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Now That The Josh Hamilton Band Wagon Is Starting To End ...

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Postby shasty mcnasty » Sun May 06, 2007 6:26 pm

SmartassBoiler wrote:I wonder where all the people doubting him are at now after the past two games. It's amazing the overreactions to slumps, as small as this one was, on this board.


it's all about guys looking for the next Chris Shelton...people figure they got burned, or saw others get burned last year by Shelton, so of course, the next quasi-unknown/unexpected guy who gets hot in April must be Chris Shelton....except that this guy is a different cat. :-D
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Postby J35J » Sun May 06, 2007 6:33 pm

Its not about overreacting to slumps, its about him never playing above A ball and being out of baseball for 2+ years. He's been playing well, I'm happy for him, but I'd still be looking to sell him high as it would be very impressive if he can keep it up all season. Being out for 2 years and all the off the field problems I'd be surprised if his stamia and mentality is up for 162 games......I'll still expect a decline as the season goes on. I'm happy for him though, good story!
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Postby joecahill » Sun May 06, 2007 6:43 pm

Anyone watch the game today? If you didn't, you should absolutely watch Baseball Tonight to see if his outfield assist made Web Gems. Taveras was on first, and Tulowitzki hit a single to center. Taveras tried to stretch it out by running to third; he was about ten feet past the second base bag when the ball got to Hamilton in center, and you know Taveras isn't a slow guy. Hamilton threw an absolute laser to Encarnacion at third, and Taveras was out by a mile. When are teams going to learn not to try to run on this guy?
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Postby bselig » Sun May 06, 2007 6:52 pm

colt4523 wrote:This just in! Hamilton is still good ;-D


Yup he's good at baseball and at hitting- too bad i don't own him
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Postby jswede » Sun May 06, 2007 6:56 pm

J35J wrote:Its not about overreacting to slumps, its about him never playing above A ball and being out of baseball for 2+ years. He's been playing well, I'm happy for him, but I'd still be looking to sell him high as it would be very impressive if he can keep it up all season. Being out for 2 years and all the off the field problems I'd be surprised if his stamia and mentality is up for 162 games......I'll still expect a decline as the season goes on. I'm happy for him though, good story!


I'm so very much on the opposite side of that one.... After 3+ years out, he plays a few months of A-ball last year and he's doing this. I'd not be selling at all - my thoughts are he's going to be even better going into next year with a full season under his belt. (I shoudl mention I'm talking keeper here)

and as far as wearing out goes - you know he's an athletic freak, right? 6'4" 235 with like zero body fat. The Reds and those who see him up close say he's got the best arm and bat speed on the team.

I've brought it up before, but here's a #1 pick that scouts were calling a once in a generation type player, that Adam Dunn called the best player he'd ever seen in 1999, and called him that again this year in spring training. Why would Adam Dunn jsut throw that out? Then Ryan Freel is telling the manager that he'll sit to get the guy playing time if he has to. This doesn't happen every day.

This situation/player just feels different all around to me, as compared to other flashes in the pan.
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Postby J35J » Sun May 06, 2007 7:01 pm

jswede wrote: (I shoudl mention I'm talking keeper here)



Its a no brainer to keep him in keeper/dynasty leagues. I don't play in those so I'm just talking about redrafts. Either way, keep him or don't, doesn't matter to me. I'm just stating how I would play it.....
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Postby Yoda » Sun May 06, 2007 7:12 pm

jswede wrote:
J35J wrote:Its not about overreacting to slumps, its about him never playing above A ball and being out of baseball for 2+ years. He's been playing well, I'm happy for him, but I'd still be looking to sell him high as it would be very impressive if he can keep it up all season. Being out for 2 years and all the off the field problems I'd be surprised if his stamia and mentality is up for 162 games......I'll still expect a decline as the season goes on. I'm happy for him though, good story!


I'm so very much on the opposite side of that one.... After 3+ years out, he plays a few months of A-ball last year and he's doing this. I'd not be selling at all - my thoughts are he's going to be even better going into next year with a full season under his belt. (I shoudl mention I'm talking keeper here)

and as far as wearing out goes - you know he's an athletic freak, right? 6'4" 235 with like zero body fat. The Reds and those who see him up close say he's got the best arm and bat speed on the team.

I've brought it up before, but here's a #1 pick that scouts were calling a once in a generation type player, that Adam Dunn called the best player he'd ever seen in 1999, and called him that again this year in spring training. Why would Adam Dunn jsut throw that out? Then Ryan Freel is telling the manager that he'll sit to get the guy playing time if he has to. This doesn't happen every day.

This situation/player just feels different all around to me, as compared to other flashes in the pan.


Players say things about other players all the time I never put any stock into them.

That being said, unless you are blown away with an offer, I would hang onto him. The value of him potentially being a stud on your roster is probably greater than what you can get for him right now. Still, there is a lot of baseball to be played so I wouldn't expect him to keep up at this rate.
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Postby CBMGreatOne » Sun May 06, 2007 7:19 pm

J35J wrote:Its not about overreacting to slumps, its about him never playing above A ball and being out of baseball for 2+ years. He's been playing well, I'm happy for him, but I'd still be looking to sell him high as it would be very impressive if he can keep it up all season. Being out for 2 years and all the off the field problems I'd be surprised if his stamia and mentality is up for 162 games......I'll still expect a decline as the season goes on. I'm happy for him though, good story!


Bingo, at this point right now, he is definitely a terriffic sell high. Now that he's hit, slumped and hit again, people are going to think that the last valley was just temporary, not just that pitchers finally figured him out.

Before I don't think there was much of an opportunity to truly sell high, but now there definitely is.

He was playing for his job, on my bench for basically all of last week, but I still wasn't all that close to cutting him. I'm sure glad I had some patience with this guy. ;-D

Now I'll see if I can draw up some sell high scenarios.
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Postby jswede » Sun May 06, 2007 7:40 pm

Yoda wrote:Players say things about other players all the time I never put any stock into them.


I guess I've never heard a 7yr vet with an All-star appearance call a kid who'd never even seen a ML at-bat the "best I've ever seen". That's a lot of MLB'ers he's indirectly dissing. Apparently it happens. and no, I don't think that means he's the best ever by any means at all - I do think it's remarkable though.
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Postby CBMGreatOne » Sun May 06, 2007 8:02 pm

dmendro wrote:
alchemy wrote:Fortunately, or unfortunately, I watch most games because I got the MLB mosaic mumbo-jumbo.

Hamilton looks good. But only cause teams don't have a gameplan on him. Same story with a lot of new guys in the league. Teams start keying in on player tendencies and they adjust.

I may seem like a disgruntled EE owner. But, Edwin Encarnacion has shown serious potential at third base.

It's interesting -- and admittedly this is a strange tangent -- over the past four years, the Reds had two other players who suddenly put up tremendous numbers in Wily Mo Pena and Jose Guillen. I don't remember the team handing them starting jobs. Hmm ... what do Jose Guillen and Wily Mo Pena have in common that Josh Hamilton doesn't?



they can't play defense? Hamilton is a fantastic defensive player. He could easily get a gold glove if he plays full time. Great arm, great glove, speed, quick, powerful bat. I mean you said you've seen him play, but did you actually watch him play? He's fluid.

Yes he will struggle at times, as do ALL MLB players. We'll see how he does, but I see no reason so far to get off the sauce when it comes to Hamilton. He has a very nice 11/17 BB/K ratio, which is something you want from a slugger. He's got a real nice .254/.361/.563 ratio, after going hitless in 3 games.


Not to mention that Guillen had a terrible attitude problem that actually got him cut from the Angels a few years ago even though he was among their most productive hitters. Besides, Guillen could have been (practically was really) a top 20 fantasy OF for a couple of seasons there.

As for comparing Hamilton to Shelton...

Please people, stop trying to find the next Chris Shelton.

It seems like every stinking hitter who has gotten off to a hot start has been compared to Shelton. It's getting REALLY old.

Hitters don't do what Shelton did in April and then do what Shelton did after April. It just doesn't happen... except that one time.

Why is everybody so eager to find the next Chris Shelton? We probably won't see anything that extreme for the next 20 years.

Sure I'm exaggerating about there never being Chris Shelton-like situations, but only a little bit.
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