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perplexed proposal

Postby hunglong » Thu May 09, 2002 11:34 pm

I'm a first-time, so bear with me. I'm in a 5x5 Rotisserie league---that's right, isn't it? it's not head to head is what I mean to say.

Anyway, I've been offered a trade

I get: Miguel Tejada, Fernando Vina

I trade: Luis Castillo, Josh Beckett


Ok, here's my situation. My power numbers are awful at the moment- I'm worst in the league in runs and RBI, but second highest in SB. The only thing that's keeping me in the mix is my pitching staff. I've been offering and counter-offering with this guy for a while because I really want Tejada and he already has Garciaparra on his roster so he's open to trades.

Benefits: I get an automatic increase in power statistics seeing as Tejada is at least a top ten SS in the league and Vina's power numbers are better than Castillo's and will be throughout the season. I'm not so worried about losing Beckett, assuming when he comes of the DL that he'll be just as good. My staff right now is Mussina, Bolon, Moyer, Reuter, and Sheets. Losing Beckett is not that big of a concern for me even though many project him to be a top phenom this year.

Disadvantages: There go stolen bases for the year. Castillo's leading my team with swipes this year by at least 10 bags. And he's consistently a 30-40 SB guy a year. Vina may get 20 if he's lucky. Also, run production would go down a little by losing Castillo.

So to any soothsayers: Is this deal made out for me? Or do I need to do some more shopping?
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Postby Arlo » Fri May 10, 2002 4:14 am

Welcome!

This trade depends on a couple factors (don't you hate when you don't get a straight yes or no answer? :-> ).

The main question here is: who are you playing at ss at the moment? If you have someone serviceable, I'd probably hold out for a slightly better offer - if not, then make this trade as soon as you can.

I agree with your analysis - you may actually be being a bit conservative. I'd rank Tejada somewhere from 4-6 among shortstops: behind A-Rod, Jeter and Nomar, and on a par with Rollins and Uribe, depending on your needs (some may disagree with these rankings, but that's part of the fun). I also think you're selling Castillo slightly short. He's an rbi killer, and his average isn't where it should be, but he's an absolute steals machine. I'd look for around 50 sb minimum this year - his current pace is somewhere in the neighborhood of 70. In rotisserie (yup - got it right :-> ), that's huge. Can you spare 40 more sb's?

In sum, you're giving up two very valuable players (my rear is firmly on the Beckett bandwagon, although I'm not among those zealots who expect a Cy this year...) for one terrific guy and a good but not great 2b. If you'll make a net gain in the standings this way by replacing a weak ss, you'll come out ahead. If not, you might try offering Sheets instead of Beckett and see where that takes you (again, assuming Beckett's blister problem doesn't hamper him the rest of the way).

Try inserting Tejada and Vina's stats into your standings instead of your current middle infield and see whather you'd wind up with more or less points. This won't be exact, naturally, but might give you a usefull ballpark estimate. And let us know who you have at short - this trade looks pretty tough to gauge.
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Postby hunglong » Fri May 10, 2002 5:30 am

To answer your question, I have Melvin Mora at SS and Orlando Cabrera on the Bench. Both these guys don't really do much for me. Mora's serviceable, I guess, his numbers are decent at a very shallow SS position. However, he plays for an awful team and his RBI numbers will suffer as a result. Cabrera's much the same way, in my view, because I don't really expect the Expos to keep up on this tear. And even so, he hasn't exactly been the rhyme and reason for their success.

That's a quick answer to your question. I don't really know which way to lean. At this moment, I'm leaning towards looking for something else because I really can't afford to lose so many steals in the long run. Remember, it's not neccessarily the position that matters so much as the productions numbers.

After I take a look at it, I'll go ahead and post those expected statistics numbers. And also, I might go ahead and post my team roster seeing as I'm sure many questions will come along the way.

Thanks,
Shreeps
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Postby Arlo » Fri May 10, 2002 2:57 pm

Tough, tough call. Since you have good negotiations going, you might be able to modify the deal in your favor a bit more, especially since the other guy wants to move Tejada. Perhaps try explaining that you unfortunately need those steals, and see what he says to Beckett straight up for Tejada?
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