Buy Low: Dave Bush

[JustAnotherYanksFan]

I realize that this time of year, there are going to be lots of guys with high pre-season expectations who are performing badly. However, that doesn't mean that all of those guys are buy-low candidates. Some of them (Andruw Jones, Pujols, Soriano, etc.) are proven enough that in most leagues, owners aren't going to let them go for less than what they're worth. With a lot of other guys, the concern is the opposite - what if they really are just that bad? Plenty of guys don't live up to pre-season expectations, so who's to say that the guys playing poorly in April aren't just on their way to flopping over the course of the whole season?

So I'd like to highlight one guy who:
a) isn't such a proven player that people won't sell him for less than he's worth,
b) has been bad enough that he can be had for less than his pre-season values in many leagues, and
c) will very likely turn things around.

Dave Bush's K/9 is right where it was last year. His BB/9 and K/BB are actually better than they were last year. His HR/9 is also much lower than it was last year, and his percentage of GB/FB/LD allowed are all essentially identical to what they were last year.

So why does he have an ERA of 6.23 and a WHIP of 1.45? His BABIP against is a ridiculous .406 (league average is around .300), and he has a strand rate of about 55% (league average is just above 70%). (I estimated his strand rate based on the graph on FanGraphs.)

It's possible that his ERA will always be a bit higher than his K, BB, and HR would predict for a variety of possible reasons. I haven't seen him pitch much, but it's possible that he's worse when pitching from the stretch or something like that. (That could explain why his ERA seemed unusually high last year given his peripherals, since his strand rate last year was significantly below league average. However, I'm more inclined to believe that he just got unlucky last year, since his strand rates in '04 and '05 were right in line with the league average.) However, even if you don't think he'll end up breaking out like a lot of people predicted going into this year, there's almost no question that he's going to improve considerably from what you're seeing right now.

So while there are no certainties in baseball, I'd be as confident as I can be about anything in recommending that you try to buy low on Bush in leagues where his owner might be willing to part with him for less than he's worth.

[bleach168]

Just offered Buehrle for him.

[Irish]

Great post and good to hear as a Bush owner

[Chrisy Moltisanti]

Good info, thanks. I've been getting buy low offers and rejecting for some of the reasons you mention and his dips ERA is 3.07 (espn). I have Bush along with a staff including Sheets, Lowe, Mussina, Anthony Reyes and Jered Weaver. Not fun, but in 3rd place and should improve.

[colt4523]

I was thinking of offering suppan for him. Whats the chances of that being accepted?

[bellybrother]

Great post and good to hear as a Bush owner

Thanks for the validation. As confident as one is, one does begin to worry after a coupla beatins.

[bceagles04]

I have him in both my leagues and from what I can tell, he is indeed getting very unlucky. He has some really awesome stretches of innings, then collapses in others. That BABIP really tells the tale...I'm keeping him

[RC]

Where does Bush rank:

Bush
Meche
Olsen

[YardBirds]

Bush
Olsen



Meche

[RC]

Bush
Olsen



Meche

Surprised about that. I'm going to do a search, but I'd be curious to hear what the Cafe thinks of Meche...