jswede wrote:Derrek Lee has had ONE OUTSTANDING HALF SEASON in 8 years. He's had a couple of other good, not great, half seasons. Yet people consider him great and expect .320 / 35-40 HR. I don't get it.
He's a lifetime .279 hitter. He hit .380/26hr in the 1st half of 2005, then .285/19hr in the second half, yet that 1st half is what people expect from him. Looking at the numbers, I'd expect ~30hr and ~.280.
SEASON AB HR RBI AVG
1997 54 1 4 0.259
1998 454 17 74 0.233
1999 218 5 20 0.206
2000 477 28 70 0.281
2001 561 21 75 0.282
2002 581 27 86 0.270
2003 539 31 92 0.271
2004 605 32 98 0.278
2005 594 46 107 0.335
2006 175 8 30 0.286
2007 88 1 15 0.386
Total 4346 217 671 0.279
(the 2005 season has 'roids written all ov------ wait. nope, I'll not go there)
Awesome analysis. Thats always been my line of thinking with Lee...he's a good lock for .275 and 25 HR's. Not much else. That huge 2005 season is the outlier. I'm not saying it was steroids, but when predicting what kind of season he will have, coming OFF an injury, why people predict something similar to his one career year is beyond me
Well first off, you have to pretty much cross off the 2006 season because his numbers were obviously off due to injury. When he got hurt early in 2006 he was hitting about like he was in 2005.
He spent every year prior to 2004 in cavernous Marlins stadium. People predicted a breakout in 2004 because moving to Wrigley meant a ton more HRs. It didn't come until late in 2004 as Lee looked overmatched for most of the first half of the season. 2 HRs in April, 3 in May, 5 in June.
He exploded for 10 in July and 8 in August, finishing with 4 in September to finish with 32.
Then in 2005 he picked up right where he left off and put up MVP caliber numbers of 120/46/107/15/.335.
He was hitting .318 with good run production numbers when he got hurt on April 19th 2005.
This year he's healthy again, hitting .386 and is currently the third ranked 1B in fantasy.
If he's healthy, you SHOULD be predicting numbers that are about 90% of his 2005 totals, at an absolute minimum.
He is NOT a sell high, unless someone will give you third round value or better for him, because IMHO, that's about where he bottoms out for this year.
You don't seem to really know the story behind the numbers you're pointing to.