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Postby cookman » Fri May 04, 2007 5:49 pm

thedude wrote:His BABIP is crazy high right now, which is driving his batting average. It while regress to the mean eventually and he his batting average will drop off some.


Image


Lee's BABIP will always be well above the norm because he hits a lot of line drives and he has good speed. All of those things contribute to above average BABIPs. His BABIP is high right now because he is smoking line drives all over the field. He has 17 doubles on the year, which leads the majors. That shows he is solidly hitting the ball and isn't getting on with little bloop hits or getting lucky finding the holes in the infield.
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Postby ShadyChrs » Fri May 04, 2007 5:52 pm

Assuming 600 ABs, Lee has to hit .260 for the rest of the season to finish at .290.
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Postby CBMGreatOne » Fri May 04, 2007 6:19 pm

Laean wrote:
CBMGreatOne wrote:He's only hitting .426 right now guys, by the time this hot streak ends and he reverts to career averages, he's only going to be hitting like, I don't know .340 by the end of the year... :-b

(.290ish my rear end)


he hit an average of .378 overall in first three months of 2005, and still hit only .335 overall for the season because he hit .287 in the 2nd half. he may hit .340 at the end of this year, but it isn't a ".290ish my rear end" lock that he does after just one month of 2007.


I'm sorry, I didn't mean to mock you with the rear end line. I just really, very, strongly, extremely, totally disagree with you. I would think you'd disagree with yourself by now, eventually you will.

I'd be happy to lay 1000 dollars on the line as well.

There's no point in trying to prove D. Lee is a mirage. If anything, he's one of the guys whose start you SHOULD believe in.
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Postby Laean » Fri May 04, 2007 6:21 pm

cookman wrote:
Laean wrote:
CBMGreatOne wrote:He's only hitting .426 right now guys, by the time this hot streak ends and he reverts to career averages, he's only going to be hitting like, I don't know .340 by the end of the year... :-b

(.290ish my rear end)


he hit an average of .378 overall in first three months of 2005, and still hit only .335 overall for the season because he hit .287 in the 2nd half. he may hit .340 at the end of this year, but it isn't a ".290ish my rear end" lock that he does after just one month of 2007.


Alright, dude. This is getting ridiculous. I'll bet you a thousand dollars he ends the season with a BA above .290. He only hit .335 on the year. :-b Yeah, and he only hit 46 HR that year. Freakin bum.


i didn't say that he WILL hit .290 in that post did i? in fact, i said he may hit .340, didn't i?

and did what i write about what happened in 2005 not make sense? was it incorrect? you didn't even address that.

did i say he's a bum or that he sucks? what's YOUR problem?
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Postby CBMGreatOne » Fri May 04, 2007 6:36 pm

Laean wrote:
cookman wrote:
Laean wrote:
CBMGreatOne wrote:He's only hitting .426 right now guys, by the time this hot streak ends and he reverts to career averages, he's only going to be hitting like, I don't know .340 by the end of the year... :-b

(.290ish my rear end)


he hit an average of .378 overall in first three months of 2005, and still hit only .335 overall for the season because he hit .287 in the 2nd half. he may hit .340 at the end of this year, but it isn't a ".290ish my rear end" lock that he does after just one month of 2007.


Alright, dude. This is getting ridiculous. I'll bet you a thousand dollars he ends the season with a BA above .290. He only hit .335 on the year. :-b Yeah, and he only hit 46 HR that year. Freakin bum.


i didn't say that he WILL hit .290 in that post did i? in fact, i said he may hit .340, didn't i?

and did what i write about what happened in 2005 not make sense? was it incorrect? you didn't even address that.

did i say he's a bum or that he sucks? what's YOUR problem?


I think my main issue with your argument is that you are seemingly willing to simply discard the first half of his 2005 season as an anomaly.

There is no reason to discard this as an anomaly though. I'm sure if we "discarded" Pujols's April from last year, it would be easy to make a case for him being overvalued.

The first half of 2005 was Derrek Lee's top end production and MUST be factored into his performance average.

Even disregarding his 2005 season altogether, you have all star production for a good deal before and a good deal after.

Given 2005 also happens to be his last healthy full season, your argument for him hitting his career average is just weighted too heavily on long term trend observation (which I contend is moot, since he is palpably different now) and not keyed in enough on short term trend observation.

Either way, I gave you a two year composite of his last 324 healthy games played and demonstrated two year averages of:

110 Rs 39 HRs, 107 RBIs, and a .313 avg with 15 SBs, and that was about a week ago, before he raised this season's average to .421.

.290ish my rear end was included as hyperbole, but you are sticking pretty hard to some pretty questionable points.
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Postby Laean » Fri May 04, 2007 6:55 pm

CBMGreatOne wrote:
Laean wrote:
cookman wrote:
Laean wrote:
CBMGreatOne wrote:He's only hitting .426 right now guys, by the time this hot streak ends and he reverts to career averages, he's only going to be hitting like, I don't know .340 by the end of the year... :-b

(.290ish my rear end)


he hit an average of .378 overall in first three months of 2005, and still hit only .335 overall for the season because he hit .287 in the 2nd half. he may hit .340 at the end of this year, but it isn't a ".290ish my rear end" lock that he does after just one month of 2007.


Alright, dude. This is getting ridiculous. I'll bet you a thousand dollars he ends the season with a BA above .290. He only hit .335 on the year. :-b Yeah, and he only hit 46 HR that year. Freakin bum.


i didn't say that he WILL hit .290 in that post did i? in fact, i said he may hit .340, didn't i?

and did what i write about what happened in 2005 not make sense? was it incorrect? you didn't even address that.

did i say he's a bum or that he sucks? what's YOUR problem?


I think my main issue with your argument is that you are seemingly willing to simply discard the first half of his 2005 season as an anomaly.

There is no reason to discard this as an anomaly though. I'm sure if we "discarded" Pujols's April from last year, it would be easy to make a case for him being overvalued.

The first half of 2005 was Derrek Lee's top end production and MUST be factored into his performance average.

Even disregarding his 2005 season altogether, you have all star production for a good deal before and a good deal after.

Given 2005 also happens to be his last healthy full season, your argument for him hitting his career average is just weighted too heavily on long term trend observation (which I contend is moot, since he is palpably different now) and not keyed in enough on short term trend observation.

Either way, I gave you a two year composite of his last 324 healthy games played and demonstrated two year averages of:

110 Rs 39 HRs, 107 RBIs, and a .313 avg with 15 SBs, and that was about a week ago, before he raised this season's average to .421.

.290ish my rear end was included as hyperbole, but you are sticking pretty hard to some pretty questionable points.


you hit it right on the head. simply put, you think lee's first half of 05 is legit, i think it's an anamoly.

i think you already tried giving me that "last 324 healthy games played" #s before too, to which i just responded with his last 324 healthy games MINUS first half of 05 games.

i don't think it's questionable to believe that when someone hits .380 for half a season, luck had something to do with it.
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Postby cookman » Fri May 04, 2007 7:00 pm

Laean wrote:
cookman wrote:
Laean wrote:
CBMGreatOne wrote:He's only hitting .426 right now guys, by the time this hot streak ends and he reverts to career averages, he's only going to be hitting like, I don't know .340 by the end of the year... :-b

(.290ish my rear end)


he hit an average of .378 overall in first three months of 2005, and still hit only .335 overall for the season because he hit .287 in the 2nd half. he may hit .340 at the end of this year, but it isn't a ".290ish my rear end" lock that he does after just one month of 2007.


Alright, dude. This is getting ridiculous. I'll bet you a thousand dollars he ends the season with a BA above .290. He only hit .335 on the year. :-b Yeah, and he only hit 46 HR that year. Freakin bum.


i didn't say that he WILL hit .290 in that post did i? in fact, i said he may hit .340, didn't i?

and did what i write about what happened in 2005 not make sense? was it incorrect? you didn't even address that.

did i say he's a bum or that he sucks? what's YOUR problem?


The guy hit .335 on the year with 46 HRs and a 1.080 OPS, and you're knock on his season is that he hit .287 over his last 74 games? No matter he hit 18 HRs with an OPS over 1.000 in every full month over that same period.

I don't have a problem. It's just a dumb argument. Somehow his first part of 2005 was a total anomaly, as was his start last year before he got hurt, and his start this year. But his .287 over 3 months in 2005 obviously show he's only an average player.

I'm just waiting for his first ten-game slump for all these guys to screaming again that he's a fraud.
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Postby Laean » Fri May 04, 2007 8:09 pm

cookman wrote:
Laean wrote:
cookman wrote:
Laean wrote:
CBMGreatOne wrote:He's only hitting .426 right now guys, by the time this hot streak ends and he reverts to career averages, he's only going to be hitting like, I don't know .340 by the end of the year... :-b

(.290ish my rear end)


he hit an average of .378 overall in first three months of 2005, and still hit only .335 overall for the season because he hit .287 in the 2nd half. he may hit .340 at the end of this year, but it isn't a ".290ish my rear end" lock that he does after just one month of 2007.


Alright, dude. This is getting ridiculous. I'll bet you a thousand dollars he ends the season with a BA above .290. He only hit .335 on the year. :-b Yeah, and he only hit 46 HR that year. Freakin bum.


i didn't say that he WILL hit .290 in that post did i? in fact, i said he may hit .340, didn't i?

and did what i write about what happened in 2005 not make sense? was it incorrect? you didn't even address that.

did i say he's a bum or that he sucks? what's YOUR problem?


The guy hit .335 on the year with 46 HRs and a 1.080 OPS, and you're knock on his season is that he hit .287 over his last 74 games? No matter he hit 18 HRs with an OPS over 1.000 in every full month over that same period.

I don't have a problem. It's just a dumb argument. Somehow his first part of 2005 was a total anomaly, as was his start last year before he got hurt, and his start this year. But his .287 over 3 months in 2005 obviously show he's only an average player.

I'm just waiting for his first ten-game slump for all these guys to screaming again that he's a fraud.


this isn't albert freakin' pujols we're talking about here. not even vlad or mcab. he's never hit .300+ before in his career before 2005! and not even all of 2005, he just hit .300+ in HALF of 2005, in his NINE YEAR CAREER!

so when he hits .300+ for half a season total in a 9 year career, yeah, i'd say that's an anamoly. i guess that's just "dumb" though, huh?

i'm not saying he'll never be a 40+ hr .300+ guy, or that he sucks. i just want to see at least one more year of it before i go over to the side that says "yeah, derrek lee is a legit perennial 40+ hr .300+ avg slugger." but i guess that's just unreasonable huh?

we can just shelve this until end of the year. CBM, we can also shelve the arod v. pujols thread until end of the year and see who's right. it's obvious i'm not going to convince you right now, and you're not going to convince me right now either.

if you're right by end of the year, you can say "i told you so" as much as you want. i still think pujols will have a better season than arod if we discount april. i thought derrek lee was going to hit .290 preseason. obviously, i don't think he'll hit that now, now that he's had such a hot april start. (i don't think he'll hit .260 rest of the way to get a .290 avg for the overall season). but i do think he could hit around .290 rest of the way excluding april, which would result in about ... .312 avg for the overall season. if he significantly exceeds that, say he hits .340, i'll admit that i was simply wrong.
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Postby CBMGreatOne » Fri May 04, 2007 8:39 pm

so when he hits .300+ for half a season total in a 9 year career, yeah, i'd say that's an anamoly. i guess that's just "dumb" though, huh?


Yes, it's an anomaly, but it's still part of his composite production, if anything SHOULDN'T be discarded it's his top end production, because that is what factors most into the composite.

Just as he hit .280 in the second half of '05, so he hit .380 in the first half. Taken as a whole, you still have a huge, half-season-inclusive composite.

Removing his best production from the composite is even more consequential than removing his worst production, so as long as we're throwing stats out the window, let's throw away all prior Aprils, and then we'll get a .300 hitter over the past 8 or 9 years.

I get what you're saying, you're saying if you expect that D. Lee is gonna be what he was in 2005, you are setting yourself up for disappointment, but your argument is predicated on removing that half-season entirely, which is just not fair to Derrek, not to mention to the intent to make a lucid point.

He probably won't have quite as good a season as he did in 2005, but he is still a 3rd round value at the least, and is in NO WAY the same hitter that hit .280 for his career in Florida.
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Postby Laean » Fri May 04, 2007 9:04 pm

CBMGreatOne wrote:
so when he hits .300+ for half a season total in a 9 year career, yeah, i'd say that's an anamoly. i guess that's just "dumb" though, huh?


Yes, it's an anomaly, but it's still part of his composite production, if anything SHOULDN'T be discarded it's his top end production, because that is what factors most into the composite.

Just as he hit .280 in the second half of '05, so he hit .380 in the first half. Taken as a whole, you still have a huge, half-season-inclusive composite.

Removing his best production from the composite is even more consequential than removing his worst production, so as long as we're throwing stats out the window, let's throw away all prior Aprils, and then we'll get a .300 hitter over the past 8 or 9 years.

I get what you're saying, you're saying if you expect that D. Lee is gonna be what he was in 2005, you are setting yourself up for disappointment, but your argument is predicated on removing that half-season entirely, which is just not fair to Derrek, not to mention to the intent to make a lucid point.

He probably won't have quite as good a season as he did in 2005, but he is still a 3rd round value at the least, and is in NO WAY the same hitter that hit .280 for his career in Florida.


i would be fine with someone making the argument that derrek lee is now a reliable/perennial .300 hitter. i mean, i would still be more inclined to think he's a .290 hitter, but i think i could be convinced with the argument that he's now become a more polished hitter, he has learned to fix the holes in his swing, etc, such that a jump of .010 wouldn't be out of the question, even though his #s still don't reflect it as of yet.

yes, that is precisely my point. if we're giving him props for his accomplishments, of course i can't just say his first half of 05 was luck so lets disregard it or something. i mean, it's done, he's done it. i have to give him probs for that, and i freely do. but if we're talking about what he can reasonably be expected to do in the future, unless he shows another half a season like he did in 05, i'm not ready to say that he's a 40+ hr .300+ avg hitter year in and year out yet.

i don't get why you think i'm not making lucid points.


like i said, lets just put it to rest and we'll revisit this at the end of the season.
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