frog99 wrote:using bill james Favorite Toy i found Arod has a 43.29% chance of getting 700 Homeruns. (I used arods projected homerun total of this year in my equation, and figured it as if this current season is over). But that number is scewed because Arod should hit less homeruns now that he is playing in Yankee staduim instead of Texas. even so...
chance of getting 756 homeruns: 29%
chance of reaching 800 homeruns: 20.87%
chance of reaching 900 homeruns: 7.13%
chance of reaching 950 homeruns: 2.08%
The only problem with the "Favorite Toy" is that the percentages can change wildly from year to to year. Check out Griffey, Thomas, and Gonzales, percentages from 1999-2000. They were all on pace for well over 600-700 HRs back then. That's the whole thing about "projecting" A-Rod's HR total, a lot can happen between now and say age 35.