Dugout wrote:Any insite on how this career 5.00 era, 1.5 whip and 5.2 SO/9 32 year old turned superman with a 2.91 era, 1.11 whip and 8.2 SO/9?
No way he duplicates last year but do you see him coming close? Most of the mocks I've seen don't believe he'll do it again since he's not being drafted until rounds 10-15.
Oh yeah, great forum!
The most important stat to look at is his 207 K's compared to only 56 BB's compared to 87/38 the previous year.
I see him being solid again this year but not as great as last season. I think maybe 17 wins is within reach for him.
Dugout wrote:Any insite on how this career 5.00 era, 1.5 whip and 5.2 SO/9 32 year old turned superman with a 2.91 era, 1.11 whip and 8.2 SO/9?
No way he duplicates last year but do you see him coming close? Most of the mocks I've seen don't believe he'll do it again since he's not being drafted until rounds 10-15.
Oh yeah, great forum!
The most important stat to look at is his 207 K's compared to only 56 BB's compared to 87/38 the previous year. I see him being solid again this year but not as great as last season. I think maybe 17 wins is within reach for him.
I got to agree with this statement. I wouldn't draft him anticipating the same level of success, but that's the same way I feel with Halladay.
There are three things his detractors site as evidence of him not repeating: He's never done it before, most of his success was against inferior competition, and he faltered down the stretch. I have to point out though that it doesn't matter that he hasn't done it before. Plenty of pitchers finally learn how to pitch at an advanced age (Moyer, for example) and they keep it up for more than one season.
As far as the inferior competition goes, yes, he did pitch well against Detroit and Cleveland; however, he did pitch some gems against some good hitting teams, such as 7 inning of shutout, 1 hit ball agains the Yankees.
He did falter down the stretch, but not that badly. He did end the season with a dominating game as well. His struggles can be easily explained by him never having pitched that many innings before. At least that is the way I look at it.
If you need pitching somewhere around the 12th round I wouldn't hesitate taking the guy.
j7 wrote: i wouldn't draft him too early, but if he's still around close to the last round, i'd probly take a shot
I agree that you don't want him early, but don't undervalue him. He's likely gone before I'm ready to draft him, but he's well worth more than a last round pick.
He's absolutely horrible, at least that's what I'm going to put into the heads of everyone else in my league. The guy had a masterful year, and although there might be some dropoff, you just can't discount how consistently good he was for the whole year. I won't hesitate to draft him next year if he slips into the 8-10 round range.
The guy also threw more games against Detroit and Cleveland than anybody else. I can't find the article now, but I think Baseballprospectus wrote on that.
Big Blue wrote:great april like always then "The Wall"
I agree....IF somehow he managers to be one your roster...let him get two good starts in in April...convince another owner that he will preform again...and the dump him.....
[b]Useless Trivia of the day[/b]
England's Worcester Canoe Club set the world record for paddling a hand-propelled bathtub. The 25 man team covered a distance of 55 miles, 425 yards in 24 hours on September 28 and 29, 1979.
Dugout wrote:Any insite on how this career 5.00 era, 1.5 whip and 5.2 SO/9 32 year old turned superman with a 2.91 era, 1.11 whip and 8.2 SO/9?
No way he duplicates last year but do you see him coming close? Most of the mocks I've seen don't believe he'll do it again since he's not being drafted until rounds 10-15.
Oh yeah, great forum!
I think the word was that he had developed a new pitch that was not necessarily an out pitch, but was keeping the hitters off-balance. You would think that if hitters would have caught on to it they would have done it in the second half of last season, so there's a chance he could be on to something. It's also possible that he's to the point in his career where he just gets it - the mental part of pitching. It's happened before....
There are tons of owners out there like me that have him super cheap. The trick is that while we have him at a bargain price, we are pretty much stuck with him unless we settle for less than what his probable worth would be because most owners (see above) heavily discount his good season last year and point to his career numbers. Fair enough. We'll just have to hope he's not one of those one-year John Burkett ressurection wonders.
I see him as not coming close to last year's numbers, but being a solid middle-of-the-road starter. If he can take advantage of that weak division he's in I suppose he could come close to last year's numbers.
That's the word I heard, too, a new pitch. Look at those K's, he had to have figured something out. If I could get him in round 10, I'd consider it a steal. Hitters will adjust, but even if he wins 14-15, he's worth that. Hell, Wood has never won more than that and everyone acts as if he's God.
MikeeDee wrote:The guy also threw more games against Detroit and Cleveland than anybody else. I can't find the article now, but I think Baseballprospectus wrote on that.
And what's incredible is he lost TWO 1-0 games vs Det and still won 20 games.
He's still in that division so he should be near the top in throwing vs those two teams again.
Cafe Home
Fantasy Football
Fantasy Basketball
Fantasy Hockey
by crapshooter » Mon Jan 12, 2004 8:52 am 
