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Postby pokerplaya » Tue May 01, 2007 1:26 pm

Art Vandelay wrote:I don't think he'll maintain the .109 BAA for a full season either, I just don't think we can attribute it all to luck. He's had some control issues, but batters simply aren't making good contact off of him, and haven't been all season.


I think this is important...of course he has been luck to have a .109 BAA, but what Art is saying is that he has still been absolutely dominant. He may be getting more outs than he should be, but the fact of the matter is not too many hitters are getting good swings on him.
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Postby J35J » Tue May 01, 2007 1:32 pm

Art Vandelay wrote:I don't think he'll maintain the .109 BAA for a full season either, I just don't think we can attribute it all to luck. He's had some control issues, but batters simply aren't making good contact off of him, and haven't been all season.


This is what I'm saying.

He has 272 career MLB innings under his belt with a .198BAA during that time......theres more to it than luck. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he isn't lucky, i'm saying everyone is to a certain extent. Just blowing him off to being just "very very lucky" is a slap in the face, IMO.
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Postby Yoda » Tue May 01, 2007 1:38 pm

The most concerning thing to me however, is not the BAA but the lack of Ks. If his K rate was high as his BAA is low then I wouldn't dismiss his performance as being 'lucky'. But the lack of Ks combined with BBs and low H rate leads me to believe that his numbers will only get worse from here. Unless he starts K'ing more guys.
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Postby J35J » Tue May 01, 2007 1:42 pm

Yoda wrote:The most concerning thing to me however, is not the BAA but the lack of Ks. If his K rate was high as his BAA is low then I wouldn't dismiss his performance as being 'lucky'. But the lack of Ks combined with BBs and low H rate leads me to believe that his numbers will only get worse from here. Unless he starts K'ing more guys.


Now you're really stepping out on a limb here..... ;-7

You mean to tell me he won't finish the year at this level? :-?
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Postby Yoda » Tue May 01, 2007 1:58 pm

J35J wrote:
Yoda wrote:The most concerning thing to me however, is not the BAA but the lack of Ks. If his K rate was high as his BAA is low then I wouldn't dismiss his performance as being 'lucky'. But the lack of Ks combined with BBs and low H rate leads me to believe that his numbers will only get worse from here. Unless he starts K'ing more guys.


Now you're really stepping out on a limb here..... ;-7

You mean to tell me he won't finish the year at this level? :-?


Well if he starts K'ing more guys then I think he will be elite.
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Postby Ender » Tue May 01, 2007 3:49 pm

I just think you are pointing to the wrong thing when you call him filthy. K rate and BB rate are whats going to sustain filthy for him, not his BABIP which isn't going to be sustainable, he might keep it better than league average but its so far off the norm that there is no way it comes anywhere close to being sustainable.
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Postby J35J » Tue May 01, 2007 4:08 pm

Ender wrote:I just think you are pointing to the wrong thing when you call him filthy. K rate and BB rate are whats going to sustain filthy for him, not his BABIP which isn't going to be sustainable, he might keep it better than league average but its so far off the norm that there is no way it comes anywhere close to being sustainable.



blah, blah, blah....maybe this should have been in the cheering and venting forum. I didn't intend to disect his season here necessarily or why he is or isn't filthy. I woulda said a little more in my original post if I wanted to do that.

Anyway, he has been dominate or filthy or whatever else you want to say and I wanted to give him his props, thats all.
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Postby Art Vandelay » Tue May 01, 2007 4:20 pm

Yeah, maybe we're just working with different definitions of "filthy," but there's no way you can watch his complete game against Arizona (or any of his last four starts for that matter) and not say he's filthy. Sure, his K numbers aren't great, and he's walking a lot, but he is making major league hitters look like confused, incompetent fools at the plate. I'm not saying he's the second coming of Pedro in his prime, but to mention him in the same breath as guys like Looper, Hendrickson, and Ortiz is crazy.
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Postby Ender » Thu May 03, 2007 11:53 pm

J35J wrote:
Ender wrote:I just think you are pointing to the wrong thing when you call him filthy. K rate and BB rate are whats going to sustain filthy for him, not his BABIP which isn't going to be sustainable, he might keep it better than league average but its so far off the norm that there is no way it comes anywhere close to being sustainable.



blah, blah, blah....maybe this should have been in the cheering and venting forum. I didn't intend to disect his season here necessarily or why he is or isn't filthy. I woulda said a little more in my original post if I wanted to do that.

Anyway, he has been dominate or filthy or whatever else you want to say and I wanted to give him his props, thats all.


he pitched much the same way tonight as the rest of the year and it got him 7 ER's, when you walk too many and don't K enough you are playing with fire. Getting lucky game after game doesnt' change it, eventually you get burned.
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Postby Kingctb27 » Fri May 04, 2007 1:03 am

Time to update the sig...
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