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Batting order question.

Postby Erboes » Mon Jan 12, 2004 5:09 pm

What kind of weight, if any, do you fellers place on where a players hits in a lineup? If Soriano hits near the bottom does that drop him down a peg or two in your eyes? What's the rule of thumb about how many at bats a player will gain/lose depending on where they bat in the lineup? Thanks in advance for answering this very stupid question. No hijacking please.
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Postby ssjl » Mon Jan 12, 2004 5:24 pm

I project the Yankee lineup to look like this
Lofton
Jeter
Sheff
Giambi
Bernie
Matsui
Posada
Soriano
Boone
I would say considering Soriano led off for most of last year & will probably bat 8th this year he will probably lose 145-150 ab's-----Figure he misses a half dozen games or so. I think his numbers will drop significantly due to batting 8th & no protection behind him with Boone & Lofton. On Average if he bats 8th you have to figure compared to batting leaadoff he would lose close to 1 AB per game on Avg.
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Postby Erboes » Mon Jan 12, 2004 6:01 pm

ssjl wrote:I project the Yankee lineup to look like this
Lofton
Jeter
Sheff
Giambi
Bernie
Matsui
Posada
Soriano
Boone
I would say considering Soriano led off for most of last year & will probably bat 8th this year he will probably lose 145-150 ab's-----Figure he misses a half dozen games or so. I think his numbers will drop significantly due to batting 8th & no protection behind him with Boone & Lofton. On Average if he bats 8th you have to figure compared to batting leaadoff he would lose close to 1 AB per game on Avg.


That's interesting. If Soriano hits 8th he'd lose between 15-20% of his value, assuming he'd hit about as well as he did last season. So, conservatively, he could lose 6 homers, 15 rbi's, and 7 sb's. Wow, that's a big hit.

Conversely, if Nixon were hitting, say, fifth, his value would skyrocket, considering the extra at bats and whom would be hitting in front of him.

How many at bats do you think a player loses per position drop in the order?
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Postby mikcou » Mon Jan 12, 2004 6:14 pm

Erboes wrote:
ssjl wrote:I project the Yankee lineup to look like this
Lofton
Jeter
Sheff
Giambi
Bernie
Matsui
Posada
Soriano
Boone
I would say considering Soriano led off for most of last year & will probably bat 8th this year he will probably lose 145-150 ab's-----Figure he misses a half dozen games or so. I think his numbers will drop significantly due to batting 8th & no protection behind him with Boone & Lofton. On Average if he bats 8th you have to figure compared to batting leaadoff he would lose close to 1 AB per game on Avg.


That's interesting. If Soriano hits 8th he'd lose between 15-20% of his value, assuming he'd hit about as well as he did last season. So, conservatively, he could lose 6 homers, 15 rbi's, and 7 sb's. Wow, that's a big hit.

Conversely, if Nixon were hitting, say, fifth, his value would skyrocket, considering the extra at bats and whom would be hitting in front of him.

How many at bats do you think a player loses per position drop in the order?


I would believe that each spot you drop down that you would lose about 20-30abs per season...
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Postby HOOTIE » Mon Jan 12, 2004 6:48 pm

Erboes wrote:How many at bats do you think a player loses per position drop in the order?


Every position in the lineup is worth 18 Plate appearances in a 162 game season (162/9=18. So a drop from 1st to 8th would lose 126 p/a on average. Any drop in a lineup hurts any player, since you are taking abs away from him. It won't effect averages like average, oba, or slugging %, but it will effect counting stats like hrs, runs, rbis, and hits. So it's certaintly a negative to Soriano owners, if it indeed happens. I would never put him that low myself. Lofton with a 351 oba is a poor choice for leadoff.
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Postby grammysboy » Mon Jan 12, 2004 7:01 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
Erboes wrote:How many at bats do you think a player loses per position drop in the order?


Every position in the lineup is worth 18 Plate appearances in a 162 game season (162/9=18. So a drop from 1st to 8th would lose 126 p/a on average. Any drop in a lineup hurts any player, since you are taking abs away from him. It won't effect averages like average, oba, or slugging %, but it will effect counting stats like hrs, runs, rbis, and hits. So it's certaintly a negative to Soriano owners, if it indeed happens. I would never put him that low myself. Lofton with a 351 oba is a poor choice for leadoff.


I can't really see the Yanks moving Lofton to lead-off and bumping Soriano to eighth either. Granted, the guy had a terrible post-season, but you're still looking at a legitimate 30/30 threat you're going to take out of the mix 126 times for the season and replace him with a guy who will be stretching to reach 15/20. Doesn't make much sense to me.
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Postby Erboes » Mon Jan 12, 2004 7:14 pm

.351 is respectable for a leadoff hitter. I do think Lofton will lose his job, but I don't think that will be the cause of it.

126 AB's? That's steep. It's like he goes from a 40/40 guy to 30/30.
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Postby ramble2 » Mon Jan 12, 2004 7:25 pm

I put some weight on where a player hits in the lineup. Think 'Renteria'.

It's important to balance the loss of ABs with other considerations. If Blalock, for example, moved from 2nd to 3rd or 4th in the TEX lineup, then the loss of ABs might be offset by greater RBI opps.

If Soriano bats 8th this year, he might see more RBI opps. The main concern for me is his loss of SB opps. I'm not sure how much value he loses if he drops, but he's still a first-rounder.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Mon Jan 12, 2004 7:46 pm

Soriano in the 8 hole is not going to affect his value much at all. Remeber, he will run because he is in the front end of a 4 speed tandem of Soriano, Boone, Lofton, and Jeter. His RBI opps in the 8-hole might be higher than if he was in the leadoff spot. He will lose some ABs being lower in the order but I would think the better rbi opps woul compensate for this some. I do not see his value changing because of him batting 8th. Batting 5th between two slow guys would be another story, but that is not going to happen I believe. Be much more concerned about Soriano's lack of plate discipline. That is far more likely to be his un-doing.
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Postby Erboes » Mon Jan 12, 2004 7:51 pm

I'm not worrying about Soriano. I don't have him; hence, I don't give a damn. I'm just trying to fine-tune my projections, so I wanted to get the opinions of the crack staff here at the Cafe just how many at bats I should deduct. I still think he'll get at least half his at bats at leadoff, so I'll just lop off about 60 or so and adjust his numbers accordingly.
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