Derrek Lee

[poorlilrich123]

What do you see him doing this year? Do you see him approaching his 2005 numbers?

Here are my projections for him:
100r 190h 35hr 110rbi .320avg 15sb

[Laean]

just do a search. this has been discussed extensively already.

[jdsun1]

I woudl say the average could be higher but the homers wont be more than 25 which keeps his value lower than it really could be

[CBMGreatOne]

I woudl say the average could be higher but the homers wont be more than 25 which keeps his value lower than it really could be

It's still early and there's a lot of games to be played in Wrigley. He hit 40 in 05, I'd say 35 is just about right.

[Rounders]

I woudl say the average could be higher but the homers wont be more than 25 which keeps his value lower than it really could be

The numbers don't tell the whole story. Yes, he only has 1 HR, but he's been hitting the ball hard. The majority of the early games, the wind has been blowing in and has been cold weather. He's put several balls to the wall in Wrigley with the wind blowing in, so once summer hits, he'll start sticking them out (the one he hit out the other day was straight into the wind). Plus, up until '05 he'd always been known as a slow starter. I think he'll pick it up and hit around 35.

[jswede]

Derrek Lee has had ONE OUTSTANDING HALF SEASON in 8 years. He's had a couple of other good, not great, half seasons. Yet people consider him great and expect .320 / 35-40 HR. I don't get it.

He's a lifetime .279 hitter. He hit .380/26hr in the 1st half of 2005, then .285/19hr in the second half, yet that 1st half is what people expect from him. Looking at the numbers, I'd expect ~30hr and ~.280.

SEASON AB HR RBI AVG
1997 54 1 4 0.259
1998 454 17 74 0.233
1999 218 5 20 0.206
2000 477 28 70 0.281
2001 561 21 75 0.282
2002 581 27 86 0.270
2003 539 31 92 0.271
2004 605 32 98 0.278
2005 594 46 107 0.335
2006 175 8 30 0.286
2007 88 1 15 0.386
Total 4346 217 671 0.279

(the 2005 season has 'roids written all ov------ wait. nope, I'll not go there)

[bceagles04]

Derrek Lee has had ONE OUTSTANDING HALF SEASON in 8 years. He's had a couple of other good, not great, half seasons. Yet people consider him great and expect .320 / 35-40 HR. I don't get it.

He's a lifetime .279 hitter. He hit .380/26hr in the 1st half of 2005, then .285/19hr in the second half, yet that 1st half is what people expect from him. Looking at the numbers, I'd expect ~30hr and ~.280.

SEASON AB HR RBI AVG
1997 54 1 4 0.259
1998 454 17 74 0.233
1999 218 5 20 0.206
2000 477 28 70 0.281
2001 561 21 75 0.282
2002 581 27 86 0.270
2003 539 31 92 0.271
2004 605 32 98 0.278
2005 594 46 107 0.335
2006 175 8 30 0.286
2007 88 1 15 0.386
Total 4346 217 671 0.279

(the 2005 season has 'roids written all ov------ wait. nope, I'll not go there)

Awesome analysis. Thats always been my line of thinking with Lee...he's a good lock for .275 and 25 HR's. Not much else. That huge 2005 season is the outlier. I'm not saying it was steroids, but when predicting what kind of season he will have, coming OFF an injury, why people predict something similar to his one career year is beyond me

[nbb23]

Alright, so you are starting to convince me about Derreck Lee. While solid, maybe he is playing over his head right now. Based on his performance thus far would he be a good sell high? If so, who are some good buy low 1B to target (Berkman, Howard)?

[ShadyChrs]

A lot of people are predicting numbers closer to his career year then his average because that is how his numbers have been trending. Every year since 2001 he has increased his HR and RBI totals. It's not his power numbers that are a mirage, it's his BA.

[CBMGreatOne]

Derrek Lee has had ONE OUTSTANDING HALF SEASON in 8 years. He's had a couple of other good, not great, half seasons. Yet people consider him great and expect .320 / 35-40 HR. I don't get it.

He's a lifetime .279 hitter. He hit .380/26hr in the 1st half of 2005, then .285/19hr in the second half, yet that 1st half is what people expect from him. Looking at the numbers, I'd expect ~30hr and ~.280.

SEASON AB HR RBI AVG
1997 54 1 4 0.259
1998 454 17 74 0.233
1999 218 5 20 0.206
2000 477 28 70 0.281
2001 561 21 75 0.282
2002 581 27 86 0.270
2003 539 31 92 0.271
2004 605 32 98 0.278
2005 594 46 107 0.335
2006 175 8 30 0.286
2007 88 1 15 0.386
Total 4346 217 671 0.279

(the 2005 season has 'roids written all ov------ wait. nope, I'll not go there)

Awesome analysis. Thats always been my line of thinking with Lee...he's a good lock for .275 and 25 HR's. Not much else. That huge 2005 season is the outlier. I'm not saying it was steroids, but when predicting what kind of season he will have, coming OFF an injury, why people predict something similar to his one career year is beyond me

Well first off, you have to pretty much cross off the 2006 season because his numbers were obviously off due to injury. When he got hurt early in 2006 he was hitting about like he was in 2005.

He spent every year prior to 2004 in cavernous Marlins stadium. People predicted a breakout in 2004 because moving to Wrigley meant a ton more HRs. It didn't come until late in 2004 as Lee looked overmatched for most of the first half of the season. 2 HRs in April, 3 in May, 5 in June.

He exploded for 10 in July and 8 in August, finishing with 4 in September to finish with 32.

Then in 2005 he picked up right where he left off and put up MVP caliber numbers of 120/46/107/15/.335.

He was hitting .318 with good run production numbers when he got hurt on April 19th 2005.

This year he's healthy again, hitting .386 and is currently the third ranked 1B in fantasy.

If he's healthy, you SHOULD be predicting numbers that are about 90% of his 2005 totals, at an absolute minimum.

He is NOT a sell high, unless someone will give you third round value or better for him, because IMHO, that's about where he bottoms out for this year.

You don't seem to really know the story behind the numbers you're pointing to.