His FIP is 3.42, his xFIP is 3.27. His K rate is 7.8 compared to a 1.5 BB rate. You are basing all this on an inflated hit rate against and a strand rate that is really low. This is the perfect buy low guy as he's pitched better than guys like Matt Cain has on the year, he's just had the opposite type of luck.
Ender, I appreciate the way you break it down and sometimes going inside the numbers is fine, but to say he's pitched better than guys like Matt Cain this year? Come on man, that is ludicrous. Bush is an ok pitcher but let's not get carried away with strand rates and FIP's (speaking of which, what does that mean, Flyball-per-Innings-Pitched ratio?). Bush is a lot closer to pitch-or-ditch than he is to Matt Cain.
Bush is like Brad Radke with a few more K's. He clearly hasn't done enough as a fantasy starter to earn anyone's trust. Until he starts showing more consistency, that's just the way it is. He's got a lot of apologists out there who cite this stat and that stat, but you can't cover up mediocrity with pure numbers.
Cast one vote here for the guy who said he's been left in too long.
Dave Bush's confidence has been hurt early this year. Combination of bad luck, bad fielding and the odd implosion inning. Keep his pitch count reasonably low (so that he escapes games with good numbers) and let him build up his confidence.
Two games in his last three, his numbers were great before he fell apart late.
Ender, I appreciate the way you break it down and sometimes going inside the numbers is fine, but to say he's pitched better than guys like Matt Cain this year? Come on man, that is ludicrous. Bush is an ok pitcher but let's not get carried away with strand rates and FIP's (speaking of which, what does that mean, Flyball-per-Innings-Pitched ratio?). Bush is a lot closer to pitch-or-ditch than he is to Matt Cain.
True, if Cain continues to walk 5.4 guys per 9 IP he'll be in the minors so Bush is not the same as him~
FIP is fielding independent pitching. Its the ERA based on what the pitcher did rather than on ER's.
In all seriousness I'd rather own Cain than Bush, but if both of them keep the K/BB/HR rates they have displayed this year Bush will be the better guy. He's King more, getting more ground balls and BBing less and thats the real key to success as a pitcher.
SpecialFNK wrote:he was left in too long last night, and it wasnt the first time. the same thing happened back on April 22 to Houston when he had a shutout through 8 and came back out for the 9th.
Exactly my point. If you factor out those 2 innings, and his awful 1st inning in the 1st game of the year...he has a pretty solid line!
SpecialFNK wrote:he was left in too long last night, and it wasnt the first time. the same thing happened back on April 22 to Houston when he had a shutout through 8 and came back out for the 9th.
Exactly my point. If you factor out those 2 innings, and his awful 1st inning in the 1st game of the year...he has a pretty solid line!
ya and if you factor out sidney ponsons 3-7th innings, and his 2nd inning from day games, and his 1st inning on the road.....he has a pretty solid line too!
SpecialFNK wrote:he was left in too long last night, and it wasnt the first time. the same thing happened back on April 22 to Houston when he had a shutout through 8 and came back out for the 9th.
Exactly my point. If you factor out those 2 innings, and his awful 1st inning in the 1st game of the year...he has a pretty solid line!
ya and if you factor out sidney ponsons 3-7th innings, and his 2nd inning from day games, and his 1st inning on the road.....he has a pretty solid line too!
Funny that I kind of agree with that even if it is kind of a condescending statement. Everyone keeps talking about Bush and these obscure stats and how good they are, so automatically everyone assumes it's just bad luck. I'm not a sabermetrics guy, but a lot of people on here are. Someone claimed Bush is pitching better than Matt Cain? Just because Bush's LIMA rate or whatever the heck everyone keeps talking about is better than Cain's, that doesn't mean he's a better pitcher. These stats are useful, don't get me wrong, but they aren't the sole thing to look at. If a guy's sabermetric stats are great, but his ERA WHIP Wins and K totals suck, then he's not good for fantasy. That's the bottom line. And I know I will be disagreed with, but these sabermetric stats aren't as significant as people say they are.
"Oh, that Lankford and McGee, the trio of 'em. They're a one-man wrecking crew."
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by Ender » Fri May 04, 2007 11:59 am 
