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Postby bceagles04 » Sat May 05, 2007 1:50 am

astav28 wrote:
bceagles04 wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:he was left in too long last night, and it wasnt the first time. the same thing happened back on April 22 to Houston when he had a shutout through 8 and came back out for the 9th.


Exactly my point. If you factor out those 2 innings, and his awful 1st inning in the 1st game of the year...he has a pretty solid line!


ya and if you factor out sidney ponsons 3-7th innings, and his 2nd inning from day games, and his 1st inning on the road.....he has a pretty solid line too!


I'm talking about 2 occurances in which the manager left him in too long. That is not his fault at all, and he should have been out of the game and on the bench. Therefore those runs should never have been earned.
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Postby YardBirds » Sat May 05, 2007 4:30 am

I'm not going to argue either way, but I do think Bush is the better pure pitcher. Have you looked at the infield/outfield of both teams?

San Fran:
Rich Aurilia, Ray Durham, Pedro Feliz, Omar Vizquel, Barry Bonds, Dave Roberts, Randy Winn.

All grizzled vets, who know how to play. They play solid, but not spectactular defense.

Milwaukee:
Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, JJ Hardy, Craig Counsell, Corey Hart, Bill Hall, Geoff Jenkins.

A team chock full of future stars, but very young. You could probably argue they have better range then the Old men from San Fran, but they probably make alot more mistakes and/or are out of position more.

I think Bush is hurt more by his young team mixed with a little bad luck as he gets hits a little more then the other Milwaukee starters.

Plus I would add that Bush plays in a more hitter friendly division with Cincy, Chitown and Houston. Whereas San Fran plays in more pitcher friendly parks, Colorado hasn't been the launching pad of old, and Zona is pretty hitter friendly... but Petco? Chavez?

All that said, Matt Cain is performing better earlier, but by the end of the season I suspect their stats will be closer then most expect.
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Postby JoshDJays » Sat May 05, 2007 8:10 am

This is probably a dumb question but which has more value... Dave Bush or using the slot for spot starters?
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Postby stumpak » Sat May 05, 2007 8:24 am

JoshDJays wrote:This is probably a dumb question but which has more value... Dave Bush or using the slot for spot starters?


Unless you play in a very shallow league and you can nab decent SPs to spot against the Nationals and other favorable match-ups, the answer is that you are better off with Bush.
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Postby Ender » Sat May 05, 2007 8:26 am

These stats are useful, don't get me wrong, but they aren't the sole thing to look at. If a guy's sabermetric stats are great, but his ERA WHIP Wins and K totals suck, then he's not good for fantasy. That's the bottom line. And I know I will be disagreed with, but these sabermetric stats aren't as significant as people say they are.


Because the sabermetric stats are more predictive than the real stats, thats the entire point. If Bush and Cain both pitch exactly the same as they have on the year for the rest of the year Bush will have a better ERA and WHIP. Things that are mostly out of the pitchers control are why their stats look so different. Cain has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball, Bush one of the unluckiest. Their might be a short term reasno for the 'luck' but history has shown its not sustainable and eventually their BABIP and LOB% will even out.

Bush has a better K rate, better BB rate, better GB rate and those are the three things pitchers have the most control over. If you are looking at a pitchers ERA and WHIP to make your decisions in May you are never going to be as good at fantasy baseball as you could be because those stats are almost meaningless over a 40 IP sample.

Thats not to say I'd trade Cain for Bush, I do expect Cain to get his BB/9 under control and start to get more K/9 because of previous years stats, Bush is actually pitching better than last year it just hasn't shown up in his fantasy stats yet.
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Postby Yoda » Sat May 05, 2007 10:32 am

I think the main problem with Bush is that he is almost always around the plate and his stuff is good but not great so he gets hit a lot. Add in a subpar defense behind him, I think his overall numbers will almost always look worse than how he pitches.
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Postby Ender » Sat May 05, 2007 10:51 am

They will somewhat, he gives up a high SLG against and he hits a lot of batters which are things that FIP doesn't do a great job of working with. His ERA is always going to be a tad high for his WHIP.
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Postby Yoda » Sat May 05, 2007 10:53 am

Ender wrote:They will somewhat, he gives up a high SLG against and he hits a lot of batters which are things that FIP doesn't do a great job of working with. His ERA is always going to be a tad high for his WHIP.


Hmmm didn't realize that he hits a lot of guys... Interesting.
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Postby sportsaddict » Sat May 05, 2007 3:25 pm

Ender wrote:
These stats are useful, don't get me wrong, but they aren't the sole thing to look at. If a guy's sabermetric stats are great, but his ERA WHIP Wins and K totals suck, then he's not good for fantasy. That's the bottom line. And I know I will be disagreed with, but these sabermetric stats aren't as significant as people say they are.


Because the sabermetric stats are more predictive than the real stats, thats the entire point. If Bush and Cain both pitch exactly the same as they have on the year for the rest of the year Bush will have a better ERA and WHIP. Things that are mostly out of the pitchers control are why their stats look so different. Cain has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball, Bush one of the unluckiest. Their might be a short term reasno for the 'luck' but history has shown its not sustainable and eventually their BABIP and LOB% will even out.

Bush has a better K rate, better BB rate, better GB rate and those are the three things pitchers have the most control over. If you are looking at a pitchers ERA and WHIP to make your decisions in May you are never going to be as good at fantasy baseball as you could be because those stats are almost meaningless over a 40 IP sample.

Thats not to say I'd trade Cain for Bush, I do expect Cain to get his BB/9 under control and start to get more K/9 because of previous years stats, Bush is actually pitching better than last year it just hasn't shown up in his fantasy stats yet.


I see what you're saying. I think people get too wrapped in sabermetrics though at times, I personally don't use them often but they can be good predictors of performance.
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