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It's time to change the Win rule for pitchers!

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Postby pokerplaya » Tue May 08, 2007 11:29 pm

Madison wrote:Surprised this didn't get bumped. Lidge's line tonight:

1/3rd of an inning, K, WIN! :*)


And on my bench...doh. :*)
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Postby Ursa » Tue May 08, 2007 11:40 pm

Couple of things to throw out there....

Why not have a winless game option where no pitcher gets the win?
Wins are the most overrated stat in the game, IMO. QS, ERA and WHIP are way more telling of the true worth of a pitcher, as are K/9 and BB/9. Wins depend entirely on the bullpen and the batters.

One other, while I think about it:

When a pitcher records an error, runs scored afterwards generally are unearned. This is a complete nonsense - all those runs should count against the pitcher. Anybody remember the Mark Buehrle fiasco last year against the Twins where he gave up seven in an inning, six unearned? It was his error that started the cascade. He got the win in that game too, IIRC.
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Postby jfg » Wed May 09, 2007 12:49 am

Ursa wrote:Couple of things to throw out there....

Why not have a winless game option where no pitcher gets the win?
Wins are the most overrated stat in the game, IMO. QS, ERA and WHIP are way more telling of the true worth of a pitcher, as are K/9 and BB/9. Wins depend entirely on the bullpen and the batters.

One other, while I think about it:

When a pitcher records an error, runs scored afterwards generally are unearned. This is a complete nonsense - all those runs should count against the pitcher. Anybody remember the Mark Buehrle fiasco last year against the Twins where he gave up seven in an inning, six unearned? It was his error that started the cascade. He got the win in that game too, IIRC.


I think errors shouldn't discount the run as a whole. If it was a one base error the pitcher should be on the hook for 3/4ths of a run if that player scores. Just think of how many runs a year are unearned even though it only moved a baserunner one bag. It's kind of lame crediting a pitcher for a fraction of a run but I think it's worse not counting the run at all.
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Postby RynMan » Wed May 09, 2007 4:05 am

bigh0rt wrote:
wrveres wrote:This is why they have the stat "Quality Start" ...


My thoughts as well.


I could live with the Win stat staying, but how about we just phase out it's use in the media as a statistic to describe the effectiveness of a pitcher. You always hear "This guy is 20 and 4 at home"......wow, great.

You hear them refer to quality starts much less.

The media and ignorant baseball people have glorified the statistic. You just have to cast it back into irrelevance.
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Postby J35J » Wed May 09, 2007 10:55 am

Here is everyone with at least 3 quality starts - games started - wins - wins/qs

Sorted Desc by games started.

Obviously if a guy has over 100% then his offense has really been helping him out and less than 100% usually means his offense/bullpen/defense hasn't been helping much.

Code: Select all
PLAYER   TEAM   GS   Wins   QS   Wins/QS
Roy Oswalt   HOU   8   5   6   83.3%
Tom Glavine   NYM   8   4   6   66.7%
Dontrelle Willis   FLA   7   5   3   166.7%
Josh Beckett   BOS   7   7   5   140.0%
Johan Santana   MIN   7   4   3   133.3%
Aaron Harang   CIN   7   4   3   133.3%
Jeff Suppan   MIL   7   5   5   100.0%
John Lackey   LAA   7   4   4   100.0%
Chris Young   SDG   7   4   4   100.0%
Cole Hamels   PHI   7   4   4   100.0%
Randy Wolf   LAD   7   3   3   100.0%
Erik Bedard   BAL   7   3   3   100.0%
Jorge De La Rosa   KAN   7   3   3   100.0%
Dave Bush   MIL   7   3   3   100.0%
Scott Olsen   FLA   7   3   3   100.0%
C.C. Sabathia   CLE   7   5   6   83.3%
Curt Schilling   BOS   7   4   5   80.0%
Derek Lowe   LAD   7   3   4   75.0%
Joe Blanton   OAK   7   3   4   75.0%
John Smoltz   ATL   7   4   6   66.7%
Braden Looper   STL   7   4   6   66.7%
Roy Halladay   TOR   7   4   6   66.7%
Jake Peavy   SDG   7   4   6   66.7%
Chad Gaudin   OAK   7   2   3   66.7%
Barry Zito   SFO   7   3   5   60.0%
Brad Penny   LAD   7   4   7   57.1%
Livan Hernandez   ARI   7   3   6   50.0%
Gil Meche   KAN   7   3   6   50.0%
Dan Haren   OAK   7   3   6   50.0%
A.J. Burnett   TOR   7   2   4   50.0%
Ben Sheets   MIL   7   2   4   50.0%
Jeremy Bonderman   DET   7   2   4   50.0%
Brandon Webb   ARI   7   2   4   50.0%
Scott Kazmir   TAM   7   2   4   50.0%
Daniel Cabrera   BAL   7   2   4   50.0%
Ervin Santana   LAA   7   2   4   50.0%
Tim Hudson   ATL   7   3   7   42.9%
Andy Pettitte   NYY   7   2   5   40.0%
Doug Davis   ARI   7   2   5   40.0%
Bronson Arroyo   CIN   7   2   5   40.0%
Ted Lilly   CHC   7   2   6   33.3%
Shawn Hill   WAS   7   2   6   33.3%
Ian Snell   PIT   7   2   6   33.3%
Vicente Padilla   TEX   7   1   3   33.3%
Kip Wells   STL   7   1   3   33.3%
Zack Greinke   KAN   7   1   3   33.3%
Jeff Francis   COL   7   1   3   33.3%
Steve Trachsel   BAL   7   1   4   25.0%
Aaron Cook   COL   7   1   4   25.0%
Zach Duke   PIT   7   1   4   25.0%
Kyle Lohse   CIN   7   1   5   20.0%
Matt Cain   SFO   7   1   5   20.0%
Woody Williams   HOU   7   0   4   0.0%
Boof Bonser   MIN   7   0   3   0.0%
John Maine   NYM   6   5   5   100.0%
Matt Morris   SFO   6   4   4   100.0%
Noah Lowry   SFO   6   4   4   100.0%
Tom Gorzelanny   PIT   6   4   4   100.0%
Miguel Batista   SEA   6   3   3   100.0%
Matt Belisle   CIN   6   3   3   100.0%
Daisuke Matsuzaka   BOS   6   3   3   100.0%
Jason Marquis   CHC   6   4   5   80.0%
Rich Hill   CHC   6   4   5   80.0%
Robinson Tejeda   TEX   6   3   4   75.0%
James Shields   TAM   6   3   4   75.0%
Greg Maddux   SDG   6   2   3   66.7%
Javier Vazquez   CHW   6   2   3   66.7%
Casey Fossum   TAM   6   2   3   66.7%
Jose Contreras   CHW   6   2   3   66.7%
Adam Wainwright   STL   6   2   3   66.7%
Brandon McCarthy   TEX   6   2   3   66.7%
Tim Wakefield   BOS   6   3   5   60.0%
Ramon Ortiz   MIN   6   3   5   60.0%
Nate Robertson   DET   6   3   5   60.0%
Jamie Moyer   PHI   6   3   6   50.0%
Jarrod Washburn   SEA   6   2   4   50.0%
Carlos Silva   MIN   6   2   4   50.0%
Jason Hirsh   COL   6   2   4   50.0%
Mark Buehrle   CHW   6   2   5   40.0%
Justin Verlander   DET   6   2   5   40.0%
Jake Westbrook   CLE   6   1   3   33.3%
Jon Garland   CHW   6   1   4   25.0%
Wandy Rodriguez   HOU   6   0   4   0.0%
Jason Bergmann   WAS   6   0   4   0.0%
Jeremy Sowers   CLE   6   0   4   0.0%
Kelvim Escobar   LAA   5   3   3   100.0%
Fausto Carmona   CLE   5   3   4   75.0%
Micah Owings   ARI   5   2   3   66.7%
Orlando Hernandez   NYM   5   2   4   50.0%
Brett Tomko   LAD   5   0   3   0.0%
Bartolo Colon   LAA   4   3   3   100.0%
Paul Byrd   CLE   4   2   3   66.7%
Matt Albers   HOU   4   1   3   33.3%
Rich Harden   OAK   3   1   3   33.3%
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Postby jr461 » Wed May 09, 2007 12:04 pm

2 things where there wouldn't be a judgement call and, IMO, would make things more equitable:

1. Wins:
Only where a starter pitched through the 8th inning with a lead and the lead is blown in the 9th inning AND where the team comes back and wins in their next at bat, should the starter get the win and not the reliever who blew the lead.
Example: Schilling goes 8, Bosox winning by 1 run going to the 9th. Papelbon gives up a run. Next time up, Bosox win. Schilling should get the win, not a reward for Papelbon. If they were the visitors and Papelbon was still in the game, he can still get the save even though he blew it intiially. If he blows it again, all bets are off.

This leaves it to pure rule and no judgement by the official scorer.

2. ERA:
I have always thougth that inherited runners who score should be split evenly between the reliever and the previous pitcher. Why should the reliever bear no responsibility? WHo cares if there are fractions of runs against?
Example: Mussina, pitcihing a shutout to this point, leaves with 2 outs and bases loaded. Proctor give up a HR and then gets the final out. Mussina should be charged with 1.5 runs and Proctor 2.5 instead of 3 and 1.

And finally, who decided what a quality start is?
Where I come from, it would be 7 innings or more and 3 earned runs or less, preferably with 2 walks or less. This idea that 6 innings and 3 earned runs is quality is nonsense. That would make every starter with an ERA of 4.5 and 180 or so innings pitched for the year a quality starter.

Just my opinions...any thoughts?
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Postby J35J » Wed May 09, 2007 1:30 pm

jr461 wrote:2 things where there wouldn't be a judgement call and, IMO, would make things more equitable:

1. Wins:
Only where a starter pitched through the 8th inning with a lead and the lead is blown in the 9th inning AND where the team comes back and wins in their next at bat, should the starter get the win and not the reliever who blew the lead.
Example: Schilling goes 8, Bosox winning by 1 run going to the 9th. Papelbon gives up a run. Next time up, Bosox win. Schilling should get the win, not a reward for Papelbon. If they were the visitors and Papelbon was still in the game, he can still get the save even though he blew it intiially. If he blows it again, all bets are off.

This leaves it to pure rule and no judgement by the official scorer.

2. ERA:
I have always thougth that inherited runners who score should be split evenly between the reliever and the previous pitcher. Why should the reliever bear no responsibility? WHo cares if there are fractions of runs against?
Example: Mussina, pitcihing a shutout to this point, leaves with 2 outs and bases loaded. Proctor give up a HR and then gets the final out. Mussina should be charged with 1.5 runs and Proctor 2.5 instead of 3 and 1.

And finally, who decided what a quality start is?
Where I come from, it would be 7 innings or more and 3 earned runs or less, preferably with 2 walks or less. This idea that 6 innings and 3 earned runs is quality is nonsense. That would make every starter with an ERA of 4.5 and 180 or so innings pitched for the year a quality starter.
Just my opinions...any thoughts?


Sadly that is a quality starter in this era....most fantasy players don't realize this though because those players usually aren't good enough to get on a fantasy team but a 4.5 ERA and 180 IP for the year is a solid #3 or #4 starter on most all big league teams!
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Postby J35J » Wed May 09, 2007 1:31 pm

....also as far as 4.5 ERA and 180IP being a quality start....that is the worst a quality starter could do...thats the bad end of a quality start.
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Postby George_Foreman » Wed May 09, 2007 2:18 pm

J35J wrote:....also as far as 4.5 ERA and 180IP being a quality start....that is the worst a quality starter could do...thats the bad end of a quality start.
I think that's a fine standard. My only problem with that is adjusting it for era. (ie, A 4.50 in 1970 is a lot worse than a 4.50 today.)
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Postby StlSluggers » Wed May 09, 2007 2:24 pm

I'll echo the others. If this bothers you, get out of a W-based league and get into a QS-based league. The only thing that bothers me about QS is that a pitcher can go 6 innings and give up 3 ER for a 4.50 ERA and a QS, but 4 ER in 9 innings (for a 4.00 ERA) would not get him a QS.

Obviously, the rule for QS needs to be changed so that it awards it to a pitcher with an ERA of 4.50 or lower in a game where he pitched a minimum of 6 full innings. If they could make that change, I would be perfectly content.
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