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How many homeruns will A-Rod hit?

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Postby Tavish » Tue Jun 15, 2004 9:22 pm

A-Rod ;-D
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Postby LCBOY » Tue Jun 15, 2004 10:00 pm

Honus Wagner ;-D

Where's DK when I need him? :-D
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Postby blankman » Tue Jun 15, 2004 10:07 pm

LCBOY wrote:
ajgnydc722 wrote:You wanna waste any more posts by saying:

ARod :-t

??

Maybe you could contribute something a little more useful than just saying that over and over.


Then why did you waste a post responding to my post? :-°


To tell you to stop filling this with garbage like that and put an end to it all.
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Postby ajgnydc722 » Tue Jun 15, 2004 10:15 pm

blankman wrote:
LCBOY wrote:
ajgnydc722 wrote:You wanna waste any more posts by saying:

ARod :-t

??

Maybe you could contribute something a little more useful than just saying that over and over.


Then why did you waste a post responding to my post? :-°


To tell you to stop filling this with garbage like that and put an end to it all.


Exactly.
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Postby LCBOY » Wed Jun 16, 2004 8:25 pm

blankman wrote:
LCBOY wrote:
ajgnydc722 wrote:You wanna waste any more posts by saying:

ARod :-t

??

Maybe you could contribute something a little more useful than just saying that over and over.


Then why did you waste a post responding to my post? :-°


To tell you to stop filling this with garbage like that and put an end to it all.


If you don't like my posts, then don't read them...
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Postby DK » Thu Jun 17, 2004 6:27 pm

LCBOY wrote:Honus Wagner ;-D

Where's DK when I need him? :-D


Bastard. :D
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Postby LCBOY » Sat Jun 19, 2004 10:17 pm

DK wrote:
LCBOY wrote:Honus Wagner ;-D

Where's DK when I need him? :-D


Bastard. :D


That's Mr. Bastard to you, DK! :-D :-D
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Postby frog99 » Mon Jun 21, 2004 6:08 pm

using bill james Favorite Toy i found Arod has a 43.29% chance of getting 700 Homeruns. (I used arods projected homerun total of this year in my equation, and figured it as if this current season is over). But that number is scewed because Arod should hit less homeruns now that he is playing in Yankee staduim instead of Texas. even so...


chance of getting 756 homeruns: 29%

chance of reaching 800 homeruns: 20.87%

chance of reaching 900 homeruns: 7.13%

chance of reaching 950 homeruns: 2.08%
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Postby ajgnydc722 » Mon Jun 21, 2004 9:28 pm

My prediction: 784 homeruns :-D
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Postby LCBOY » Tue Jun 22, 2004 2:59 pm

frog99 wrote:using bill james Favorite Toy i found Arod has a 43.29% chance of getting 700 Homeruns. (I used arods projected homerun total of this year in my equation, and figured it as if this current season is over). But that number is scewed because Arod should hit less homeruns now that he is playing in Yankee staduim instead of Texas. even so...


chance of getting 756 homeruns: 29%

chance of reaching 800 homeruns: 20.87%

chance of reaching 900 homeruns: 7.13%

chance of reaching 950 homeruns: 2.08%


The only problem with the "Favorite Toy" is that the percentages can change wildly from year to to year. Check out Griffey, Thomas, and Gonzales, percentages from 1999-2000. They were all on pace for well over 600-700 HRs back then. That's the whole thing about "projecting" A-Rod's HR total, a lot can happen between now and say age 35.
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