Observations About Bonderman - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Observations About Bonderman

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby d18Mike » Tue May 01, 2007 4:21 pm

I live in DET and see almost all of his starts -- and you guys are right on. Bonderman is a great pitcher who is absolutely horrible in the first inning: 13.50ERA in 5 starts this year, 9.00+ in 2005. We just turn the TV on at 7:30, skip the first inning and hope for the best.
d18Mike
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1696
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby d18Mike » Wed May 09, 2007 7:42 am

Yet another Bonderman first inning blow-up last night. It's now officially as puzzling as E. Santana's Home/Road splits. His first inning ERA this year is over 15.00

This from Sportsline:

Bonderman was bounced around for three runs in the first inning before settling down. Opponents are batting .421 in the first against Bonderman -- .229 in every other inning -- and have scored 14 of 23 runs against him in the opening inning this year. "I don't think it's just this season," Bonderman said. "And that's the problem."
d18Mike
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1696
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Sid Bream's Slide » Wed May 09, 2007 8:02 am

d18Mike wrote:Yet another Bonderman first inning blow-up last night. It's now officially as puzzling as E. Santana's Home/Road splits. His first inning ERA this year is over 15.00

This from Sportsline:

Bonderman was bounced around for three runs in the first inning before settling down. Opponents are batting .421 in the first against Bonderman -- .229 in every other inning -- and have scored 14 of 23 runs against him in the opening inning this year. "I don't think it's just this season," Bonderman said. "And that's the problem."


Reminds me of Glavine back in the day
Sid Bream's Slide
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Matchup Meltdown Survivor
Posts: 1274
Joined: 12 Apr 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby abc11435 » Wed May 09, 2007 11:28 am

What the heck, now I don't know if I should drop Bondy. I'm already getting killed in ERA and WHIP... only if theres a way to add him after the 2nd inning...
abc11435
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 702
(Past Year: 23)
Joined: 26 Apr 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby StlSluggers » Wed May 09, 2007 11:29 am

It's actually pretty simple. Don't drop him.
StlSluggers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 14716
Joined: 24 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Parking in the gov't bldg @ 7th and Pine. It's only $3.00 on game day!

Postby J35J » Wed May 09, 2007 11:40 am

I've always wondered why people always want to drop struggling players who are good or have been good. You can ALWAYS trade those guys for something better than what you can get off waivers or fa. In Bonderman's case....don't drop him and don't trade him unless you can get good value back.
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10467
(Past Year: 369)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Observations About Bonderman

Postby reynolds80 » Wed May 09, 2007 12:43 pm

StlSluggers wrote:After watching another mediocre (if not poor) performance from Bonderman last night, I hit the stat sites in search of data that make me feel better. I have to admit that I was surprised by what I found.

First, let's focus on Bonderman's problem his last two outings. He's given up 20 hits in just 11 innings while walking only 2 batters. My first assumption was that he was just getting unlucky, so I was expecting to see a high BABIP or BHIP rating supporting my assumption. I found the opposite.

Bonderman's BABIP over the last two games was only slightly over his average from the last two years, which was right around .330. Conventional wisdom for BABIP says that most pitchers will revert to the league average of ~.300 since this variable is defensively dependent. However, his history suggests that his BABIP is actually higher than the league average. In other words, he's aberrant by nature.

Then I looked up his BHIP, which is more pitcher-dependent. I found that he was on the wrong side of this average, too, as illustrated by this table:

Year BHIP
2003 0.316
2004 0.273
2005 0.308
2006 0.314
2007 0.288

Here again, we see that his BHIP over the last two years has been consistently higher than the MLB average. Furthermore, we can also see that his current BHIP for 2007 is well below that average. After reading, that I had to assume that his hot start was actually even luckier than I had assumed. I figured he wasn't that good, but I tempered my pessimism by focusing on his extraordinary K/BB ratio.

And that's where I found something interesting:

Bonderman has walked exactly 5 batters in 39 innings of work this year. His K-rate has remained on par with his last two years. Thus t follows that his K/BB rate has skyrocketed from 2.56 in 2005 and 3.16 in 2006 to an astounding 6.60 here in 2007.

Putting all this together, I had to ask these questions:

Could Bonderman's recent WHIP troubles be a result of him throwing too many strikes?
Does he actually need to be throwing more balls in order to keep hitters off balance?


Can you explain the difference between BHIP and BABIP? Google isn't helping...
reynolds80
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 290
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby StlSluggers » Wed May 09, 2007 1:09 pm

I'll give 'er a go. There are others here who could give you a technically-superior explanation, but I'm pretty sure I can give you a quick synopsis.

BHIP% calculates the ratio of ground balls that end up as hits (generally, that would be singles). Without going too deeply into the theory, BHIP% says that a pitcher's basic skill set will result in X% of ground balls ending up as singles and that number will be different for each pitcher. There will be inevitable variations, but the theory is that pitchers will tend to regress towards their natural mean if nothing else changes. When analyzing BHIP% numbers, you can check variation within a pitcher's BHIP% calculation to see if there is an explanation for that pitcher's stats. If a pitcher has a particularly low WHIP as well as a BHIP% that is below his personal average, you can bet that his WHIP will probably be on the rise soon provided that no other factors (namely, infield defense) have changed dramatically.

BABIP is a little more broad. Instead of focusing on ground balls that end up as singles, it focuses on all balls hit into play. Home runs are excluded from this calculation as they are never technically in play. BABIP suggests that there is a natural mean for all pitchers when it comes to the number of balls that end up as hits after being placed in play. I don't have the long-term history of the calculation, but I do know that it has been right at .300 for quite a few years now. The theory is that few pitchers have the ability to vary wildly from this average for an extended duration (Smoltz is a good example of a great pitcher that falls into this average). You can use this stat in the same way that you use BHIP% by checking to see if a pitcher's current stats make sense given his BABIP ratio.

The easiest way to keep the two separate in your head is to change the name of BHIP% to singles average. ;-D
StlSluggers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 14716
Joined: 24 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Parking in the gov't bldg @ 7th and Pine. It's only $3.00 on game day!

Postby reynolds80 » Wed May 09, 2007 2:32 pm

StlSluggers wrote:I'll give 'er a go. There are others here who could give you a technically-superior explanation, but I'm pretty sure I can give you a quick synopsis.

BHIP% calculates the ratio of ground balls that end up as hits (generally, that would be singles). Without going too deeply into the theory, BHIP% says that a pitcher's basic skill set will result in X% of ground balls ending up as singles and that number will be different for each pitcher. There will be inevitable variations, but the theory is that pitchers will tend to regress towards their natural mean if nothing else changes. When analyzing BHIP% numbers, you can check variation within a pitcher's BHIP% calculation to see if there is an explanation for that pitcher's stats. If a pitcher has a particularly low WHIP as well as a BHIP% that is below his personal average, you can bet that his WHIP will probably be on the rise soon provided that no other factors (namely, infield defense) have changed dramatically.

BABIP is a little more broad. Instead of focusing on ground balls that end up as singles, it focuses on all balls hit into play. Home runs are excluded from this calculation as they are never technically in play. BABIP suggests that there is a natural mean for all pitchers when it comes to the number of balls that end up as hits after being placed in play. I don't have the long-term history of the calculation, but I do know that it has been right at .300 for quite a few years now. The theory is that few pitchers have the ability to vary wildly from this average for an extended duration (Smoltz is a good example of a great pitcher that falls into this average). You can use this stat in the same way that you use BHIP% by checking to see if a pitcher's current stats make sense given his BABIP ratio.

The easiest way to keep the two separate in your head is to change the name of BHIP% to singles average. ;-D


So BHIP% is grounders only? Why don't that call it GBHA or something I wonder? Just by reading "Balls Hit In Play", I wouldn't have guessed it was grounders only. Is this a very useful stat and do you know if anyone has these online?
reynolds80
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 290
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby StlSluggers » Wed May 09, 2007 2:33 pm

reynolds80 wrote:Is this a very useful stat and do you know if anyone has these online?

The only place I get it from is a pay service.

:-/
StlSluggers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 14716
Joined: 24 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Parking in the gov't bldg @ 7th and Pine. It's only $3.00 on game day!

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: fast dogs, threelions and 9 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact