Buy Low: Dave Bush - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Buy Low: Dave Bush

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby Ender » Fri May 04, 2007 11:59 am

His FIP is 3.42, his xFIP is 3.27. His K rate is 7.8 compared to a 1.5 BB rate. You are basing all this on an inflated hit rate against and a strand rate that is really low. This is the perfect buy low guy as he's pitched better than guys like Matt Cain has on the year, he's just had the opposite type of luck.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby BillyHallDisciple » Fri May 04, 2007 12:18 pm

Sabermetrics, Schmabermetrics. A moon shot is a moon shot.
BillyHallDisciple
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 2850
Joined: 1 Aug 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby dewey finn » Fri May 04, 2007 12:23 pm

heh, some douche just dropped him this morning
dewey finn
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 513
Joined: 24 Sep 2005
Home Cafe: Basketball

Postby cordscords » Fri May 04, 2007 12:24 pm

0.96 HR/9 isnt that bad.
cordscords
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 4346
(Past Year: 23)
Joined: 23 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby BillyHallDisciple » Fri May 04, 2007 12:26 pm

Ender, I appreciate the way you break it down and sometimes going inside the numbers is fine, but to say he's pitched better than guys like Matt Cain this year? Come on man, that is ludicrous. Bush is an ok pitcher but let's not get carried away with strand rates and FIP's (speaking of which, what does that mean, Flyball-per-Innings-Pitched ratio?). Bush is a lot closer to pitch-or-ditch than he is to Matt Cain.

Bush is like Brad Radke with a few more K's. He clearly hasn't done enough as a fantasy starter to earn anyone's trust. Until he starts showing more consistency, that's just the way it is. He's got a lot of apologists out there who cite this stat and that stat, but you can't cover up mediocrity with pure numbers.
BillyHallDisciple
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 2850
Joined: 1 Aug 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby alchemy » Fri May 04, 2007 12:28 pm

Cast one vote here for the guy who said he's been left in too long.

Dave Bush's confidence has been hurt early this year. Combination of bad luck, bad fielding and the odd implosion inning. Keep his pitch count reasonably low (so that he escapes games with good numbers) and let him build up his confidence.

Two games in his last three, his numbers were great before he fell apart late.
alchemy
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 174
Joined: 15 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Ender » Fri May 04, 2007 12:33 pm

Ender, I appreciate the way you break it down and sometimes going inside the numbers is fine, but to say he's pitched better than guys like Matt Cain this year? Come on man, that is ludicrous. Bush is an ok pitcher but let's not get carried away with strand rates and FIP's (speaking of which, what does that mean, Flyball-per-Innings-Pitched ratio?). Bush is a lot closer to pitch-or-ditch than he is to Matt Cain.



True, if Cain continues to walk 5.4 guys per 9 IP he'll be in the minors so Bush is not the same as him~

FIP is fielding independent pitching. Its the ERA based on what the pitcher did rather than on ER's.

In all seriousness I'd rather own Cain than Bush, but if both of them keep the K/BB/HR rates they have displayed this year Bush will be the better guy. He's King more, getting more ground balls and BBing less and thats the real key to success as a pitcher.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby bceagles04 » Fri May 04, 2007 2:54 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:he was left in too long last night, and it wasnt the first time. the same thing happened back on April 22 to Houston when he had a shutout through 8 and came back out for the 9th.


Exactly my point. If you factor out those 2 innings, and his awful 1st inning in the 1st game of the year...he has a pretty solid line!
Image
bceagles04
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3089
Joined: 8 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: at my computer

Postby astav28 » Sat May 05, 2007 12:36 am

bceagles04 wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:he was left in too long last night, and it wasnt the first time. the same thing happened back on April 22 to Houston when he had a shutout through 8 and came back out for the 9th.


Exactly my point. If you factor out those 2 innings, and his awful 1st inning in the 1st game of the year...he has a pretty solid line!


ya and if you factor out sidney ponsons 3-7th innings, and his 2nd inning from day games, and his 1st inning on the road.....he has a pretty solid line too!
astav28
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 330
Joined: 31 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby sportsaddict » Sat May 05, 2007 12:53 am

astav28 wrote:
bceagles04 wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:he was left in too long last night, and it wasnt the first time. the same thing happened back on April 22 to Houston when he had a shutout through 8 and came back out for the 9th.


Exactly my point. If you factor out those 2 innings, and his awful 1st inning in the 1st game of the year...he has a pretty solid line!


ya and if you factor out sidney ponsons 3-7th innings, and his 2nd inning from day games, and his 1st inning on the road.....he has a pretty solid line too!


:-b

Funny that I kind of agree with that even if it is kind of a condescending statement. Everyone keeps talking about Bush and these obscure stats and how good they are, so automatically everyone assumes it's just bad luck. I'm not a sabermetrics guy, but a lot of people on here are. Someone claimed Bush is pitching better than Matt Cain? Just because Bush's LIMA rate or whatever the heck everyone keeps talking about is better than Cain's, that doesn't mean he's a better pitcher. These stats are useful, don't get me wrong, but they aren't the sole thing to look at. If a guy's sabermetric stats are great, but his ERA WHIP Wins and K totals suck, then he's not good for fantasy. That's the bottom line. And I know I will be disagreed with, but these sabermetric stats aren't as significant as people say they are.
"Oh, that Lankford and McGee, the trio of 'em. They're a one-man wrecking crew."

-Mike Shannon
sportsaddict
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1961
Joined: 2 Aug 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The good old Midwest

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: threelions, unioreimi and 11 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact