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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Sun Apr 29, 2007 5:32 pm

RC wrote:
YardBirds wrote:Bush
Olsen



Meche


Surprised about that. I'm going to do a search, but I'd be curious to hear what the Cafe thinks of Meche...


He's better than Olsen and about as good as Bush when 100% healthy, which isn't often. A good FA add, but not a good guy to trade good value for and/or rely on.
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Postby activechamp2006 » Sun Apr 29, 2007 5:36 pm

RC wrote:Where does Bush rank:

Bush
Meche
Olsen


In my opinion I like Olsen the best of these three. Not only because of the ballpark he pitches in but I love his strikeout rate. Plus Olsen always seems to have a much LOWER BAA then Bush does, even when they have a similar ERA. (not to mention Olsens 5 years younger) Bush is 28 years old Olsens 24. There is much more time for Olsen to improve ;-D

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Postby sportsaddict » Sun Apr 29, 2007 5:45 pm

As a Bush owner, I hope everyone is right about him. I think he'll be a solid starter this season, but I think we are going a bit overboard with these peripheral stats and these sabermetrics. I think maybe instead of blaming all of Bush's poor outings on bad luck, we should just admit that he pitched like crap. He's extremely inconsistent- he's good when he's on, and other times he gets shelled. We are making too many excuses for Bush because his k/9 or bb/9 or whatever looks good. This year, he's had some very good starts, and he's also not gotten it done in other starts. Not because of bad luck- because he's inconsistent. Once he gets some consistency I think we'll see him blossom.
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Postby RC » Sun Apr 29, 2007 5:49 pm

activechamp2006 wrote:
RC wrote:Where does Bush rank:

Bush
Meche
Olsen


In my opinion I like Olsen the best of these three. Not only because of the ballpark he pitches in but I love his strikeout rate. Plus Olsen always seems to have a much LOWER BAA then Bush does, even when they have a similar ERA. (not to mention Olsens 5 years younger) Bush is 28 years old Olsens 24. There is much more time for Olsen to improve ;-D

Olsen
Bush
Meche


I'd take Olsen long term as well, but I was asking more for re-draft leagues...
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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Sun Apr 29, 2007 5:50 pm

activechamp2006 wrote:
RC wrote:Where does Bush rank:

Bush
Meche
Olsen


In my opinion I like Olsen the best of these three. Not only because of the ballpark he pitches in but I love his strikeout rate. Plus Olsen always seems to have a much LOWER BAA then Bush does, even when they have a similar ERA. (not to mention Olsens 5 years younger) Bush is 28 years old Olsens 24. There is much more time for Olsen to improve ;-D

Olsen
Bush
Meche


BAA isn't really a good stat to base so much off of. Note Bush's BABIP, .363, should drop along with his ERA, while Olsen's .303 gives more validity to his 6.23 ERA than Bush's. Bush also has the better K and walk rates, and is the magical age of 27. Olsen has a superior career K rate, but his K/BB needs to improve before he is on the level of Bush. I think it's pretty clear Bush is the better choice in a redraft.
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Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Sun Apr 29, 2007 6:12 pm

sportsaddict wrote:As a Bush owner, I hope everyone is right about him. I think he'll be a solid starter this season, but I think we are going a bit overboard with these peripheral stats and these sabermetrics. I think maybe instead of blaming all of Bush's poor outings on bad luck, we should just admit that he pitched like crap. He's extremely inconsistent- he's good when he's on, and other times he gets shelled. We are making too many excuses for Bush because his k/9 or bb/9 or whatever looks good. This year, he's had some very good starts, and he's also not gotten it done in other starts. Not because of bad luck- because he's inconsistent. Once he gets some consistency I think we'll see him blossom.


Well, rather than saying he's been unlucky, let me put it differently. All these peripheral stats that I've been mentioning are a much better predictor of how he'll pitch in the future than his current ERA and WHIP are.

I haven't seen him pitch, so I can't attest anecdotally to whether I've seen pop-ups fall in for hits or groundballs find holes. But I can tell you that his GB/FB/LD percentages don't match up with his BABIP, which indicates that over a long period of time, his batting average against on balls in play will begin to reflect how well batters are actually hitting him, and his ERA and WHIP will go down as a result.
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Postby sportsaddict » Sun Apr 29, 2007 6:13 pm

JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:
sportsaddict wrote:As a Bush owner, I hope everyone is right about him. I think he'll be a solid starter this season, but I think we are going a bit overboard with these peripheral stats and these sabermetrics. I think maybe instead of blaming all of Bush's poor outings on bad luck, we should just admit that he pitched like crap. He's extremely inconsistent- he's good when he's on, and other times he gets shelled. We are making too many excuses for Bush because his k/9 or bb/9 or whatever looks good. This year, he's had some very good starts, and he's also not gotten it done in other starts. Not because of bad luck- because he's inconsistent. Once he gets some consistency I think we'll see him blossom.


Well, rather than saying he's been unlucky, let me put it differently. All these peripheral stats that I've been mentioning are a much better predictor of how he'll pitch in the future than his current ERA and WHIP are.

I haven't seen him pitch, so I can't attest anecdotally to whether I've seen pop-ups fall in for hits or groundballs find holes. But I can tell you that his GB/FB/LD percentages don't match up with his BABIP, which indicates that over a long period of time, his batting average against on balls in play will begin to reflect how well batters are actually hitting him, and his ERA and WHIP will go down as a result.


I see what you mean, and that does make sense. I think maybe the reason his ERA and WHIP are higher than they seemingly should be is a product of a bad defense behind him? Just a thought...
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Postby jfg » Sun Apr 29, 2007 8:57 pm

I see what you mean, and that does make sense. I think maybe the reason his ERA and WHIP are higher than they seemingly should be is a product of a bad defense behind him? Just a thought...


I'd say so. It doesn't help.

I also think he was a little overrated coming into this season. A lot his numbers right now are lower than last year, but if we expect last years numbers they weren't amazing. A lot of people were treating him like a staff ace when he was more of a guy who could be drafted like a backup and get you #3 starter stats. He was only excellent in one of the LIMA categories and a little above average in the other two. Yet, because of that excellence in K/BB he was dubbed super sleeper. I had him ranked #26 SP going into the season which is great for where you could get him, but I think a lot of people thought they were getting an ace really low. So, I think you only buy low if you can actually buy low. Right now I don't think I'd trade another #3 starter for him. But I'd trade a bench pitcher.
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Postby MissingOakley » Sun Apr 29, 2007 9:12 pm

I am not a statistically gifted fantasy baseball person. But is it at all possible that Bush is just somehow a worse pitcher than the usual peripheral stats used would indicate? I only ask because I feel like I read the same articles about him last year -- he was due for an imminent breakout "any day now" because his ERA/WHIP and HR-allowed were worse than the stats suggested -- and his numbers still ended up on the mediocre side.

But honestly I have no idea. Never seen him pitch on TV. Maybe it's the defense behind him, as someone suggested? Maybe he has inexplicable mental lapses that lead him to suddenly give up HR? Is there something besides the standard peripheral numbers used to suggest he's about to improve?
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Postby jake_harv88 » Sun Apr 29, 2007 9:20 pm

jfg wrote:
I see what you mean, and that does make sense. I think maybe the reason his ERA and WHIP are higher than they seemingly should be is a product of a bad defense behind him? Just a thought...


I'd say so. It doesn't help.

I also think he was a little overrated coming into this season. A lot his numbers right now are lower than last year, but if we expect last years numbers they weren't amazing. A lot of people were treating him like a staff ace when he was more of a guy who could be drafted like a backup and get you #3 starter stats. He was only excellent in one of the LIMA categories and a little above average in the other two. Yet, because of that excellence in K/BB he was dubbed super sleeper. I had him ranked #26 SP going into the season which is great for where you could get him, but I think a lot of people thought they were getting an ace really low. So, I think you only buy low if you can actually buy low. Right now I don't think I'd trade another #3 starter for him. But I'd trade a bench pitcher.




Yeah I agree here, I think some people expected him to be a #1 or #2 starter coming into the year, when really he is a solid #3 solid (probably a little more valuable in k/9 leagues). What does buying low mean on this guy? Someone earlier posted buehrle for bush was buying low, but i dont really think so. i think Bush will perform better from here on out and again will be a very good 3 starter. Good buy low here but make sure you are actually buying low...
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