take Maybin over either of those guys if I were a GM.
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Postby Curtis Pride » Sun Jun 03, 2007 12:02 pm

Comparing Maybin's numbers this year to Rasmus or Upton's doesn't really proove much of a point.

Maybin is a few months younger than Rasmus and a few months older than Upton. But they are all the same "baseball age" meaning they all were drafted out of highschool and went to the pros.

The fact that Upton and Rasmus are progressing faster than Maybin (both at AA) is evidence that Upton and Rasmus are better. That Maybin is already in a level that the other two have skipped, is a notch against Maybin NOT for him.

I'd be interested to see any defensive stats you have that show how great Maybin is compared to Rasmus. I believe Rasmus already have double digit assists from the outfield - but I can't find any statistics, so I may be mistaken.
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Postby clarkw267 » Sun Jun 03, 2007 2:09 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:Comparing Maybin's numbers this year to Rasmus or Upton's doesn't really proove much of a point.

Maybin is a few months younger than Rasmus and a few months older than Upton. But they are all the same "baseball age" meaning they all were drafted out of highschool and went to the pros.

The fact that Upton and Rasmus are progressing faster than Maybin (both at AA) is evidence that Upton and Rasmus are better. That Maybin is already in a level that the other two have skipped, is a notch against Maybin NOT for him.

I'd be interested to see any defensive stats you have that show how great Maybin is compared to Rasmus. I believe Rasmus already have double digit assists from the outfield - but I can't find any statistics, so I may be mistaken.


The fact is.. when all 3 were in the the Midwest league.. the numbers were comparable. Upton actually was hitting nearly 40 points lower than the other 2... Rasmus went up to the FSL and struggled. Maybin and Upton stayed in the Midwest to complete the season.

This year Rasmus started in AA and has done well. Maybin and Upton started at A+ and both were playing well, In the same league Rasmus struggled in a year ago.

Upton has since been called up and has continued to do hit well despite striking out at a high level just like Maybin. Maybin hasn't been given the chance to play in AA yet, so how do you know his numbers wouldn't be better?

And just because a player was promoted faster doesn't make them better... that's just idiotic. Just because Slowey is up and Gallardo and Bailey aren't it doens't make him better.

If you want to look at what Maybin can do against better competition.. In spring training he was 9-21 with 2 triples, 2 HRs, and a K:BB rate of 5:4.

It's also a widely held opintion that Maybin is one of the best defensive OF prospects out there.. BA had him as the Tiger's best defensive OF prospect over Granderson and Clevlen last year which is saying something.
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Postby Yoda » Sun Jun 03, 2007 3:20 pm

Just my personal opinion but I feel that Maybin is slightly overrated.
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Postby Curtis Pride » Sun Jun 03, 2007 3:39 pm

the fact is....Maybin's numbers are just as good as Rasmus - when Rasmus was younger than Maybin - therefore, it's not an appropriate comparison.

At the same age, Rasmus is putting up superior numbers in AA than Maybin is putting up in A+

Surely you realize that as hard as you think FSL may be, it's not anywhere close to AA.
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Postby clarkw267 » Sun Jun 03, 2007 4:09 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:the fact is....Maybin's numbers are just as good as Rasmus - when Rasmus was younger than Maybin - therefore, it's not an appropriate comparison.

At the same age, Rasmus is putting up superior numbers in AA than Maybin is putting up in A+

Surely you realize that as hard as you think FSL may be, it's not anywhere close to AA.


That's nonsense... he was 6 months younger than Maybin at this time last year. Also you can't ingnore the back problems that Maybin has been having.

Craig Brazell might as well get put into the HOF right now... since you take half of a season to value a players worth.
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Postby Curtis Pride » Sun Jun 03, 2007 4:27 pm

Brazell is 27. That comparison isn't valid. Rasmus and Maybin ARE THE SAME AGE! Maybin is 6 mos younger, but they are the same baseball age. They are both two years removed from highschool and two years into their professional careers.

Rasmus was as good last year (if not better), and is better this year AT A HIGHER LEVEL.

There is no datapoint to support the thought that Maybin is better than Rasmus, other than looking at two year old scouting reports before the draft.

You may have the belief that Maybin is better, and that's fine. And you may believe that we can discount this year because Maybin has been "hurt", and that's fine too. And maybe you still lend credence to the two year old scouting reports, and that's fine too.

But looking at their numbers over their professional career, there is really no logical argument to say that Maybin is better than Rasmus.

Of the HS outfielders drafted in '05, Maybin is no better than 3rd right now, and probably not even better than Bruce. But Maybin is definitely a better fielder than Bruce, and has much more speed - so I'll say it's a toss-up between Maybin and Bruce. But Rasmus and Upton are head and shoulders above both of them.
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