Observations About Bonderman - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Observations About Bonderman

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Observations About Bonderman

Postby StlSluggers » Tue May 01, 2007 1:43 pm

After watching another mediocre (if not poor) performance from Bonderman last night, I hit the stat sites in search of data that make me feel better. I have to admit that I was surprised by what I found.

First, let's focus on Bonderman's problem his last two outings. He's given up 20 hits in just 11 innings while walking only 2 batters. My first assumption was that he was just getting unlucky, so I was expecting to see a high BABIP or BHIP rating supporting my assumption. I found the opposite.

Bonderman's BABIP over the last two games was only slightly over his average from the last two years, which was right around .330. Conventional wisdom for BABIP says that most pitchers will revert to the league average of ~.300 since this variable is defensively dependent. However, his history suggests that his BABIP is actually higher than the league average. In other words, he's aberrant by nature.

Then I looked up his BHIP, which is more pitcher-dependent. I found that he was on the wrong side of this average, too, as illustrated by this table:

Year BHIP
2003 0.316
2004 0.273
2005 0.308
2006 0.314
2007 0.288

Here again, we see that his BHIP over the last two years has been consistently higher than the MLB average. Furthermore, we can also see that his current BHIP for 2007 is well below that average. After reading, that I had to assume that his hot start was actually even luckier than I had assumed. I figured he wasn't that good, but I tempered my pessimism by focusing on his extraordinary K/BB ratio.

And that's where I found something interesting:

Bonderman has walked exactly 5 batters in 39 innings of work this year. His K-rate has remained on par with his last two years. Thus t follows that his K/BB rate has skyrocketed from 2.56 in 2005 and 3.16 in 2006 to an astounding 6.60 here in 2007.

Putting all this together, I had to ask these questions:

Could Bonderman's recent WHIP troubles be a result of him throwing too many strikes?
Does he actually need to be throwing more balls in order to keep hitters off balance?
StlSluggers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 14716
(Past Year: 10)
Joined: 24 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Parking in the gov't bldg @ 7th and Pine. It's only $3.00 on game day!

Postby J35J » Tue May 01, 2007 1:48 pm

People have been trying to figure out why Bonderman hasn't put it together for a few years now. There are always guys looking for excuses.....from what I see he just doesn't have the offspeed stuff to get a whole lot better. He throws hard, with a hard slider....everythings hard, everyone stays dialed up against him. He is what he is at this point, IMO. Good not great.
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10467
(Past Year: 421)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Coppermine » Tue May 01, 2007 1:57 pm

I've observed that Bonderman has a small head
If you're a battery, you're either working or you're dead....
Coppermine
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar

Posts: 8840
Joined: 6 Sep 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Pennsyltucky

Postby jlm53089 » Tue May 01, 2007 2:02 pm

i agree to an extent.
he should keep the hitter guessing.
but most hitters are swinging at 1-2 counts or 0-2 counts and geting hits because he is going for the strike out and that what causes the hit,
Image
jlm53089
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 3058
(Past Year: 3)
Joined: 6 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Tampa, praying for a new stadium.

Postby StlSluggers » Tue May 01, 2007 2:10 pm

Someone at work just told me that he's playing with a blister.

I hadn't read that yet.
StlSluggers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 14716
(Past Year: 10)
Joined: 24 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Parking in the gov't bldg @ 7th and Pine. It's only $3.00 on game day!

Postby cosmokid » Tue May 01, 2007 2:31 pm

He was having a good year with no wins to show for it until last night.

His ERA was in the high 2s without getting a decision.

He threw 9 innings v. Toronto for a no decision when Halladay got the 10 inning CGW.
cosmokid
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor


Posts: 57
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Yoda » Tue May 01, 2007 2:46 pm

J35J wrote:People have been trying to figure out why Bonderman hasn't put it together for a few years now. There are always guys looking for excuses.....from what I see he just doesn't have the offspeed stuff to get a whole lot better. He throws hard, with a hard slider....everythings hard, everyone stays dialed up against him. He is what he is at this point, IMO. Good not great.


This pretty much sums it up. I think people sometimes get too engrossed in potential and guys like Bonderman is a prime example. I think he will put up an enormous season or two in his future but it will be a guessing game as to when that will happen. He is not consistently good and too frequently melts down. He has exceptional stuff though and one of these seasons he will put it together. He will always be overrated because everyone will be hoping for that season. IMO.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21344
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...

Postby Dan Lambskin » Tue May 01, 2007 2:47 pm

StlSluggers wrote:Someone at work just told me that he's playing with a blister.

I hadn't read that yet.


i read that somewhere today, may have been the local paper. said he thinks it'll be fine for next start

i dont have the exact stats, but he seems to have a ton of trouble in the 1st inning, especially this year. after that he really seems to settle down

i see a lot of people dogging him to, he's only 24 and while he might not be a top 5 pitcher he's easily capable of 15 W's, 200+ K's and an ERA of 4.00+/-0.20. (yes i know last year was his lowest career ERA right at 4.00 but i'm allowing for some inprovement)

i do agree that he needs to develop some off-speed stuff though
Image
Dan Lambskin
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeLucky Ladders ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorTrivia Time Trial Monthly Winner
Posts: 10225
Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby StlSluggers » Tue May 01, 2007 2:51 pm

Dan Lambskin wrote:i dont have the exact stats, but he seems to have a ton of trouble in the 1st inning, especially this year. after that he really seems to settle down

You are right...

<pre>By Inning AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Inning 1 33 11 14 3 0 2 10 1 0 3 3 0 .424 .441 .697 1.138
Inning 1-3 82 15 27 4 0 2 14 2 1 14 4 0 .329 .353 .451 .804
Inning 4-6 61 2 11 5 0 1 2 3 0 16 0 0 .180 .219 .311 .530
Inning 7-9 15 1 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 .200 .200 .267 .467</pre>
StlSluggers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 14716
(Past Year: 10)
Joined: 24 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Parking in the gov't bldg @ 7th and Pine. It's only $3.00 on game day!

Postby PlayingWithFire » Tue May 01, 2007 3:35 pm

I think he'll be fine, might just be the blister the last game or 2. I still think what I thought would happen in the preseason would end up happening, that he'll improve slightly again for a couple years. But I think he'll break down rather early in his career due to all the innings he's thrown.


sidenote: and to whoever said that the reverse W throwing motion always cause injury ala Mark Prior and Francisco Liriano, Bonderman has been healthy almost his whole career with that motion.
Are you interested in joining a 28 teams dynasty league? If so, PM me.
PlayingWithFire
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe WriterLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 13262
Joined: 7 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Manhattan, KS

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Saturday, Jul. 26
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Toronto at NY Yankees
(1:05 pm)
St. Louis at Chi Cubs
(4:05 pm)
Washington at Cincinnati
(4:05 pm)
Baltimore at Seattle
(4:10 pm)
Arizona at Philadelphia
(7:05 pm)
Boston at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Chi White Sox at Minnesota
(7:10 pm)
NY Mets at Milwaukee
(7:10 pm)
Cleveland at Kansas City
(7:10 pm)
Miami at Houston
(7:10 pm)
San Diego at Atlanta
(7:10 pm)
Oakland at Texas
(8:05 pm)
Pittsburgh at Colorado
(8:10 pm)
Detroit at LA Angels
(9:05 pm)
LA Dodgers at San Francisco
(9:05 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact