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Re: Filthy.....

Postby J35J » Tue May 01, 2007 11:11 am

Ender wrote:
J35J wrote:Is Matt Cain absolutely unhittable or what? He still walks a touch to many batters right now but when you're sporting a .109 BAA it doesn't really matter much. I wish I could see him pitch more on TV...... I really need to get that mlb all access thing next year!


yes, it means he's been very very lucky with balls hit right at people.


I'm thinking you're selling him a little short. Has he been lucky sure, but being successful in anything you do has some sort of luck involved. 12 hits in 35IP has a little more than luck being involved! ;-D
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Re: Filthy.....

Postby Ender » Tue May 01, 2007 11:21 am

J35J wrote:
Ender wrote:
J35J wrote:Is Matt Cain absolutely unhittable or what? He still walks a touch to many batters right now but when you're sporting a .109 BAA it doesn't really matter much. I wish I could see him pitch more on TV...... I really need to get that mlb all access thing next year!


yes, it means he's been very very lucky with balls hit right at people.


I'm thinking you're selling him a little short. Has he been lucky sure, but being successful in anything you do has some sort of luck involved. 12 hits in 35IP has a little more than luck being involved! ;-D


I like Matt Cain and I think he'll be a very good pitcher, but he's been extremely lucky this year is all I'm saying, as lucky as any of the Looper, Hendrickson, Ortiz types. He could easily have a 3+ ERA having pitched the way he has but he's just had a lot of luck.
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Postby acsguitar » Tue May 01, 2007 11:23 am

knapplc wrote:
acsguitar wrote:His stuff is really nasty. I saw him pitch from the 7th row in Coors field a few weeks ago.

He's very very calm and collected on the mound. It looks like he doesn't even know there is anyone else on the field.

He kept the rox's at bay all game but the bullpen blew it.



Good to see you back, ACS. ;-D


Thanks!

I don't think Cain is lucky at all. The guy has talent. He is very very good. He seems to keep the ball down well and changes speed.
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Postby Yoda » Tue May 01, 2007 11:24 am

acsguitar wrote:
knapplc wrote:
acsguitar wrote:His stuff is really nasty. I saw him pitch from the 7th row in Coors field a few weeks ago.

He's very very calm and collected on the mound. It looks like he doesn't even know there is anyone else on the field.

He kept the rox's at bay all game but the bullpen blew it.



Good to see you back, ACS. ;-D


Thanks!

I don't think Cain is lucky at all. The guy has talent. He is very very good. He seems to keep the ball down well and changes speed.


You won't find a bigger supporter of Cain than me but he has been very lucky this year.
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Postby Oatsdad » Tue May 01, 2007 12:09 pm

acsguitar wrote:His stuff is really nasty. I saw him pitch from the 7th row in Coors field a few weeks ago.


He MUST be good if he didn't even need to pitch off the mound! :-D
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Postby Art Vandelay » Tue May 01, 2007 12:14 pm

Have you guys that are saying he's been getting lucky actually been watching him pitch this year, or are you just looking at his numbers and assuming he's getting lucky? If anything, I'd say he's getting unlucky this year because the pen can't hold a lead for him. His only win so far was his complete game. The .109 BAA against because people are hitting the ball hard, but to the wrong place, it's because batters aren't making good contact. Lots of bloops, dribblers, guys getting handcuffed, etc. He has been absolutely dominant for much of the time that he's been on the mound this year.
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Postby Field » Tue May 01, 2007 12:45 pm

I think the guy is a stud, but obviously the .109BAA against is something he cannot maintain. On ESPN, his DIPS ERA is 4.49 compared to his 1.54 actual ERA. The formula is not perfect, but its another thing to look at when analyzing pitchers. And, his DIP% is 2.91, the highest % of any full time starter.

I would like to see some more Ks and fewer balls in play.
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Postby Ender » Tue May 01, 2007 12:45 pm

Art Vandelay wrote:Have you guys that are saying he's been getting lucky actually been watching him pitch this year, or are you just looking at his numbers and assuming he's getting lucky? If anything, I'd say he's getting unlucky this year because the pen can't hold a lead for him. His only win so far was his complete game. The .109 BAA against because people are hitting the ball hard, but to the wrong place, it's because batters aren't making good contact. Lots of bloops, dribblers, guys getting handcuffed, etc. He has been absolutely dominant for much of the time that he's been on the mound this year.


yes I've watched and he's getting extremely lucky. There have been many very dominant pitchers in baseball and not a one of them has done anything close to a .109 BAA. Those bloops, dribblers and guys getting hadcuffed still turn into hits way more than he is giving up. He's stranded almost every runner that has gotten on. Simple truth is if he pitches exactly like this in may he'll have an ERA over 3 and it could be close to 4.

That being said I think he'll pitch better next month, the control will get better.
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Postby Yoda » Tue May 01, 2007 12:57 pm

Art Vandelay wrote:Have you guys that are saying he's been getting lucky actually been watching him pitch this year, or are you just looking at his numbers and assuming he's getting lucky? If anything, I'd say he's getting unlucky this year because the pen can't hold a lead for him. His only win so far was his complete game. The .109 BAA against because people are hitting the ball hard, but to the wrong place, it's because batters aren't making good contact. Lots of bloops, dribblers, guys getting handcuffed, etc. He has been absolutely dominant for much of the time that he's been on the mound this year.


I've seen plenty of starts this season. He will have a lower BAA due to the fact that he is just plain good but there is no way he can sustain a .109 BAA over an entire season. I don't think it is possible.
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Postby Art Vandelay » Tue May 01, 2007 1:23 pm

I don't think he'll maintain the .109 BAA for a full season either, I just don't think we can attribute it all to luck. He's had some control issues, but batters simply aren't making good contact off of him, and haven't been all season.
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