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Postby Yoda » Sun May 27, 2007 5:06 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Yoda wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
yossarian wrote:Eh. I got him for nothing off the wire. I'll ride him as long as he's hot. As long as you don't have to drop somebody of value, I don't see what the problem is with picking him up and riding his hot streak. What do you have to lose with this? What's the point of arguing against picking him up, at least short term?


I guess I would say that if you are always chasing the guy who was hot last week, you are very much in danger of either dumping or missing out on picking up the guys that will be good for a longer period of time.


I like playing the hot hand. I usually have about two spots on my roster that I rotate in and out with whoever is hot. It works if you do it right.


I'd like to see the proof. Anything works 'if you do it right". But, this particular strategy assumes that you can predict the future. Since lots of evidence shows it is impossible to tell who will be hot next week based on who is currently hot, I have a lot fo skepticism about this.

To be clear, by proof, I'd want evidence that the pick-ups you make based on who you think has the hot hand consistently outperform a player randomly selected from among the top 25 players available as a free agent. If you are willing to participate, I'm willing to help keep track of the data.


Maybe I should clarify. I always leave couple of spots open for guys that I can rotate in and out. If a guy consistently stays hot like my free agent pickes this year: Ollie, Al Reyes, Curtis Granderson, Kelvim Escobar, then you don't end up playing that game.

You can't blanketly say these are the top 25 players that I will hang onto no matter what happens. You have to be flexible and picking up a hot player that stays that way for the year is a HUGE part of winning.

EDIT: The guys that those four replaced from the draft are: Anthony Reyes, Corey Hart, Chad Billingsley and Rafael Soriano. My team would not be nearly as good if I didn't pick up those at-the-time-hot players.
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Postby wrveres » Sun May 27, 2007 5:33 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote: I'm willing to help keep track of the data.


Your on.

Problem is, I don't have a league that I can play around with like that.
How bout we set up a standard 12 team/23 man/Roto/Half Season.
Set it up for auto-draft, and once it fills, the games can begin.

what are the guidelines for the challenge?
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Postby dooz » Sun May 27, 2007 5:53 pm

wow, this sounds like something i would be interested in
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun May 27, 2007 6:02 pm

Yoda wrote:Maybe I should clarify. I always leave couple of spots open for guys that I can rotate in and out. If a guy consistently stays hot like my free agent pickes this year: Ollie, Al Reyes, Curtis Granderson, Kelvim Escobar, then you don't end up playing that game.

You can't blanketly say these are the top 25 players that I will hang onto no matter what happens. You have to be flexible and picking up a hot player that stays that way for the year is a HUGE part of winning.

EDIT: The guys that those four replaced from the draft are: Anthony Reyes, Corey Hart, Chad Billingsley and Rafael Soriano. My team would not be nearly as good if I didn't pick up those at-the-time-hot players.


We may be talking about two completely different strategies. With 25 roster spots and only 15-17 starters, everybody makes roster and playing time changes.

The strategy I argue is highly questionable is one which regularly tries to find and play the hot hand at one or more positions. I think there's alot of evidence that this strategy is no better than randomly selecting a player from a pool of similary skilled players.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun May 27, 2007 6:13 pm

wrveres wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote: I'm willing to help keep track of the data.


Your on.

Problem is, I don't have a league that I can play around with like that.
How bout we set up a standard 12 team/23 man/Roto/Half Season.
Set it up for auto-draft, and once it fills, the games can begin.

what are the guidelines for the challenge?


Sounds like it might work.

Let's see how this works for guidelines. We'll use weekly rosters and each control one team, and do this for hittersonly. Use two util slots where we'll rotate players.

Each Saturday, you identify two players currently in the free agent pool that you think will be "hot" in the subsequent week. Pick them up and put them in your lineup in the util slots.

I will take the other team and randomly select two players from the free agent pool to pick up and put in my starting lineup util slots.

We'll track all pick-ups performance each week.

If you can regularly identify hot batters, by the end of the year your pick-ups should have easily out-distanced my dartboard pickups. If not,you'll see why index funds are as good or better an investment than relying on experts to pick your stocks.
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Postby wrveres » Sun May 27, 2007 6:18 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:If you can regularly identify hot batters, by the end of the year your pick-ups should have easily out-distanced my dartboard pickups. If not,you'll see why index funds are as good or better an investment than relying on experts to pick your stocks.


sounds good to me. :-)
Weekly is perfect.
23 man rosters should suck up the player pool, so it will be a true challenge. No other positions matter other than the UT spots.
The actual standings don't matter because we are playing the hot hand game only.
What if I want to keep a player longer than a week?

edit: looks like we have three guys already ..
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun May 27, 2007 6:26 pm

You can include the two guys on your util slot as part of the pool you can pull from. Same for my random picks
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Postby wrveres » Sun May 27, 2007 6:44 pm

Sorry, got distracted. I was watching Trevor pile on to that saves record! :)
Mariano who?

anyways, sounds cool. set it up and I'll play :)
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Postby dooz » Sun May 27, 2007 8:21 pm

Forgive me, I am a little slow.

So, the rest of the teams are dummy teams that should make no moves, as to not interfere with the player pool, right? Or would it still be effective if more than one team were employing the tactic?

If you need a dummy team, I can do that. I could see this being quite competitive though, which of course I would support as well.
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Postby wrveres » Sun May 27, 2007 9:07 pm

dooz wrote:Forgive me, I am a little slow.

So, the rest of the teams are dummy teams that should make no moves, as to not interfere with the player pool, right?

Correct. In theory you could just bench them. Their stats do not matter. They are just pawns to soak up the player pool.

dooz wrote:Or would it still be effective if more than one team were employing the tactic? I could see this being quite competitive though, which of course I would support as well.


I could see where it would be quite the success. very competitive. the more the merrier for me.
I guess my one question would be, do we have to pick up a player each week. It is not inconceivable that you catch two studs. There is 4 months of baseball left. Ya never know.

so that part in unclear.
how are we declaring a winner.


anyways, my hot pickup of the week, even though he is not a waiver wire player is Chone Figgins. Those K's from a few weeks ago are turning into walks. those walks will turn into hits. A 7 game home stand should help too. Willits and/or Kotchman would also be a must add, if they haven't already :)
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